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Ushar Daniele

Fissures along ethnic lines are being opened ahead of the Johor state election in Malaysia next month, as the Malay-nationalist Barisan Nasional (BN) moves to box in the Chinese-dominated Democratic Action Party (DAP), and political imperatives pit key government coalition members against each other.
Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim helms an uneasy coalition of erstwhile political rivals. He is seeking to keep his Pakatan Harapan unity government – with the DAP as a core member – on an even keel until national elections due in 2028.
But state polls threaten cleavages within that government, including in southernmost Johor, where elections set for July 11 have already seen ethnic divisions emerge as the safest vote-getter.
Johor has been a stronghold of BN and its component Malay party Umno, Malaysia’s longest-governing political coalition until it was unceremoniously removed from power in 2018 following a wave of corruption scandals.

DAP, a multi-ethnic platform mistrusted by Malays who perceive it as a threat to the dominance of their ethnic group, is also contesting 17 seats in Johor.
This week Johor’s BN chairman and caretaker chief minister Onn Hafiz Ghazi said his group would not cooperate with DAP, explaining it not as a racially motivated policy but “based on differences in approach and ideology”.
He added that it would not form a coalition government with any other political party if it managed to retain power after the state election.
Analysts read the tactic as a defensive move to shore up BN’s Malay base from the surging opposition bloc Perikatan Nasional, which is eating into its national vote share from the conservative Islamist right.
“The message is aimed at reassuring traditional Malay voters that Johor BN will not be politically compromised by DAP, while also preventing the opposition bloc from weaponising that issue during the campaign,” said Amir Fareed, director of strategy at KRA Group, a Malaysian-based public affairs and risk consultancy.

Stuck in the middle
The contest in Johor, whose future has been hitched to greater economic and transport integration with Singapore across the causeway, will not decide control of the federal government.
But the outcome could severely disrupt the unity coalition steered by Anwar, experts have warned.
A strong performance by BN could also offer flickers of hope for its former star party Umno – the “Grand Old Party of Malaysia” which was condemned to the doldrums by the shock 2018 election defeat and the downfall of its leader, disgraced former prime minister Najib Razak.
Johor could provide a launch pad for a wider political comeback for Umno and by extension BN as national elections hove into view.
“The strategy of BN’s ‘no-DAP’ stance works very well, especially in Malay-majority state seats,” said Azmi Hassan, a geopolitical analyst and fellow at the Malaysian National Council of Professors.
BN’s candidate list showed that of Johor’s 56 seats, 37 were allocated to Umno while 19 were for its component parties Malaysian Chinese Association and Malaysian Indian Congress.
“I am confident that Umno Johor is using this as its strategy for the no-DAP stance,” he said.

Anwar’s calculus has been complicated by the fierce competition from all sides at the polls, including from former ally and chief strategist Rafizi Ramli, whose own party, Parti Bersama Malaysia, is also contesting 15 Johor seats.
“The presence of Bersama would take away votes from Anwar’s Pakatan Harapan,” Azmi said. “The winner in this particular scenario would be Barisan Nasional.”
Pakatan Harapan is right to be anxious over its voters turning out at the polls, according to Wong Chin Huat, a political scientist at the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network Asia headquarters at Sunway University.
“No one expects them to win anywhere close to a majority, so who would be chief minister is a non-issue,” he said. “What matters now is whether its minority-liberal base would go out to vote in droves.”


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Ethnic rifts flare in Malaysia as Johor polls threaten stability of Anwar’s unity coalition

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Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim (left) and his deputy Ahmad Zahid Hamidi during state elections in August 2023. Photo: EPA-EFE

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The refusal to work with DAP could be a defensive move to shore up BN’s Malay base in Johor ahead of the July 11 polls, analysts say


The refusal to work with DAP could be a defensive move to shore up BN’s Malay base in Johor ahead of the July 11 polls, analysts say.


Ethnic rifts flare in Malaysia as Johor polls threaten stability of Anwar’s unity coalition

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}The refusal to work with DAP could be a defensive move to shore up BN’s Malay base in Johor ahead of the July 11 polls, analysts say

The refusal to work with DAP could be a defensive move to shore up BN’s Malay base in Johor ahead of the July 11 polls, analysts say