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Sam Beltran

Former Philippine vice-president Leni Robredo’s refusal to seek national office in 2028 has intensified the search for someone to unite the country’s fractured opposition against an early presidential bid by Vice-President Sara Duterte-Carpio.
Robredo, President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr’s strongest rival in the 2022 election and long seen as the opposition’s most recognisable figure, said she would not run for any state position when Marcos’ six-year term ends.
Her decision shifts attention to a thin bench of possible alternatives – including senators Risa Hontiveros, Bam Aquino and Kiko Pangilinan – and to whether any of them can turn anti-Duterte sentiment into a broader governing coalition.
In an interview with a local radio station on Monday, Robredo said she was “certain” about not running, adding that a return to national politics was “not in my horizon”.

Now serving as mayor of her hometown, Naga City, after a landslide win last year, she planned to seek a second term as “three years is too short” to accomplish her plans.
Robredo also pushed back against the idea that the opposition’s future depended on her alone, saying Filipinos should move away from the search for “one saviour” in politics.
“There is no such thing. No one has a monopoly on capability,” she said.
Her remarks have disappointed allies and long-time supporters who had hoped Robredo would return to the national stage after her 2022 defeat.
A March survey by polling firm OCTA Research released this week found that while Duterte-Carpio remained the top choice for president in 2028 at 33 per cent, Robredo had narrowed the gap, with 21 per cent saying they preferred her – a sharp rise from 8 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2025.
No one has a monopoly on capability
Leni Robredo, Naga City mayor
Robredo’s political party, the Liberal Party, said it respected her decision but hoped she would reconsider.
“Based on her rising survey numbers and her ability to inspire many Filipinos, we firmly believe that Mayor Leni Robredo is in a strong position to build a broad and formidable coalition,” the Liberal Party said in a statement.
Pole position
Pangilinan, who was Robredo’s running mate in 2022, warned in a statement after the interview aired on Tuesday that her refusal to run “may create a leadership vacuum that I am afraid cannot be adequately filled by other contenders”.
It also threatened to deepen the fracture among opposition ranks and potential allies, he said.
“The net effect will be the fielding of various political parties and groups of their respective presidential bets, further weakening our chances and delivering victory to our adversaries,” Pangilinan said.
“Today, given her rising poll numbers, I believe that Leni is in the best position to build the broadest and strongest unity.”
Political analysts said Pangilinan’s warning reflected Robredo’s unusual position in the opposition – but he might also be overestimating the extent to which any one figure could pull together a diverse anti-Duterte coalition.

“I understand Pangilinan’s concern,” said Jean Encinas-Franco, a political-science professor at the University of the Philippines Diliman, acknowledging that Robredo’s recent survey performance was “at least a scientific explanation” for why she remained a viable opposition candidate.
“But I believe that there’s a lot of space. [Robredo] categorically saying that she is not running leaves a lot of space for the political opposition to unite and to engage in dialogue and to strategise as to how they will reckon with the 2028 elections in terms of platforms, narratives, and potential candidates.”
While Pangilinan’s statement reflected how central Robredo has been to the opposition, “framing her absence purely as a ‘leadership vacuum’ may be overstated”, said Arjan Aguirre, assistant professor of political science at Ateneo de Manila University.
The issue, he added, was whether opposition figures “can collectively exercise leadership – through coordination, compromise, and coalition discipline – to avoid fragmentation”.
This includes existing efforts to unite across numerous policy agendas such as education, food security and governance reforms.
Uneasy alliance
Robredo’s decision to abstain exposes the weak political capital among individual candidates, according to Matthew David Ordonez, a political science lecturer at De La Salle University.
The country’s opposition coalition consisted of a “broad, uneasy alliance” between liberal, centrist and progressive forces, all of whom were ideologically diverse and occasionally had conflicting interests, Ordonez said.
“Either they find a figure as unifying as Leni Robredo, or they build a stronger network based on a more cohesive, integrated platform to counter the Duterte faction.”
The most viable candidate would be opposition senator Hontiveros, a key figure of dissent in the Marcos administration.
Hontiveros, who heads the Senate Committee on Women, Children, Family Relations and Gender Equality, led the Senate investigation into allegations of corruption and human rights violations among offshore gaming operators (Pogos) in the country, and has become a central voice in anti-corruption issues, including the billion-peso flood control controversy.

“At this stage, Risa Hontiveros stands out as the most immediate and visible potential standard-bearer, given her declared intent and consistent positioning as a critic of both Duterte-aligned politics and key policies of the current administration,” Aguirre said.
Aquino, who also served as Robredo’s campaign manager in 2022, and Pangilinan himself also had potential, he added.
“Ultimately, the field remains fluid, and the decisive factor will be whether these figures will converge behind a single candidacy or fragment into multiple bids.”
They cannot win on personality politics alone
Matthew David Ordonez, a political-science lecturer
However, the opposition faces more issues beyond choosing a standard-bearer.
“The opposition will need to go back to the drawing board and find a new unifying ideology. They cannot win on personality politics alone,” Ordonez said.
“They will also need to mobilise both the large unaligned segment of voters and some of the Marcos loyalists. Bongbong Marcos lacks a clear successor, making his loyalists ripe recruits for the opposition.”


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A March survey showed that the popularity gap between Leni Robredo and presidential front runner Sara Duterte-Carpio had narrowed


A March survey showed that the popularity gap between Leni Robredo and presidential front runner Sara Duterte-Carpio had narrowed.


Can Philippine opposition find ‘saviour’ after Robredo declines 2028 presidential run?

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}A March survey showed that the popularity gap between Leni Robredo and presidential front runner Sara Duterte-Carpio had narrowed

A March survey showed that the popularity gap between Leni Robredo and presidential front runner Sara Duterte-Carpio had narrowed