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Tom Hussain

Russia is confounding expectations that its influence in the Middle East would drastically decline after the downfall of Syria’s Assad regime in 2024.
At the time, Moscow operated about 100 military facilities in the war-torn country, following its intervention in the Syrian civil conflict from 2015 to prop up then president Bashar al-Assad in alliance with Iran and its regional proxies.
When Assad was forced to flee to Moscow, and control of most of Syria was seized by Islamist rebels led by current President Ahmed al-Sharaa, Russia looked set to lose the air and naval bases that enabled it to project power in the Middle East and North Africa.
Instead, President Vladimir Putin’s government has managed to hold on to its two most precious assets in Syria: Hmeimim airbase and a portion of the port in Tartus, Russia’s only warm-water naval base in the Mediterranean.
According to a deal announced by the Syrian foreign ministry on Sunday, Russia’s only two official military bases outside the former Soviet Union would be turned into “joint training and capacity-building centres, within new arrangements that preserve mutual interests”.
No further details were given, but Russian military contingents would reportedly remain at both facilities under the new arrangement.
Administrative control of both bases, however, will be returned to the Syrian government, along with the civilian airport at Hmeimim and a dedicated berth at Tartus port, dealing a hand that “reflects Russia’s disempowered status”, according to Caroline Rose, senior director of the Soufan Centre, a New York-based think tank.

Russia’s current goal was to hold tightly to its footprint, prioritising its presence along the Syrian coast to retain access to warm-water ports, Rose said.
Emil Avdaliani, professor of international relations at the European University in Tbilisi, said maintaining and repurposing the Syrian bases showed Moscow’s ability to preserve its strategic assets even after Assad’s fall.
This means Russia is now an “important secondary power” in the Middle East, “rather than a major power broker”, although the Ukraine war has reduced Moscow’s capacity for power projection, according to Avdaliani.
Rose said Russia was “playing a long game” as it was unable to substantially expand its presence in the Middle East at a time when the war with Ukraine had put enormous pressure on its personnel and resources.
Putin is seeking to exploit the loss of US credibility in the region since launching its war against Iran alongside Israel on February 28.
Analysts say Washington’s subsequent failures to ensure the security of the Gulf Arab states against Iranian retaliation and prevent the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have created more political space for China and Russia, although neither has the capacity nor desire to replace the US as the region’s security guarantor.
Instead, Russia is seeking to maintain its presence and partnerships with Middle East countries as the US recedes from the region, according to Rose.

As the world’s second largest oil exporter and a member of the Opec+ alliance with Gulf producers, Russia could “shape energy prices and output levels, ultimately counteracting the effects of Western sanctions” against Moscow, Rose said.
Due to the Russian Black Sea ports’ proximity to the eastern Mediterranean, Moscow is a major supplier of crude oil and refined petroleum products to Turkey and the Levant.
Russia is also the Middle East’s largest supplier and operator of civilian nuclear power reactors, demand for which is growing as countries in the region shift to renewable energy sources.
State-owned Rosatom has operated a reactor near the Iranian city of Bushehr since 2013. It has signed multibillion-dollar agreements with Tehran to build eight more by 2040.
Rosatom is also constructing two gigawatt-scale nuclear power complexes in Egypt and Turkey under deals valued at US$20 billion each, and has signed memorandums of understanding with its counterparts in Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Jordan for similar projects.
According to Avdaliani, Rosatom is a way for Middle Eastern governments to diversify their nuclear partnerships beyond Western and Chinese suppliers.

Several key attractions for Rosatom’s partners were that its deals did not come with “political conditionality” often seen in Western contracts, covering areas ranging from construction and fuel supply to training, and that the company was flexible about reactor sizes and financing arrangements, he added.
Rosatom’s expanding regional presence was part of Russia’s wider pivot towards the Global South following its near-total rupture in ties with the West over its invasion of Ukraine, Avdaliani said.
Nuclear power projects would fit in well with this approach as signatory nations would be locked into “multi-decade dependencies” on Russian technology, fuel and expertise, while also shaping local opinions in Moscow’s favour.
Russia is also a leading supplier of grain and other agricultural commodities to Middle Eastern markets, and plays an important role in the region’s food security.
As a leading producer of urea and sulphur fertilisers, Russian suppliers have helped plug supply shortfalls in the region caused by the closure of petrochemical plants in the Middle East due to the Iran war.
This represents a reversal of roles from when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, with disruptions to Russian production and the imposition of Western sanctions at the time prompting Gulf fertiliser manufacturers to make up for the shortfall.
The stage is set for a gradual resurgence of Russian influence in the Middle East, once the Iran and Ukraine wars wind down, according to analysts.

Moscow will have to navigate a region divided into three centres of geopolitical gravity by nearly three years of war: Israel and the Abraham Accords signatories, in particular the United Arab Emirates; Iran and the Axis of Resistance; and Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan through the recently signed Mecca Joint Defence Agreement.
The Putin administration has reportedly supplied Iran with upgraded drones and intelligence during its ongoing conflict with the US.
Avdaliani expects Russia to avoid exclusive alignment with any regional bloc, seeking to preserve its partnership with Iran while maintaining strong relationships with Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the UAE and “pragmatic engagement” with Israel and Pakistan.
Rose said Russia would aim to protect its access to warm-water ports, while using its levers of economic and political influence in the region. To achieve its objectives, Russia would rely on economic tools like grain exports, which have made it a pivotal player in regional food supply chains.
Investment in nuclear and logistical infrastructure in the Middle East, along with energy market coordination with oil producers in the region, would be Moscow’s way to expand its influence, “maximising on many Middle Eastern countries’ imperative to diversify relationships beyond the US”, according to Rose.


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A Syrian rebel fighter stands at an inspection checkpoint for incoming vehicles before a Russian flag and Russian soldiers behind manning the entrance of the Russian-leased Syrian military base of Hmeimim in Latakia province in Syria in 2024. Photo: TNS

A view of the Russian navy facility in Tartus, Syria. Photo: Reuters

Syria’s interim foreign minister Asaad Shaibani (centre) tours Latakia International Airport on August 9 to inspect facilities included in the memorandum of understanding between Syria and Russia. Photo: AFP/SANA

A Russian helicopter flies over the Hmeimim airbase located near the city of Latakia in Syria in 2024. Photo: AP

A tanker in waters off Imabari, Japan’s Ehime prefecture, carries crude oil produced from the Sakhalin 2 oil and natural gas development project in the Russian Far East. Photo: Kyodo

A view of Berth No 4, which was handed over by Russian forces to the Syrian government at the port of Tartus in Syria on Wednesday. Photo: Reuters

The entrance to the Port of Tartus in Tartous, Syria. Photo: Reuters

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Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un shake hands during the signing ceremony for the strategic partnership in Pyongyang on June 19, 2024. Photo: Sputnik/Kremlin/AP

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Russian servicemen train at an undisclosed location in Ukraine earlier in July. Photo: EPA/Russian Defence Ministry Press Service 

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Russian President Vladimir Putin (centre) with  Southeast Asian leaders at the Russia-Asean Summit in Kazan on Thursday. Photo: EPA

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Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim (left) during a meeting at the Russia-Asean Summit in Kazan on Wednesday. Anwar says Moscow has provided assurances to Malaysia on petrol, oil and gas supplies. Photo: EPA

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Two Russian military bases will remain in Syria as the region continues to recalibrate its relations with major powers amid the Iran war


Two Russian military bases will remain in Syria as the region continues to recalibrate its relations with major powers amid the Iran war.


Russia’s role in Middle East politics endures, shifts to being ‘secondary power’

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Two Russian military bases will remain in Syria as the region continues to recalibrate its relations with major powers amid the Iran war

Two Russian military bases will remain in Syria as the region continues to recalibrate its relations with major powers amid the Iran war