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Maria Siow

A near-incursion by Russian fighter jets into Japanese airspace last week was a bid by Moscow to intimidate Tokyo amid its strengthening ties with Washington, observers warned.
And without a breakthrough in US-Russia relations, few expect Japan’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to make much headway at easing the tension.
Tokyo said it scrambled fighter jets last Friday to monitor Russian warplanes, including nuclear-capable strategic bombers, which had flown close to Japanese airspace along its northern coast.
Russia’s Defence Ministry, in a statement reported by the state-owned RIA news agency, confirmed that its Tu-95 bombers had been escorted by jets from another country during what it described as a routine patrol flight over neutral waters.
The incident reportedly occurred just hours before Takaichi pledged to fast track Japan’s defence build-up. In her first address to parliament since taking office, she warned that military activities by Russia, alongside those of China and North Korea, represented a “serious concern”.

Japan’s Ministry of Defence released a map showing the flight path of the Russian planes off Japan’s west coast over the Sea of Japan﻿. It said the bombers were accompanied by two Su-35 fighters and had initially flown towards Japan’s Sado Island before turning northwards.
“Russia conducts daily military operations around our country while invading Ukraine – this is the reality,” new Defence Minister Shinjiro Koizumi wrote in a social media post.
Yoichiro Sato, a professor at Japan’s Ritsumeikan Asia-Pacific University, said that Moscow had flown bombers near Japan before, but the timing of last week’s manoeuvre was significant, coming just after Takaichi took office and before her scheduled meeting with US President Donald Trump.
Russia is trying to intimidate Japan against enhancing its alliance with the US
Yoichiro Sato, a professor of Asia-Pacific studies
“[This] suggests Russia is trying to intimidate Japan against enhancing its alliance with the US,” Sato said. “This is likely counterproductive, as the domestic public opinion will support stronger defence that Takaichi pursues.”
During Takaichi’s first summit with Trump on Tuesday, both leaders agreed to strengthen the deterrence and response capabilities of the bilateral alliance.
Tokyo also made clear it would take the initiative to increase defence spending. Public support for higher military expenditure in Japan has risen in recent years: a Yomiuri Shimbun poll in April found that 53 per cent of respondents supported the government’s plan to expand the military budget.
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On Wednesday, Koizumi told his visiting US counterpart, Pete Hegseth, that Japan would raise its defence budget to 2 per cent of its gross domestic product by the end of this financial year, two years ahead of its previous commitment.
Colder than Abe?
Although Takaichi was a protege of the late Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe, Sato said she was unlikely to continue with her mentor’s “flirtation” with Russia.
“The hardline [position] against Russia, which resulted in Japan’s joining of the Western sanctions against Russia during the Fumio Kishida administration, is likely to be maintained by Takaichi,” Sato said.
Abe met Russian leader Vladimir Putin more than two dozen times over the course of the his second term as Japan’s prime minister, from 2012 to 2020.
Apart from inviting Putin to his hometown of Nagato and attending the opening ceremony of the Sochi Winter Olympics in 2014 amid a boycott by Western leaders, Abe also worked to boost economic ties with Moscow, especially in the Russian Far East.


He also continued negotiations with Moscow on the disputed islands known as the Northern Territories in Japan and the Southern Kurils in Russia.
Artyom Lukin, a professor at Russia’s Far Eastern Federal University in Vladivostok, said Takaichi’s leadership was unlikely to significantly alter Russia-Japan ties.
“Political relations between Japan and Russia have already been virtually frozen under the previous prime ministers … Neither Japan nor Russia see each other as foreign policy priorities. It will not change under Takaichi,” Lukin said.
Tokyo’s behaviour towards Moscow would also depend on the state of relations between the US and Russia, he added. “If Trump makes a deal with Putin, Japan-Russia relations are likely to improve as well. If US-Russia relations deteriorate, Tokyo will follow suit.”
Ties between Washington and Moscow remain largely adversarial, driven by Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine, with the US implementing a new round of sanctions targeting Russian oil on October 22.
Following a phone call with Putin on October 16, Trump announced his intention to meet the Russian leader in Budapest within two weeks to discuss ending the war. But days later, on October 22, Trump called off the planned summit, stating that he did not want a “wasted meeting” or a “waste of time”.

Lukin said a key point to watch was whether Takaichi’s government significantly reduced or even halted purchases of Russian liquefied natural gas from Sakhalin﻿.
“If it happens … the last major economic link between Russia and Japan will be severed. It is not likely to happen in the short term though,” Lukin predicted.
Washington has been urging Tokyo to end imports of Russian energy to strengthen sanctions on Moscow over its war in Ukraine that began in 2022.
On Tuesday, Takaichi told Trump that Japan planned to continue importing Russian gas for now, warning that stopping imports could risk domestic power shortages, according to Japanese media citing government sources.
Last year, Russia accounted for 8.6 per cent of Japan’s total LNG imports, which are mainly used for thermal power generation and city gas.
The gas is sourced from the Sakhalin 2 project in the Russian Far East. Two Japanese firms still hold stakes in the project even after British oil giant Shell pulled out following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Meanwhile, India, seen as “intimidated” by Trump’s tariff measures, was expected to stop new Russian oil purchases and turn to alternatives from the Middle East, Sato said. “Japan is not off the hook either,” he added.
Additional reporting by Reuters


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A Tu-95 bomber taxis to take off for a planned flight over the Sea of ​​Japan in a still from a video distributed on Friday. Photo: Russian Defence Ministry Press Service/AP

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi gestures as US President Donald Trump delivers a speech on board the aircraft carrier USS George Washington on Tuesday. Photo: AP

Japan’s Defence Minister Shinjiro Koizumi (right) shakes hands with US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth after a joint press conference in Tokyo on Wednesday. Photo: Reuters

An aerial view of the liquefaction plant in the Sakhalin-2 project. Photo: AP

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Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi (right) and US President Donald Trump shake hands ahead of their summit in Tokyo on Tuesday. Photo: Kyodo

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (left) shakes hands with Trump at the White House in February 2017. Photo: Kyodo

Takaichi gifts Trump a gold-plated golf ball and a putter owned by Abe in Tokyo on Tuesday. Photo: X/Margo Martin/Reuters

Takaichi gestures as Trump delivers a speech on board the USS George Washington aircraft carrier at the US naval base in Yokosuka, Japan, on Tuesday. Photo: AFP/Getty Images/TNS

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US President Donald Trump shakes hands with Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi ahead of the Japan-US summit in Tokyo on Tuesday.  Photo: EPA

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Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi delivers a speech in parliament in Tokyo on Friday. Photo: AFP

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Sanae Takaichi is unlikely to push to improve ties with Moscow, virtually frozen under previous prime ministers, experts say


Sanae Takaichi is unlikely to push to improve ties with Moscow, virtually frozen under previous prime ministers, experts say.


Was Russian jet fly-past a bid to intimidate Japan into cooling ties with US?

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Sanae Takaichi is unlikely to push to improve ties with Moscow, virtually frozen under previous prime ministers, experts say

Sanae Takaichi is unlikely to push to improve ties with Moscow, virtually frozen under previous prime ministers, experts say