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Maria Siow

Asean’s optimism in concluding a long-awaited code of conduct (COC) for the South China Sea by year’s end is not shared by observers, who point to major differences of opinion between Beijing and the Philippines especially.
Analysts say any eventual consensus on a code is likely to be broad and symbolic, noting the importance of keeping dialogue flowing even as “negotiation fatigue” sets in.
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations and China were making “good progress” in negotiations, Philippine Foreign Secretary Maria Theresa Lazaro said during a media briefing at the 59th Asean Foreign Ministers’ Meeting on July 23, adding that all parties intended to finish the code “within the year”.
A joint communique issued on the same day echoed this optimism, with Asean ministers welcoming the “sustained positive momentum” in talks and the “significant progress achieved”.
The bloc said it “looked forward to continued efforts in endeavouring to conclude the negotiation of an effective and substantive COC that is in accordance with international law”.
Talks on the China-Asean agreement have dragged on for more than two decades, hampered by competing territorial claims, disagreements over whether the code should be legally binding, differing views on its geographic scope, the role of external powers and the definition of terms such as “self-restraint”.


Le Hong Hiep, a senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute and coordinator of its Vietnam studies programme, said a comprehensive and effective code was unlikely to be concluded within the next few months.
“The only scenario in which an agreement might be reached by year-end is if its scope and substance are significantly scaled back, allowing the parties to secure a largely symbolic diplomatic achievement,” Hiep said.
Ongoing clashes between the Philippines and China highlighted the urgency of finalising the code to manage tensions, while also exposing “the wide gap between the positions of the parties involved,” he said.
China and Vietnam, which were continuing major land reclamation and artificial island construction in the Paracel Islands and Spratly Islands, “are unlikely to agree to a COC that would constrain them before these projects are completed”, Hiep said.
Tensions between China and the Philippines remain high following a string of maritime clashes and water cannon deployments near contested locations such as the Scarborough Shoal and the Second Thomas Shoal, with both sides continuing to accuse the other of dangerous manoeuvres and illegal incursions.

Speaking on the sidelines of the Asean meeting, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said bilateral ties with the Philippines stood at a crossroads and warned Manila against allowing external forces to meddle in regional affairs.
Jaime B. Naval, an assistant professor at the University of the Philippines-Diliman’s political science department, said Manila’s chairmanship of Asean this year had helped sustain negotiations and kept the issue high on the bloc’s agenda.
“However, any substantive breakthrough depends less on the Chair than on the willingness of Asean and China to narrow their remaining differences,” he said.
“The challenge is no longer to choose between speed and substance, but to achieve both,” Naval said, noting that the outstanding issues were not merely “technical drafting questions” but reflected “differing legal positions, strategic interests and competing perspectives on the future regional security architecture”.
Even so, he said continued negotiations remained valuable for building confidence and reducing misunderstandings.
‘Disturbing Beijing’
Pou Sothirak, a former Cambodian ambassador and government minister, said that while Manila had shown eagerness to rally fellow Asean members against China, it had not done enough to “build strategic trust” with Beijing.
“On the contrary, Manila has been visible in disturbing Beijing,” said Sothirak, now a distinguished senior adviser to the Cambodian Centre for Regional Studies.
Describing Philippines-China ties as “murky”, Sothirak said it was unlikely that Manila could count on diplomacy alone to forge Asean unity and steer negotiations with China towards a code acceptable to all.
The South China Sea issue also concerned the contest for regional dominance between the United States and China, he said.
While Beijing considers Washington an external party, the US continues to conduct freedom of navigation operations and bolster support for its Southeast Asian partners.
“The South China Sea becomes a major flashpoint in the US-China geopolitical rivalry,” Sothirak said.

Carlyle Thayer, a Southeast Asia specialist and emeritus professor at UNSW Canberra, said “negotiation fatigue” weighed heavily on Asean negotiators.
“Prolonged COC negotiations are viewed as an impediment to Asean’s deeper engagement with China at a time when tariffs have been disruptive,” Thayer said, referring to levies the US had imposed on trading partners.
He said the recent uptick in momentum stemmed largely from US President Donald Trump’s decision to attack Iran and the resulting energy crisis it caused in Southeast Asia, particularly the Philippines.
During the first half of 2026, Manila increased the frequency of negotiations to monthly meetings, Thayer said, adding that the question of whether the code would be legally binding “is likely to be the hardest nut to crack” given the gulf between Manila and Beijing’s positions.
On July 10, Lazaro said that the Philippines viewed the 2016 arbitral award that found against Beijing’s claims as its “clear legal and policy baseline for engaging partners and pursuing the COC”.
China’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning, however, rejected the award as irrelevant that same day, calling on Manila not “to obstruct the COC process with the phoney award”.


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Efforts to finalise the code between Asean and China this year are hampered to a large extent by differences between Manila and Beijing


Efforts to finalise the code between Asean and China this year are hampered to a large extent by differences between Manila and Beijing.


‘Negotiation fatigue’ risks stalling South China Sea code of conduct progress

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Efforts to finalise the code between Asean and China this year are hampered to a large extent by differences between Manila and Beijing

Efforts to finalise the code between Asean and China this year are hampered to a large extent by differences between Manila and Beijing