appConfigEntityId

bodyType

customContents

entityId

entityUuid

isVideo

articlePageQuery

article

articleSchemaContent

content

hooksArticlePageAdvertisementConfigArticle

hooksArticlePageFloatingButtonConfigArticle

appConfig

filter

json

liveArticle

Ushar Daniele

The crushing defeat of Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition in the Negeri Sembilan polls has raised doubts about his political strategy, as state rival but federal ally Barisan Nasional (BN) grows in dominance.
Analysts say BN’s effective cooperation with opposition party Perikatan Nasional (PN) could reshape Malaysia’s political landscape ahead of the next national election, due by February 2028.
BN won 18 of the 36 assembly seats in Negeri Sembilan on Saturday, securing a supermajority of 25 with PN’s seven, while PH managed 11.
In the last state election in 2023, PH won 17 seats, partnering with BN’s 14, while PN scored five.
The campaign, dominated by bread-and-butter issues including rising costs of living and issues of governance and political stability, could further test Anwar’s PH-BN unity government.

Analysts say the results signal voter dissatisfaction with PH’s state administration, while underscoring BN’s growing electoral strength. They question if the federal unity government would be politically advantageous for BN as PH’s ability to hold its ground weakens.
Sunway University political scientist Wong Chin Huat said BN’s strategy could be replicated in the next general election and Anwar’s choices had been stretched thin, with either an early dissolution of parliament or to stick to his guns on his mandate.
“This is very much a state referendum on national issues. While the cost of living plays some role, it’s fundamentally about ethno-nationalism,” Wong said.
Other analysts warn that the results show voters are no longer sold on sentiment and are increasingly judging parties on delivery and broken promises.
“Results and promises matter to voters, and no amount of sentiment will be enough to appease the electorate and sustain continued political dominance,” said Ahmad Mohsein Azman, a senior analyst at BowerGroupAsia.
PH must now reconsider its efforts to appeal to conservative Malay voters and rebuild its long-standing reform narrative that had distinguished the coalition before it became the ruling government, he added.
“PH should drop its efforts to woo conservative Malay voters and re-establish its reform narrative and momentum, allowing the coalition to reconcile with its voter base which has been fractured from infighting and resentment over the performance of Anwar’s administration.”

The Negeri Sembilan result followed BN’s landslide victory in Johor on July 11 where the coalition won 48 of the 56 state assembly seats while PH was reduced to eight seats, boosting BN’s standing within the unity government.
BN had lost power in 2018 after ruling the country for six decades. It joined Anwar’s bloc in 2022 after the last general election that resulted in a hung parliament.
Analysts say BN’s consecutive wins in two state polls are evidence of the party’s growing momentum ahead of the next general election.
Hafidzi Razali, chief executive officer of policy advisory firm Strategic Counsel, said identity politics had emerged as a dominant narrative in the Negeri Sembilan race, overshadowing campaign issues and shaping how voters aligned themselves across the major political blocs.
He said Malay-Muslim unity had allowed BN and PN to become the main beneficiaries, while some non-Malay support appeared to shift gradually towards BN.
“Voters who remained unconvinced were more likely to abstain than support alternative parties in significant numbers,” Hafidzi said.
According to Hafidzi, younger Malay voters have also shown signs of moving towards BN after many backed PN during the earlier “green wave” that saw the rise of conservative Islamic politics led by PN and Malaysia’s Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS) during the 2022 general election and 2023 state polls.
“This suggests that BN was beginning to recover ground within a demographic that had previously leaned towards the opposition bloc,” he said.

PH should reconsider its position within the unity government as BN continued to gain electoral ground at PH’s expense, Hafidzi said, noting that the arrangement could become increasingly untenable if PH remained unable to control its own political narrative while sharing power with BN.
“The longer the unity government lasts under these conditions, the harder it may become for PH to distinguish itself politically,” he said, warning that this could weaken the coalition’s prospects ahead of the next general election.
Ahmad Mohsein said this pointed to a return to a BN-led Malay political order while the informal cooperation between both blocs could shape the next national polls.
“Such endorsements without formal coalition partnerships are rare in recent memory and their viability in the months to come will underpin how the campaign for GE16 will be fought.”
Hafidzi said BN’s result could trigger a broader domino effect, with a possible Malacca state election expected to favour BN as the incumbent.
The next Melaka polls might be held as soon as September, with its legislative assembly likely to dissolve within the next three months, Chief Minister Ab Rauf Yusoh said on June 22.
He said the Melaka election must be held this year as part of the democratic process in accordance with the current administration’s term, set to expire on December 27.
For Hafidzi, consecutive wins by BN will damage PH’s political momentum and public image, and strain relations between the unity government and the cabinet.
“BN’s growing electoral confidence could encourage the party to push for an early general election if it believes the current momentum can be translated into further gains at the national level,” he said.


Pending US$12.3 million house arrest fine keeps Malaysia’s Najib in prison

Anwar was on song in India. Will Malaysia reap the rewards?

Malaysia’s Loke resigns as transport minister following Najib’s house arrest approval

Malaysia deploys air force aircraft for cloud seeding to combat worsening haze

Malaysia

What Negeri Sembilan loss means for Malaysian PM Anwar’s political strategy

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim. Photo: AFP

Voters in Ampangan, Negeri Sembilan, for Saturday’s state election. Photo: Ushar Daniele

Barisan Nasional leaders celebrate winning the Johor state election last month. Photo: Iman Muttaqin Yusof

Supporters of Malaysia’s Barisan Nasional coalition. Analysts say BN’s win in Negeri Sembilan points to a return to a BN-led Malay political order. Photo: AP

Barisan Nasional supporters. The party is growing in dominance after winning the Negeri Sembilan state election on Saturday. Photo: Facebook/barisanasional

Malaysia’s Anwar suffers another election loss to BN in Negeri Sembilan

Barisan Nasional supporters. Unofficial results showed BN taking an early lead in the vote count for Negeri Sembilan. Photo: Facebook/barisanasional

BN chairman Ahmad Zahid Hamidi. Photo: Facebook/barisanasional

Malaysia’s Transport Minister Anthony Loke, who is also DAP secretary general. Photo: Handout

Pakatan Harapan supporters attend a rally in Negeri Sembilan on July 23. Photo: Facebook/pakatanharapan.my

Mohd Afzanizam is hoping for a competent government. Photo: Ushar Daniele

Voters in Ampangan, Seremban, in Malaysia’s Negeri Sembilan state on Saturday. Photo: Ushar Daniele

Malaysia’s Anwar seizes on haj fund report ahead of Negeri Sembilan election

Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim speaks at a forum in Tokyo in June. Photo: EPA

Muslim pilgrims prostrate as they offer evening prayers around the Kaaba, Islam’s holiest site, in Mecca during the annual haj pilgrimage in May. Photo: AP

Voters waiting in line to cast their vote in Muar, Johor, on July 11. Photo: Handout

Malaysia’s ‘mobile electorate’ could swing Negeri Sembilan state poll

An aerial view of Port Dickson in Malaysia’s Negeri Sembilan state. Just shy of 890,000 voters are registered to cast their ballots in the state election on Saturday. Photo: Shutterstock

A young couple look out at the skyline of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, on July 21. Photo: EPA

US criticism of Malaysia’s Israel stance spotlights growing ‘disconnect’

Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim says Anwar said Malaysia’s policy on Israel has been well received by Malaysians. Photo: EPA

Network School, a private co-living and co-working community based in Forest City, Johor, Malaysia, was shut down last week. Photo: YouTube/Jake Explains

Protesters lie on the ground during a rally titled “March for Gaza“ in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, in August 2025. Photo:  EPA

This Week in Asia

Politics

News

Asia

Southeast Asia

PH must now reconsider its efforts to appeal to conservative Malay voters and rebuild its long-standing reform narrative, analysts say


PH must now reconsider its efforts to appeal to conservative Malay voters and rebuild its long-standing reform narrative, analysts say.


Anwar Ibrahim

Malaysian politics

Asia elections

Barisan Nasional

What Negeri Sembilan loss means for Malaysian PM Anwar’s political strategy

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}PH must now reconsider its efforts to appeal to conservative Malay voters and rebuild its long-standing reform narrative, analysts say

PH must now reconsider its efforts to appeal to conservative Malay voters and rebuild its long-standing reform narrative, analysts say