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Sam Beltran

Southeast Asia remains comparatively confident in international cooperation even as scepticism grows over whether the United States or China should take a leading global role, a new survey has found.
Analysts said the findings reflected a long-standing regional preference for keeping strategic options open, particularly among smaller and middle powers wary of an international order dominated by either Washington or Beijing.
“Seeking Security and Opportunity in a Stormy World”, released this month by The Rockefeller Foundation, surveyed more than 35,000 people across 34 countries on their assessment of global affairs. Its Southeast Asian grouping covered Indonesia, the Philippines and Singapore.
Southeast Asia was among the regions most positive about whether global cooperation was working effectively, scoring 63 per cent compared with 37 per cent for the US and Canada, 32 per cent for Oceania and 31 per cent for western Europe.
At the same time, the survey suggested limited global appetite for either Washington or Beijing assuming a leading role, with 39 per cent comfortable with the US doing so and 37 per cent saying the same of China.
Another 61 per cent supported countries working together to address global problems without either superpower taking the lead.

The combination pointed to “a more fragmented global order”, said Alejandro Reyes, a senior fellow at the Centre on Contemporary China and the World at the University of Hong Kong.
“There is widespread recognition of both American and Chinese power, but much less willingness to accept either as the natural or dominant leader of the international system,” Reyes said.
Joanne Lin, a senior fellow and coordinator of the Asean Studies Centre at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, said comparable regional polling showed that both countries remained highly consequential even as concern about their influence persisted.
“In Southeast Asia, China and the US are still seen as the two most consequential powers, but being influential does not mean being welcomed,” Lin said.
She added that the economic and military weight of both powers meant their actions could sometimes be perceived as “narrowing the choices available to smaller states”.
“For countries that do not have comparable power, there is naturally some unease with an international order in which ‘might makes right’ or where the strongest powers can set the rules for everyone else,” Lin said, adding that Southeast Asian nations “increasingly want alternatives, more choice and institutions or coalitions that are not dominated by either”.
Charmaine Misalucha-Willoughby, an international relations professor at De La Salle University in Manila, said this preference aligned with the structural position of smaller states.
“As small and middle powers, Southeast Asia is predisposed towards cooperation, multilateralism and norms like territorial integrity,” she said.
The US-China divide
Country-level results showed that this desire for strategic space did not translate into a uniform regional view of either major power.
Among the Southeast Asian countries surveyed, 73 per cent of respondents in Indonesia perceived Washington as a major threat, compared with 31 per cent who said the same of China.
The pattern was nearly reversed in the Philippines, where 70 per cent called China a threat compared with 33 per cent for the US. In Singapore, the figures stood at 25 per cent for China and 41 per cent for Washington.
“The common theme is that Southeast Asia cannot easily be divided into pro-US and pro-China camps,” Reyes said, adding that several countries were resisting pressure to choose and instead balancing between the two powers on different issues.
Lin said these differences partly reflected national concerns, including Jakarta’s anxieties over US foreign and economic policy, and Manila’s long-standing disputes over the South China Sea and territorial sovereignty.
Singapore, meanwhile, maintained close defence and security cooperation with Washington without being a formal treaty ally, while keeping up extensive economic ties with China, she said.

Collins Chong Yew Keat, a foreign affairs, security and strategy analyst at Universiti Malaya, said the survey suggested a “temporary perceptual advantage for Beijing rather than evidence of an irreversible geopolitical realignment”.
He said Southeast Asian economies still relied heavily on Chinese capital, infrastructure, technology, industrial investment and access to its vast market. At the same time, concerns over US tariffs, political unpredictability, potential disengagement and developments in the Middle East had weighed on Washington’s image.
But that did not mean regional concerns over Beijing’s strategic ambitions had disappeared, Chong added.
“Economic attraction should not be confused with the disappearance of strategic apprehension,” Chong said.
Demand for middle power agency
The results also suggest that while middle powers in Southeast Asia remain tied to larger powers, there was a growing demand for them to exercise greater agency, analysts said.
“While middle powers are bound to the superpowers in more ways than one, they also recognise that a bit more agency will benefit them. Doing so is a way to protect against the future,” Willoughby said.
“Preparing for a world without the US or China is an insurance policy for middle powers,” she added.
Lin said there was likely a desire for a wider distribution of global leadership, even if it did not mean the emergence of a formal middle power bloc.
“Respondents are probably open to the idea that international cooperation does not always have to be organised around the two superpowers. That creates more space for countries and groupings such as Japan, the EU, Australia, India, South Korea, Canada and others to lead in particular areas, whether trade, climate, technology, development or security,” she added.
Asean could play a larger role provided it maintained sufficient cohesion and capacity, Lin said, adding that the objective was to “build a denser network of partnerships so that Asean countries have more options and are less dependent on any single power to promote greater strategic autonomy”.
Reyes shared this assessment, pointing out that an important opportunity existed for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to open doors to new partners.
“Asean does not necessarily have to see the international order as a choice between Washington and Beijing. Its traditional approach has been to widen its partnerships, preserve strategic space and keep Asean-based institutions relevant. The Rockefeller finding suggests considerable public support for exactly that kind of international cooperation,” he said.
However, Chong warned that while middle-power cooperation provided a strategic buffer, it could not replace the role and impact of major powers such as the US, including its military capabilities, alliance system and deterrent capacity.
“Southeast Asia may presently be more critical of the United States, but that does not mean it necessarily wants less [of] Washington’s role here. That remains the essence of Southeast Asia’s hedging strategy – and also a long-time dilemma,” he said.


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A recent Rockefeller Foundation survey shows strong regional belief in global cooperation and a reluctance to accept superpower dominance


A recent Rockefeller Foundation survey shows strong regional belief in global cooperation and a reluctance to accept superpower dominance.


Southeast Asia supports multilateralism, wary of US or China leadership: survey

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}A recent Rockefeller Foundation survey shows strong regional belief in global cooperation and a reluctance to accept superpower dominance

A recent Rockefeller Foundation survey shows strong regional belief in global cooperation and a reluctance to accept superpower dominance