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Park Chan-kyong

South Korea is watching with mounting alarm as tensions between China and Japan escalate over the Taiwan Strait, a development that threatens to test Seoul’s pragmatic diplomacy and its balancing act between Beijing and Washington, observers warn.
The dispute is unfolding just as Seoul has worked to stabilise long-strained relations with both regional powers, raising fears that renewed rivalry could force South Korea into unwelcome geopolitical crossfire, they add.
Analysts say the flare-up is particularly troubling because it comes at a moment when the United States is pressing Seoul to play a greater supporting role in any Taiwan-related contingency, including projecting the power of the 28,500 US troops stationed in South Korea beyond the Korean peninsula.
This pressure could complicate Seoul’s long-standing strategy of avoiding overt alignment on Taiwan while maintaining cooperation with both Beijing and Washington.
Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary. Most countries, including the US, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the self-governed island by force and is committed to supplying it with weapons.

In a related setback, Beijing notified Seoul that it had “temporarily” postponed a planned annual meeting of culture ministers from South Korea, China and Japan set for next week, South Korea’s culture ministry said on Thursday.
The postponement comes amid escalating diplomatic and trade friction between Beijing and Tokyo, triggered by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s recent suggestion that Japan could intervene militarily if mainland China attacked Taiwan.
China escalated retaliation on Wednesday by suspending imports of Japanese seafood after earlier warning its citizens against travel to Japan. Tokyo, in turn, cautioned Japanese nationals in China to avoid large crowds. Senior diplomats met in Beijing on Tuesday but failed to ease tensions.
Takaichi on Friday said she wanted “constructive” ties with Beijing and Japan’s stance on Taiwan remained “unchanged”.
“At the end of last month, President Xi [Jinping] and I confirmed the broad direction of comprehensively advancing our strategic, mutually beneficial relationship and building a constructive and stable relationship,” she told reporters.

Echoes of 2017
Beijing’s harsh rhetoric and economic measures against Japan mirror its retaliatory actions against South Korea following Seoul’s 2017 deployment of the US THAAD missile defence system, a move that triggered travel bans, cultural restrictions and informal trade barriers, analysts say.
The renewed dispute undermines Seoul’s efforts to restore trilateral cooperation among Northeast Asia’s three major players at a time of rising threats from nuclear-armed North Korea.
“Koreans are watching the dispute with growing concerns as it could drag South Korea into an unwanted flare-up,” warned Lee Wang-hwi, a political-science professor at Ajou University.
He added that “diplomacy is required more than ever” to find a face-saving way for Tokyo and Beijing to de-escalate, and Seoul could serve as mediator because it stood to suffer first from any spillover conflict.
Lee told This Week in Asia that China’s past economic retaliation against Seoul over THAAD “backfired” by failing to block the deployment while fuelling anti-China sentiment, particularly among younger Koreans.
According to the US-based Pew Research Centre, negative views of China in South Korea surged from 31 per cent in 2002 to 80 per cent in 2022.


Some observers say Seoul could see short-term benefits from the dispute, such as an influx of Chinese tourists diverting from Japan. But the long-term outlook is far less favourable.
“The Sino-Japan row would serve no purpose for the three countries whose cooperation is essential for stability and prosperity in Northeast Asia,” said Kim Tae-hyun, a political-science professor at Chung Ang University.
Seoul could raise its diplomatic profile by offering the two countries a pretext to step back “for the sake of regional peace and stability”, he added.
Others see China’s punitive focus on Japan as a strategic warning. Chang Yong-seok, a senior researcher at Seoul National University’s Institute for Peace and Unification Studies, said Beijing selected Japan for “exemplary punishment” to signal consequences for crossing what it considered a red line: Taiwan.
“This is an indirect warning to South Korea and other countries, and we cannot be at ease in the face of mounting tensions,” Chang said. Rising tensions, he added, left Seoul with less diplomatic room as it walked a tightrope between the US and China.
The row comes as South Korea and China have been cautiously mending ties after years of chill, marked by Xi’s visit to the country – his first in 11 years – for a summit with South Korean President Lee Jae-myung earlier this month.

In an unusual diplomatic gesture afterwards, China appeared to take Seoul’s side in its long-running territorial dispute with Japan over Dokdo or the Takeshima Islands, departing from its past practice of avoiding explicit comment.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said on Monday: “We urge Japan to repent for its history of aggression, stick to the path of peaceful development and take concrete actions to earn the trust of its neighbours.”
Meanwhile, the South Korean Navy has reportedly postponed the planned resumption of a joint search-and-rescue drill with Japan’s Maritime Self-Defence Force, originally set for later this month.
The exercise, conducted from 1999 to 2017, had been suspended after a 2018 military confrontation involving a Japanese patrol aircraft.
This year’s planned resumption – meant as a symbolic step towards restoring defence cooperation – was halted after Japan refused mid-air refuelling support for South Korea’s Air Force aerobatic team en route to an air show in Dubai, citing its flight path over Dokdo.
Despite signs of rapprochement, risks remain. Lee of Ajou University warned that South Korea’s plan to build nuclear-powered submarines, along with China’s construction of large steel structures in contested waters of the Yellow Sea, could reignite friction.
“As China wants other countries to respect its core interests, South Korea also wants it to do likewise – don’t do things that could stoke anti-China sentiments as during the THAAD crisis, and rein in North Korea’s nuclear ambition,” he said.

Kang Jun-young, a China expert at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, said Beijing was likely to continue with its overtures to Seoul while confronting Tokyo.
“It remains unclear how the China-Japan dispute will affect South Korea, but the Korean government needs to tread carefully to avoid giving the impression that it is taking sides or intervening,” he said.
In an editorial on Wednesday, the JoongAng Daily urged Seoul and Beijing to activate the high-level strategic communication channel agreed at their recent summit to manage escalating tensions and prevent further deterioration in Northeast Asia.
It stressed that South Korea’s nuclear-powered submarines were designed to deter North Korea and that its plans to reprocess spent nuclear fuel were for peaceful purposes.
“Seoul must clearly explain to China that these actions are not targeting China,” the paper said, adding that Seoul must continue pressing Beijing to use its influence over North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats.
Additional reporting by Agence France-Presse


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As China-Japan row escalates, South Korea fears being dragged into ‘unwanted flare-up’

Mainland Chinese tourists visit Sensoji temple in the Asakusa district of Tokyo on Thursday, amid tensions between China and Japan over the Taiwan Strait. Photo: AP

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has said she wants “constructive” ties with Beijing and Japan’s stance on Taiwan remains “unchanged”. Photo: Jiji Press / AFP

The US THAAD missile defence system is seen at a golf course in Seongju. South Korea’s 2017 THAAD deployment triggered a harsh response from China, including travel bans and informal trade barriers. Photo: Yonhap via AP

Dokdo or Takeshima Islands. China recently appeared to take South Korea’s side in its long-running territorial dispute with Japan over the islands. Photo: AP

South Korean President Lee Jae-myung and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping during the Apec summit in Gyeongju earlier this month. Both countries have been cautiously mending ties. Photo: dpa

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South Korea’s former president Yoon Suk-yeol attends his impeachment trial on February 11. Photo: AP

A protester wears a mask of former president Yoon Suk-yeol during a rally near the Seoul Central District Court on July 9. Photo: AP.

Yoon Suk-yeol (left) stands next to his newly appointed defence minister, Kim Yong-hyun, on September 6, 2024. Photo: Yonhap/dpa

Balloons with leaflets scattered by South Korea in areas near the border can be seen in this picture released by North Korean state media on November 17, 2024. Photo: KCNA/AFP

Japan’s renewed sovereignty push over disputed Liancourt Rocks irks South Korea, China

The Liancourt Rocks, called Dokdo in Korean and Takeshima in Japanese, observed from a Korean airline’s flight. Photo: AP

Japan’s National Museum of Territory and Sovereignty displays three separate sets of disputed islands including the Liancourt Rocks, known as Takeshima in Japanese and Dokdo in Korean. Photo: Julian Ryall

South Korean troops holding an exercise to defend the contested Liancourt Rocks, known as Takeshima in Japan and Dokdo in South Korea, in 2019. Photo: EPA-EFE

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US President Donald Trump shakes hands with South Korean President Lee Jae-myung at a ceremony in Gyeongju, South Korea, on October 29. Photo: Getty Images/TNS/AFP

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (second from right) inspects what state media described as a new nuclear attack submarine in 2023. Photo: KCNA/KNS/AP

Kim (centre) presides over the eighth congress of the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea in Pyongyang in 2021. Photo: KCNA/KNS/AFP

Mike Pompeo (second from right), then US secretary of state, exchanges documents with North Korea’s Kim Yo-jong after her brother Kim Jong-un (front left) meets US President Donald Trump in Singapore in 2018. Photo: EPA-EFE

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Protesters shout slogans, demanding the US not help South Korea acquire nuclear-powered submarines, during a rally near the defence ministry in Seoul, South Korea, on November 4. Photo: AP

South Korea’s President Lee Jae-myung and his US counterpart Donald Trump in Gyeongju on October 29. Washington and Seoul will work closely on the nuclear submarine project. Photo: AFP

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The renewed dispute undermines Seoul’s efforts to restore trilateral cooperation in Northeast Asia amid rising threats from North Korea


The renewed dispute undermines Seoul’s efforts to restore trilateral cooperation in Northeast Asia amid rising threats from North Korea.


As China-Japan row escalates, South Korea fears being dragged into ‘unwanted flare-up’

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}The renewed dispute undermines Seoul’s efforts to restore trilateral cooperation in Northeast Asia amid rising threats from North Korea

The renewed dispute undermines Seoul’s efforts to restore trilateral cooperation in Northeast Asia amid rising threats from North Korea