appConfigEntityId

bodyType

customContents

entityId

entityUuid

isVideo

articlePageQuery

article

articleSchemaContent

content

hooksArticlePageAdvertisementConfigArticle

hooksArticlePageFloatingButtonConfigArticle

appConfig

filter

json

liveArticle

Jeoffrey Maitem

The United States has begun pulling missile-defence systems from South Korea to feed its war with Iran, prompting fresh questions in the Philippines about Washington’s military commitments to the Asia-Pacific.
The transfer of Patriot batteries from the Korean peninsula, accompanied by reports that parts of a THAAD anti-missile system were also on the move, did not directly affect the US military presence in the Philippines.
But the episode has forced a question that Manila would rather not have to ask out loud: if America’s assets can leave South Korea, what exactly is anchoring them anywhere?
Analysts say the answer reveals much about the nature of US alliances in Asia and the limits of what treaty partners can actually demand.


South Korean President Lee Jae Myung confirmed on Tuesday that Seoul had formally opposed the transfer – and failed to stop it.
“We have expressed opposition to the relocation of some air defence batteries by the US forces here for their own military needs,” he said.
Lee acknowledged the limits of Seoul’s leverage, saying it was “a clear reality” that when Washington decided to move its own military assets, South Korea’s objections only went so far. He sought to reassure the public, however, that the withdrawal had not opened a hole in the South’s defences against North Korea.
For the Philippines, the implications were clear. If South Korea, hosting tens of thousands of permanently stationed US troops along the most fortified border on Earth, could not prevent Washington from taking what it needed, the limits of any alliance guarantee were suddenly very visible.
The comparison is understandable. But analysts say it misses a crucial difference in how the US operates in both countries.
Access, not arsenal
South Korea is precisely the kind of place the Pentagon reaches for first when it needs mobile systems fast. It hosts large concentrations of permanently stationed US hardware, including Patriot batteries that are explicitly designed to be picked up and moved. The Korean peninsula is, in a sense, a well-stocked strategic warehouse.
The Philippines, meanwhile, is not home to the kind of heavy, permanent force concentration that makes a country an easy source for emergency redeployments.
Under the bilateral Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement, Washington rotates troops and prepositions equipment at agreed sites across the archipelago, in a posture built around access and operational flexibility.

“If Washington needed missile defence assets quickly, South Korea would be a more plausible source,” said Sylwia Monika Gorska, an international relations specialist at the University of Central Lancashire who studies defence policy.
“The United States maintains Patriot batteries there as part of the layered missile defence system against North Korean ballistic missiles, and those systems are designed to be mobile.”
The Philippines has also become too important to US strategy to simply strip for parts, analysts say.
Washington has spent years building a military presence across the archipelago that now anchors its planning for the Luzon Strait, the South China Sea and any Taiwan scenario.
“The Philippines has become more, not less, important in recent US deterrence planning,” said security analyst Arnaud Leveau, a professor of international relations at Paris Dauphine University. “I would not overstate the risk [of redeployment] today.”

But flexibility cuts both ways. Capabilities that are hard to target are also, by their very nature, hard to tie down. What Washington can rapidly move into northern Luzon, it can move out of again.
“What the Philippines provides is an additional operational layer, allowing dispersed deployments that complicate an adversary’s planning rather than replacing the main force hubs in Northeast Asia,” Gorska said.
US military power in Asia is focused on Japan and South Korea. The Philippines provides a strategic outer arc, but one that was designed to flex.
Leveau said that under serious pressure, Washington would most likely pursue a selective rebalancing rather than any wholesale retreat, shifting the most transportable assets while keeping the strategic core intact.
“The posture would probably become leaner at the margins but remain firm at the core,” he said.
Asian allies cannot assume that US resources are infinitely available
Arnaud Leveau, security analyst
But focusing purely on where US assets are based misses the broader point: American missile stockpiles are running low, analysts say, drawn down by conflicts in other theatres faster than defence contractors can replenish them.
The longer the war in Iran continued, the more pressure it would place on US munitions stockpiles, said Sasha Chhabra, a Taipei-based security analyst – and the less capacity Washington would have to deter adversaries in Asia.
“Longer term, we need to think about the logic of using US$4 million missiles to shoot down US$50,000 drones,” Chhabra said, calling on Asian democracies to accelerate joint production of critical munitions.
After all, an ally whose defence depends on US interceptors is only as safe as the supply chain behind them, and that supply chain is now under severe strain.

Security specialist Chris Gardiner, CEO of the Institute for Regional Security think tank, offered a concrete illustration.
Australia, a close US ally investing heavily in missile procurement, has already seen deliveries delayed because American stockpiles are being prioritised for the Iran theatre.
“The US, having engaged Iran, must defeat Iran, and so its redirection of munitions and materiel to do so is the priority,” Gardiner said.
The Philippines, which has been rapidly expanding its own acquisition of US missile systems, should expect similar friction.

Washington may view the Korean redeployment as a logistical decision, but analysts say Beijing will treat it as a political one.
For the Philippines, that is the crux of the problem: any visible change in the US military presence, however limited, becomes ammunition in a broader information war over whether America’s commitments to Asia can actually be relied upon.
Leveau said the redeployment could either be read as a story of US overstretch or unassailable American power, with a military so vast and so mobile that it can fight in the Middle East and hold the line in Asia simultaneously.
Either way, the political message for the region was “unmistakable”, he said. “Asian allies cannot assume that US resources are infinitely available.”


Philippines weighs pardon for death row inmate repatriated from Indonesia

Philippines impeachment: is path now clear to convict Sara Duterte?

‘Open, close, reopen’: return of choking haze traps Malaysian schools in limbo

Donald Trump built a US$5 million White House helipad. Don’t expect Xi Jinping to use it

The Philippines

As US missiles leave South Korea, the Philippines asks: are we next?

Patriot missile launchers are seen deployed at a US military base in Pyeongtaek, South Korea, on Sunday. Photo: Yonhap/AFP

Filipino protesters shout slogans to condemn the Iran war during a rally near the US embassy in Manila on Friday. Photo: AP

US troopers in battle gear seen during a joint military exercise in the Philippines in 2024. Photo: AP

Smoke from an intercepted Iranian missile is seen in the sky above Doha, Qatar, last week. Photo: EPA

A Filipino soldier peers through an observation telescope on the Philippine-occupied Thitu Island in the South China Sea last month. Photo: Reuters

Indonesia is getting an aircraft carrier. The Philippines isn’t. Does it matter?

The Italian aircraft carrier Giuseppe Garibaldi pictured in 2016. Photo: AFP

A Philippine Navy AW159 Wildcat helicopter is secured on the helipad of the BRP Jose Rizal, a Philippine frigate, during a maritime cooperative activity in the South China Sea last year. Photo: AFP

Thai transport ship HTMS Chang (front) accompanies HTMS Chakri Naruebet (back) on patrol. Photo: Royal Thai Navy

A Philippine Navy AW159 Wildcat helicopter is seen in flight while the Royal Australian Navy destroyer HMAS Brisbane sails during a maritime cooperative activity last year. Photo: AFP

Members of the Philippines’ Naval Special Operations Group march during a parade to mark the country’s 127th Independence Day in Manila last year. Photo: AFP

Filipino sailors stand on the deck of the BRP Miguel Malvar, a newly acquired corvette from South Korea, in Subic town, Zambales province, in April last year. Photo: Philippine Navy/AFP

The Philippines says its communist rebels are defeated – but are they?

New People’s Army (NPA) guerrillas stand in formation at a base in the Sierra Madre mountain range, east of Manila, in 2017. Photo: AFP

A Filipino soldier watches a resident pass by on Thitu Island in the South China Sea last month. The Philippines has been pivoting away from internal security towards territorial defence. Photo: AFP

Fighters of the New People’s Army (NPA) conduct a training drill at an undisclosed location in the mountains of Sierra Madre, the Philippines, in March 2019. Photo: EPA-EFE

Supporters march in Quezon City to pay respects to the late communist leader Jose Maria Sison on December 19, 2022, two days after his death aged 83. Photo: AFP

Filipino soldiers march in formation in December 2017, after then president Rodrigo Duterte had ordered the military to suspend operations against communist rebels over Christmas. Photo: AFP

Communist rebel leaders Benito Tiamzon (left) and his wife Wilma raise clenched fists after a rally in 2016 outside the gates of the police headquarters in Manila. Photo: AFP

Then president Rodrigo Duterte salutes the troops at a military camp in Bulacan province in November 2017, a day after he had signed a proclamation formally terminating peace talks with communist rebels. Photo: EPA-EFE

Members of the NDF hold a rally in Manila calling for peace negotiations and socio-economic reforms in 2016. Photo: AFP

This Week in Asia

Politics

News

Asia

Southeast Asia

East Asia

South Korea couldn’t stop the pull-out. Now, Manila must figure out if it is indeed a strategic partner or just another supply depot


South Korea couldn’t stop the pull-out. Now, Manila must figure out if it is indeed a strategic partner or just another supply depot.


As US missiles leave South Korea, the Philippines asks: are we next?

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}South Korea couldn’t stop the pull-out. Now, Manila must figure out if it is indeed a strategic partner or just another supply depot

South Korea couldn’t stop the pull-out. Now, Manila must figure out if it is indeed a strategic partner or just another supply depot