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Junaid Kathju

Bangladesh’s tilt towards China has added a new dimension to security and trade in South Asia, signalling what observers see as Dhaka’s desire to be a strategic actor in the region and ease its overreliance on India.
The hedging policy comes after the fall of Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League government in 2024 amid a student-led uprising.
Under an interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, and then the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) after it came to power in February, the country’s diplomatic, economic and strategic ties with Beijing have deepened.
Both sides are preparing to launch a “2+2” dialogue covering diplomacy and defence, adding a new layer to bilateral ties that already span infrastructure development and trade. Humaiun Kobir, Bangladesh’s state minister for foreign affairs, announced the move after meeting Chinese Ambassador Yao Wen on August 30.
Shafi Md Mostofa, an associate professor specialising in South Asian foreign policy at the University of Dhaka, said the dialogue carried regional diplomatic implications and reflected a deliberate effort by Dhaka to diversify its external partnerships.
“China is indispensable for infrastructure, trade and defence modernisation, while Bangladesh also remains engaged with India and other partners,” Mostofa said. “This hedging strategy allows Dhaka to secure economic benefits and advanced technology from Beijing, while avoiding overdependence on any single power.”
The move highlighted China’s growing footprint in South Asia, he said, potentially reshaping power balances and forcing other actors – including India and the US – to recalibrate their approach.
“India’s role as Bangladesh’s immediate neighbour is undeniable, and Dhaka continues to cooperate with New Delhi on connectivity, energy, and security,” Mostofa said. “However, the procurement of Chinese fighter jets and deepening defence ties will heighten India’s sensitivities.”

Complex balancing act
Bangladesh has finalised an agreement to buy 20 to 24 Chengdu J-10CE 4.5-generation multirole fighter jets from China, valued at up to US$2.3 billion.
Mostofa said Bangladesh’s challenge was to manage parallel relationships by leveraging Chinese economic and defence cooperation while sustaining pragmatic engagement with India.
“For any Bangladeshi government, economic interests remain paramount, and China’s role in trade, investment and infrastructure makes it a critical partner,” he said.
A rupture with India is not on the cards, according to Mostofa, even as Bangladesh shifts towards a “more complex balancing act” taking into account its ties with China.
“Dhaka will hedge between the two, ensuring neither relationship undermines its sovereignty or development priorities,” he added.
Since Hasina’s ousting, Dhaka and Beijing have rapidly expanded economic and defence cooperation, signing at least 15 new memorandums of understanding and agreements covering trade, investment and other areas.
During Prime Minister Tarique Rahman’s visit to Beijing in June, 11 Chinese firms proposed US$9.21 billion in investment in Bangladesh.
Umer Karim, a political science and international studies researcher at the University of Birmingham, said the strengthening of the Dhaka-Beijing relationship indicated Bangladesh’s desire to emerge as a strategic actor in South Asia.
“Dhaka is looking to assert its strategic autonomy and to emerge as an actor in its own right on the South Asian political chessboard,” Karim said.
“Engagement with China is relatively a safe bet, as Bangladesh can get high-end defence products and also foster economic engagement. The traditional reliance on India as a security provider is indeed beginning to change, and Dhaka is showcasing elements of balancing behaviour in its statecraft vis-a-vis India.”

Diversified foreign policy
Karim said Indian apprehensiveness over Dhaka and Beijing’s defence cooperation meant Delhi would view the 2+2 dialogue as another attempt by Beijing to encircle India, further complicating ties between Dhaka and Delhi.
Relations between Bangladesh and India hit a nadir after Delhi allowed the exiled Hasina to remain in the country following her flight from Bangladesh. The new government in Dhaka is seeking her extradition for a court trial.
Jon Danilowicz, a retired American diplomat who has served in Bangladesh, said Beijing had played its cards well since Hasina’s downfall.
“Throughout the interim government period, China developed closer relations with all of Bangladesh’s political stakeholders, hosting delegations from all three major parties,” he said. “At present, there is a broad domestic consensus in Bangladesh about the importance of the China relationship.”
He added that as the BNP government pursued a “Bangladesh first” foreign policy, strong ties with China would remain an important pillar of its diversified international relations.
“No doubt, this strengthens China’s hand in the broader region, including those related to developments in Myanmar and the Indian Ocean region,” he said.
While India’s economic, security and geopolitical influence remains strong, the knowledge that Bangladesh can count on support from China allows Dhaka to resist overt Indian pressure, according to Danilowicz.
“It is up to India to decide whether it will seek to reassert its primacy in relation to Bangladesh or can accommodate itself to a more independent neighbour,” he said.
Bangladesh was looking to strengthen relationships with traditional and new partners, including the United States, Europe, Asia and the Middle East, Danilowicz said.

Nilanthi Samaranayake, a security analyst and adjunct fellow at the East-West Centre in Washington, noted that China was already the main supplier of military equipment to Bangladesh before Hasina was overthrown, pointing to the Bangladesh Air Force’s purchase of modern Chinese aircraft under an affordable package that included training support.
Even so, antagonising India was not in Bangladesh’s interests, and Dhaka’s engagement with China was a constant source of concern for Delhi, including when Hasina was in power, Samaranayake said.
“Yet Bangladesh needs to have as many partners as possible as it works to stabilise its economy and domestic politics after the turmoil of 2024, and to continue expanding its diplomatic and military presence in multilateral institutions,” she added.


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Dhaka’s pursuit of closer defence and trade cooperation with Beijing could further complicate its complex ties with New Delhi, analysts say


Dhaka’s pursuit of closer defence and trade cooperation with Beijing could further complicate its complex ties with New Delhi, analysts say.


Bangladesh draws closer to China in ‘political chessboard’ to balance India ties

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Dhaka’s pursuit of closer defence and trade cooperation with Beijing could further complicate its complex ties with New Delhi, analysts say

Dhaka’s pursuit of closer defence and trade cooperation with Beijing could further complicate its complex ties with New Delhi, analysts say