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Jeoffrey Maitem

Philippine Vice-President Sara Duterte-Carpio has twice in recent weeks urged the country’s armed forces to defend its sovereignty, in a carefully calibrated attempt to sound more assertive on the South China Sea issue without directly challenging Beijing, according to analysts.
While Duterte-Carpio did not name China, her repeated calls marked a tonal shift from her earlier approach, when she either avoided the issue or warned against letting it define Manila’s broader relationship with Beijing.
Duterte-Carpio is widely seen as the current front runner for the 2028 presidential race, raising questions over whether she would continue the China-friendly approach of her father, former president Rodrigo Duterte, or adjust it at a time of growing public concern over maritime sovereignty.
In a video message marking the Philippine Navy’s 128th anniversary on Wednesday, Duterte-Carpio praised naval personnel for their “steadfast commitment to defending our sovereignty and the integrity of our maritime territory”.

“Amid the challenges in our seas, you serve as the nation’s first line of defence. Your duty is no small task – protecting our territory means safeguarding the future of the next generation of Filipinos,” she said.
Earlier this month, Duterte-Carpio also urged members of the Philippine Military Academy’s “Talang Dangal” Class of 2026 to “stand firm against all threats to our sovereignty and our liberties”.
“Do not waver, even in the face of the most difficult challenges,” she said in a video message addressed to the graduates.
The language marked a noticeable shift from her earlier posture on territorial issues.
When faced with pressure to respond to Chinese harassment of Filipino fishermen and maritime personnel in August 2024, Duterte-Carpio defended her silence by saying foreign policy was not her role.
“We must also bear in mind that bilateral relations are not dictated by a singular issue or concern like the territorial dispute but rather by a comprehensive approach to consider a broader context of shared interest and regional stability,” she said at the time.


By June 2025, she had moved closer to a more overt position, acknowledging the 2016 arbitral ruling in favour of the Philippines, but insisting that “the problem” did not make up the country’s entire relationship with China and was no reason to “lean towards the US”.
Eye on presidential seat
Duterte-Carpio’s statements were made with an eye to her presidential run, said Edmund Tayao, a professor at the San Beda Graduate School of Law and president of the Political Economic Elemental Researchers and Strategists think tank.
“This is likely part of the preparation for 2028,” Tayao said, noting that the South China Sea issue had become “very important for voters”. “Still, it’s obvious she’s trying as much not to impair her obvious relationship with China.”
Unless Duterte-Carpio began addressing Chinese actions more directly, her remarks would remain largely symbolic, he said.
Rather than a shift, Duterte-Carpio was recalibrating her position, said Justin Keith Baquisal, a national security analyst and adviser at PSA Intelligence, a Manila-based strategic advisory and risk intelligence firm.
The vice-president remains cautious on national security issues – unlike some of her siblings, who have been more openly critical of the United States and supportive of China.

“She has been criticised before for not condemning China’s aggression enough. Given her foreign policy preference, she will avoid negative messages and not denounce China directly and stick to positive affirmations, such as her statement praising the navy’s defence of national sovereignty, without naming who … we are defending against,” Baquisal said.
Duterte-Carpio’s camp appeared to recognise that support for engagement with China had to be balanced with statements affirming Philippine territorial integrity, he said – especially with surveys showing deep public mistrust of Beijing.
“As the saying goes, you don’t want to be the fish that goes against the current of the river. She does not want to be turned off by China, so she will avoid confrontational rhetoric, even at some cost to her reputation on nationalistic issues. So her statement is a good compromise,” he said.
She does not want to be turned off by China, so she will avoid confrontational rhetoric
Justin Keith Baquisal, a national security analyst
Duterte-Carpio’s support for sovereignty was expected as she faced impeachment proceedings and remained a strong presidential candidate, said Chester Cabalza, president of the Manila-based think tank International Development and Security Cooperation.
“She’s playing both ends by being assertive to spell out early her foreign and security policies but at the same time she knows that China’s international leadership is changing the geopolitical landscape today,” Cabalza said.
“She may use her father’s playbook in her foreign affairs but I think she will tweak it based on the current rivalry of the two superpowers to secure the country’s own national interest.”
Duterte-Carpio’s perceived softness towards China was rooted in her father’s closeness with Beijing, he said, so Washington would need to “do a lot of catching up” if she survived the impeachment trial and became the leading candidate for 2028.


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The Philippines

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USTDA Deputy Director Thomas Hardy. Photo: USTDA 

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The vice-president’s calls to ‘defend sovereignty’ are an attempt to please voters at home while not alienating Beijing, experts say


The vice-president’s calls to ‘defend sovereignty’ are an attempt to please voters at home while not alienating Beijing, experts say.


Why Sara Duterte is changing her tone on Philippines’ South China Sea conflict

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}The vice-president’s calls to ‘defend sovereignty’ are an attempt to please voters at home while not alienating Beijing, experts say

The vice-president’s calls to ‘defend sovereignty’ are an attempt to please voters at home while not alienating Beijing, experts say