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Jeoffrey Maitem

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr will travel to Russia next week for a summit with Moscow and Southeast Asian leaders in a visit analysts say will allow Manila to show it can fulfil its role as Asean chair while keeping diplomatic channels open with major powers, despite closer security ties with Washington.
While the trip is unlikely to signal a shift in Philippine foreign policy, observers say it will be watched closely in both Washington and Beijing for any concrete outcomes on energy, sanctions-sensitive sectors or wider strategic cooperation with Moscow.
Marcos is scheduled to visit Kazan from June 17 to 18 for the Asean-Russia Commemorative Summit, his first visit to Russia since taking office in 2022.
The summit marks the 35th anniversary of relations between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and Russia, one of the regional bloc’s dialogue partners.
Presidential spokeswoman Claire Castro confirmed on Thursday that Marcos would attend the gathering, adding that he was expected to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin on the sidelines.
“We will lead the review of the progress of our cooperation and relations with Russia. This will also include a discussion of the next steps to further deepen and expand the relationship between the Philippines, Russia and Asean,” Castro told reporters.
The visit comes as Marcos has expanded military cooperation with the United States, including new access sites for American forces and larger joint exercises, while also strengthening security partnerships with US allies such as Japan and Australia.
That marks a clear departure from the approach of his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte, who pursued warmer ties with China and Russia while seeking to reduce Manila’s traditional reliance on Washington.
“We look forward to welcoming in Kazan the heads of all Asean member states, especially the president of the Philippines, Ferdinand Romualdez Marcos Jnr,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in a statement on June 5.

Beyond the diplomatic choreography, analysts identify three questions likely to shape how the visit is read: how Manila uses its role as Asean chair to preserve diplomatic flexibility; what outcomes Washington would consider sensitive; and whether Russia can offer practical gains on energy, fertilisers and food security.
For Sylwia Monika Gorska, a political analyst at Britain’s University of Central Lancashire whose research spans international relations and East Asian geopolitics, the trip reflects Manila’s Asean responsibilities rather than a strategic pivot towards Moscow.
Framing the visit as a choice between Asean protocol and independent foreign policy created a false distinction, Gorska said, as Russia was one of the bloc’s dialogue partners and the Philippines was expected to play a leading role in discussions on bilateral cooperation.
But she said the visit still carried wider significance because Asean protocol was one of the ways Southeast Asian states asserted their autonomy when dealing with major powers.
“The Philippines is fulfilling its responsibilities as Asean chair, but it is also demonstrating that a close security relationship with the US does not mean allowing a single relationship to define every aspect of Philippine foreign policy,” Gorska said.
On Washington’s likely response, Gorska said the focus would fall less on the visit itself and more on whether it produced “concrete outcomes involving sanctions-sensitive sectors, Russian state-linked entities, strategic infrastructure, or sensitive technologies”.
Arnaud Leveau, a geopolitics professor at Paris Dauphine University, said the US could view the visit with particular caution given Manila’s exploration of Russian crude oil supplies that might fall within the orbit of Western sanctions.
“Given the current energy environment … every photograph with President Putin carries more significance than it would have three years ago,” Leveau said.
“So, I would expect from Washington a public silence and a private vigilance, notably on what is signed, not on what is said.”
Leveau said Beijing would probably welcome the optics of the visit if they reinforced its narrative that Asean did not want to be locked into exclusive blocs and continued to practise a form of multipolar diplomacy.
“But Beijing also knows that Russia’s influence in Southeast Asia remains limited and does not fundamentally alter Manila’s strategic posture,” he said.


Gorska agreed that Chinese policymakers were unlikely to mistake the visit for a strategic realignment.
“For China, the central issue remains the South China Sea. As long as tensions around Second Thomas Shoal, repeated confrontations near Scarborough Shoal and broader patterns of maritime coercion remain unresolved, the strategic incentives driving closer Philippines-US security cooperation remain fundamentally unchanged,” she said.
Gorska said those tensions mattered more to Beijing than a summit meeting in Kazan, especially as Manila had expanded defence cooperation with Washington and strengthened security partnerships with Japan and Australia.
Joshua Espena, an international relations lecturer at Polytechnic University of the Philippines, said Manila still faced the challenge of balancing support for regional efforts to resist China’s assertiveness against Asean’s long-standing emphasis on neutrality, dialogue and confidence-building.
“I am not convinced that Russia’s regional outreach in Southeast Asia will change Filipino views on major power competition, given the limited space for competition,” he said. “Russian foreign policy is path-dependent on its immediate neighbourhood: Eurasia.”
Energy is expected to be among the main practical areas of discussion. Castro said the Philippine government was assessing the feasibility of purchasing Russian oil, weighing potential economic benefits against shipping costs and the risk of sanctions exposure, adding that Energy Secretary Sharon Garin was considering options for fuel diversification and the energy transition with Moscow.

For Leveau, the realistic gains from the trip are likely to be modest and centred mainly on commodities, with energy, fertilisers and food security being the most obvious areas.
He said Russia could offer attractive prices, which would matter for an import-dependent economy facing inflationary pressures – though significant obstacles remained.
“Sanctions, payment mechanisms, insurance and shipping constraints impose clear limits,” Leveau said. “Trade between the Philippines and Russia remains small, and there is no deep strategic interdependence.”
Gorska pointed to fertilisers as an area where Manila might still see value in keeping economic channels open with Moscow, given Russia’s position in global fertiliser markets and the potential for supply diversification to cushion “future disruptions” to sectors “critical to domestic economic stability”.
Espena, however, cautioned against exaggerating the potential benefits.
“It is important not to overstate the gains of what remains a limited partnership,” he said. “Trade between the two countries has been uneven, and both sides have been careful not to become overly dependent on each other.”


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Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr and Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi shake hands before a summit meeting in Tokyo, Japan, on May 28. Photo: EPA

West Cebu Industrial Park is one of the Philippines’ key shipbuilding and heavy-industry hubs. Photo: Handout

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The visit comes amid expanded military ties with the US but is unlikely to signal a shift in Philippine foreign policy, analysts say


The visit comes amid expanded military ties with the US but is unlikely to signal a shift in Philippine foreign policy, analysts say.


Why US and China are watching Philippines’ Marcos Jnr at Russia-Asean talks

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}The visit comes amid expanded military ties with the US but is unlikely to signal a shift in Philippine foreign policy, analysts say

The visit comes amid expanded military ties with the US but is unlikely to signal a shift in Philippine foreign policy, analysts say