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Park Chan-kyong

After a year in office, South Korean President Lee Jae Myung’s efforts to improve relations with arch-rival Pyongyang appear to have stalled.
To break the impasse, Lee may have to take the big step of partnering with China and the United States to formally end the 1950-1953 Korean war, according to analysts.
Upon taking office, Lee pledged to pursue peaceful coexistence with the North after inter-Korean tensions reached their highest level in decades under his predecessor Yoon Suk-yeol.
“President Lee inherited a difficult situation in terms of relations with the North because Pyongyang had already defined South Korea as its ‘principal enemy’ and most hostile state,” said Koh Yu-hwan, professor emeritus at Dongguk University.
Although Lee had made clear that Seoul would not pursue German-style reunification through North Korea’s peaceful collapse – a scenario long suspected by Pyongyang – the North decided to sever its ties with Seoul, Koh said.
North Korea has amended its constitution to define relations with its southern neighbour as those of two hostile states, formally abandoning the long-standing goal of Korean unification while fortifying the inter-Korean border.
Pyongyang had also reportedly codified its status as a nuclear-armed state in its constitution, making denuclearisation talks politically and legally difficult, Koh said.
“South Korea’s efforts to engage the North in dialogue have led nowhere. The US is preoccupied with conflict in the Middle East, while China is facing its own regional tensions,” he added.
“Under these circumstances, there is little diplomatic room left for South Korea.”

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has further complicated Lee’s outreach efforts by accelerating the expansion of his country’s nuclear arsenal.
In response, Seoul has strengthened cooperation with Washington on extended nuclear deterrence and expanded trilateral security cooperation with Japan.
South Korea is also pursuing plans to develop nuclear-powered submarines and enhance its independent defence capabilities, including its “Three-Axis” defence system, an integrated military strategy designed to deter and respond to Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile threats.
Pyongyang has reacted sharply to these initiatives, reinforcing what many analysts describe as a self-perpetuating cycle of military escalation.
At a recent Workers’ Party plenary meeting, Kim reaffirmed his commitment to strengthening his nuclear arsenal and disclosed that a new strategic guided-missile cruiser under construction could displace 10,000 tonnes of water.
The meeting, held from Saturday to Monday, emphasised that North Korea would “continuously expand and strengthen its nuclear forces”.
Kim also called for expanding the country’s defence assets to a level capable of “overwhelming the world”.

Pyongyang has criticised South Korea and the US for convening the twice-yearly Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) meeting in Seoul this month, where both allies reaffirmed their commitment to denuclearisation on the Korean peninsula.
KCNA, North Korea’s state news agency, condemned the NCG as a “nuclear war mechanism designed to attack our Republic through a combined nuclear and conventional posture”.
It argued that such actions were “pushing the situation on the Korean peninsula closer to the brink of nuclear war.”
KCNA further accused the US and South Korea of expanding military capabilities, including Seoul’s pursuit of nuclear-powered submarines, while conducting military exercises and surveillance activities.
Oh Gyeong-seob, a senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU), said Pyongyang feared South Korean cultural influences, including K-dramas and K-pop, could undermine regime control.
“It needs to cut off all ties with the South to guard against threats to the regime, as many North Koreans are aware of South Korea’s prosperity and cultural influence,” he said.
To Pyongyang, improving ties with Seoul would bring few immediate economic benefits as it still faced international sanctions, Oh added.
“The existence of a hostile state in the South is convenient for Kim because it justifies strengthening nuclear capabilities and demanding absolute loyalty from the population in defence of the regime.”


‘Anti-imperialist alliance’
According to Yang Moo-jin, president of the University of North Korean Studies, South Korea’s most realistic option for now is to manage tensions while maintaining its commitment to peaceful coexistence.
“Thanks to the Lee government’s efforts, there has been no decisive escalation of tensions despite the absence of dialogue,” he said.
Yang noted that Seoul had halted provocative activities that were previously undertaken by both sides along the border, including propaganda leaflet campaigns and loudspeaker broadcasts.
Nevertheless, North Korea’s declaration that it would fully exercise its status as a nuclear-armed state reinforced the view that Pyongyang had no intention of returning to denuclearisation negotiations, he said.
“The messaging also appears designed to pre-empt renewed international attention on North Korea’s nuclear programme following the end of the Iran conflict,” Yang said.
“For the foreseeable future, the likelihood of a shift towards a dialogue-oriented environment appears low, as North Korea continues to prioritise strengthening what it describes as an anti-imperialist alliance with China and Russia,” he added.
Koh argued that US President Donald Trump would face criticism for applying a double standard if he sought to reopen dialogue with North Korea after taking military action against Iran over its uranium enrichment that had not resulted in Tehran having a nuclear weapon.
A peace-treaty process might be the only remaining diplomatic avenue given the collapse of inter-Korean engagement, Koh said.
He suggested that China, the US and both Koreas should explore ways to revive long-stalled talks to replace the 1953 Korean Armistice Agreement with a formal peace treaty.
“North Korea’s denuclearisation could then be addressed within a broader peace framework,” Koh said.


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South Korean President Lee Jae Myung speaks during a press conference at the presidential Blue House in Seoul on Friday. Photo: AFP

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un watches a missile fired from the destroyer Choe Hyon in April. Photo: KCNA/Reuters

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South Korea’s President Lee Jae Myung (right) with US leader Donald Trump and CEO of Google DeepMind Demis Hassabis (centre) during the G7 summit on Wednesday in Evian-les-Bains, France. Photo: Pool AP via AP

North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un (left) and US President Donald Trump shake hands during a meeting on June 30, 2019. Photo: AFP

South Korean Army K2 tanks fire during a military exercise at the Seungjin Fire Training Field in Pocheon, 30km south of the border with North Korea. Photo: AFP

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney (left) and South Korean President Lee Jae Myung during the G7 summit in Evian-les-Bains, France, on Tuesday. Photo: The Canadian Press via AP

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A test firing of a missile launch system is conducted at an undisclosed location in North Korea last month. Photo: KCNA via KNS/AFP

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (centre) observes a newly developed lightweight multipurpose missile launching system and multiple tactical cruise missile weapon systems on May 26. Photo: KCNA/Yonhap/dpa

(From left) South Korean President Lee Jae Myung, European Council president Antonio Costa and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen shake hands after a meeting in Brussels on Wednesday. Photo: AP

South Korean soldiers take part in a live-fire exercise at the Seungjin Fire Training Field in Pocheon, 30km south of the border with North Korea, on May 21. Photo: AFP

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North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (centre left) and his wife Ri Sol-ju (left) see off China’s President Xi Jinping (centre right) and his wife Peng Liyuan at Pyongyang International Airport on Tuesday. Photo: KCNA/AFP

A satellite image shows a nuclear material production factory in Yongbyon, North Korea, on May 17. Photo: Planet Labs/Reuters

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South Korean President Lee Jae Myung looks on as Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi speaks during a joint press conference in Andong, South Korea, on May 19. Photo: Kyodo

South Korean activists demand an end to military cooperation with the US and Japan during a protest in Seoul on May 18. Photo: EPA

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This Week in Asia

Politics

One way to break the deadlock is to revive talks between the two Koreas, China and the US to end the Korean war, an analyst suggests


One way to break the deadlock is to revive talks between the two Koreas, China and the US to end the Korean war, an analyst suggests.


South Korean president’s peace hopes dim as Pyongyang pledges arms build-up

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}One way to break the deadlock is to revive talks between the two Koreas, China and the US to end the Korean war, an analyst suggests

One way to break the deadlock is to revive talks between the two Koreas, China and the US to end the Korean war, an analyst suggests