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Anand Mathai

As the streets of Dili thrum with anticipation, East Timor is preparing for a diplomatic victory decades in the making.
Next weekend, Asia’s youngest nation is set to take its place as the 11th member of Asean – concluding a campaign for acceptance hard won through an unflinching belief in its own destiny.
For the country of some 1.4 million people on the eastern half of Timor island, it represents both a declaration of belonging and an affirmation that its future lies squarely within Southeast Asia.
“Asean accession has been East Timor’s major foreign policy ambition since the restoration of independence,” said Michael Leach, a professor of politics and international relations at Australia’s Swinburne University of Technology and a co-founder of the Timor-Leste Studies Association. “It unites all major parties and key political figures.”


The country, officially known as Timor-Leste, won its independence in May 2002 following centuries of Portuguese colonisation and a brutal Indonesian occupation that lasted more than 20 years.
In the decades since, it has built democratic institutions, nurtured civic life and strived to find its place in the world. But its economy, by far the smallest in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, remains highly dependent on oil and gas and has struggled to diversify.
Yet for Dili, joining the regional bloc is as much about political belonging as it is about economics.
Our drive to Asean membership is a strategic choice
East Timor’s President Jose Ramos-Horta
“Our drive to Asean membership is a strategic choice,” President Jose Ramos-Horta, one of the nation’s founding fathers and a Nobel Peace Prize laureate, told the Asean Future Forum in February. “[It’s] a commitment to our future, and a recognition of our shared destiny with our Southeast Asian neighbours.”
Still, if the struggle for membership was long and arduous, the demands of belonging will be harder still. Being part of Asean requires not just symbolic alignment but active participation: implementing trade rules, attending dozens of meetings a year and holding its own among much larger peers.
For the bloc, integrating a new member without weakening internal cohesion will be a challenge, as will ensuring its inclusion pays economic and institutional dividends.

Few personify the generational stakes of this transition more vividly than Ivo Ribeiro, 23, who was born just a handful of months before independent East Timor came into being.
He forms part of a generation who have only ever known independence, experiencing their young nation’s growing pains first hand.
The Timorese researcher recently published a strategy brief with the Washington-based National Bureau of Asian Research outlining how his country’s government might extract the greatest benefit from Asean membership – and he is clear-eyed about what lies ahead.
“Joining Asean isn’t a development guarantee,” Ribeiro, who is currently studying economics in the US, told This Week in Asia. “It’s a way to develop East Timor, but we still have to do our part: build institutions, protect property rights, create a real business environment and invest in people.”
‘Road to heaven’
East Timor first applied to join Asean in 2011, but its candidacy quickly became bogged down in questions about the country’s readiness.
Behind closed doors, some member states doubted whether the young country had the administrative heft, human capital or institutional maturity to shoulder the bloc’s obligations. Could Dili implement complex trade agreements? Did it have the capacity to keep up?
“The hesitation over East Timor’s membership reflected real concerns,” said Joanne Lin, co-coordinator of the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute’s Asean Studies Centre in Singapore and a former head of external relations at the Asean Secretariat.
“In hindsight, the delay did not undermine Asean’s inclusiveness but rather underscored Asean’s belief that membership should be meaningful and sustainable.”

Despite the concerns, Dili pressed ahead – expanding its diplomatic presence, sending its civil servants to Asean-sponsored capacity-building programmes and steadily increasing its attendance at regional meetings, even as the timeline for entry receded further into the distance.
“Sometimes as a human being, I feel frustrated,” Ramos-Horta said at a forum in Jakarta in 2022. “It seems like the road to heaven, to reach the perfection of heaven, is easier than to reach the gates of Asean.”
The breakthrough finally came a year later, when Asean’s largest economy and then chair, Indonesia, championed a formal road map for East Timor’s membership, setting out phased milestones for building capacity and meeting the bloc’s commitments.
Malaysia, this year’s Asean chair, later confirmed that full admission would come at this month’s summit in Kuala Lumpur.

A painful past
The symbolism of former occupier Indonesia acting as the linchpin welcoming East Timor into the Asean fold was profound. The two now enjoy “a sound diplomatic relationship”, Damien Kingsbury, an international politics professor at Australia’s Deakin University, told This Week in Asia.
“East Timor benefits from having the support of Asean’s pivotal country and Indonesia benefits from having a large part of its ugly history effectively expunged,” said Kingsbury, who has led numerous election observer missions to East Timor.
The journey from subjugation to sovereignty was a long and painful one. Dili first declared independence after the collapse of Portuguese rule in 1975, only to be invaded by Indonesia days later.
The occupation that followed resulted in more than 100,000 deaths from violence, hunger and disease, a truth and reconciliation commission would later find. Some studies placed the toll far higher.

A United Nations-backed referendum in 1999 delivered an overwhelming mandate for independence, but also triggered a final fit of violence before a transitional UN administration shepherded the country to full sovereignty in 2002.
Since then, East Timor has expanded its international presence and embraced reconciliation.
“Despite their fraught history, Indonesia remains East Timor’s largest source of imports and could physically isolate it should there be a decline in diplomatic relations,” Kingsbury said. “East Timor has gone out of its way to cultivate good relations with its large near neighbour.”
Asean now offers a platform to turn that uneasy past into a constructive partnership, built on shared interests in infrastructure, energy, connectivity and trade.

Diplomatic dance
For as long as it has existed as an independent nation, diplomacy for East Timor has been an exercise in carefully navigating relations with partners old and new. Now, as it prepares to take its seat at the Asean table, that balancing act gains new urgency.
Membership of the bloc gives Dili a regional platform from which to manage its two most consequential external relationships – with Australia and China – through a multilateral framework.
Australia is the Southeast Asian nation’s largest donor, pledging nearly A$100 million (US$65 million) in development aid for 2025–26. It is also a key defence ally, with the two signing a bilateral security agreement in 2022 that formalised training, logistics and joint exercises between their militaries.
Meanwhile, China’s influence is also expanding. A Chinese construction company built Tibar Bay Port, East Timor’s largest-ever infrastructure project, and in July last year the two countries signed a cooperation plan encompassing agriculture, green energy, digital technology and aviation under Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative.
China has been playing an increasingly important role, particularly in infrastructure
Damien Kingsbury, international politics professor
“China has been playing an increasingly important role, particularly in infrastructure,” Kingsbury said. “But East Timor is aware of the possibility of being ‘captured’ by China should it come too much into its orbit.”
In this context, membership of Asean acts as a hedge against overdependence.
“East Timor’s inclusion in Asean is a key part of its support for multilateral engagement,” Kingsbury added. “It allows Dili to balance countries that might seek to influence or control its affairs. Not only China, but also Australia and, by extension, the US.”
Lin, the former Asean official, agreed. “Dili’s membership strengthens rather than shifts the bloc’s external balance,” she said. “Anchoring East Timor within the Asean family ensures that it is firmly rooted in the region, rather than drifting under the influence of any external major power.”
Maintaining such an equilibrium depends on something more fundamental, however: economic self-sufficiency. And on that front, the clock is ticking.

Beyond oil and gas
East Timor’s economy runs on hydrocarbons. Oil and gas revenues funnelled through the country’s sovereign wealth fund, worth about US$18.74 billion as of August, underwrite the lion’s share of public spending. But the wells are running dry – and withdrawals from the fund have soared as offshore production tails off.
The International Monetary Fund has warned that the wealth fund could be completely exhausted by the end of the 2030s without tighter financial discipline and diversified growth.
Dili has pinned its hopes on the long-delayed Greater Sunrise project, which holds an estimated 5.1 trillion cubic feet (144.4 billion cubic metres) of gas reserves and straddles the maritime border with Australia.
Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao has repeatedly called the project “critical” and his government is adamant that onshore processing must take place in East Timor, a stance that has long stalled negotiations.
Oil is running out … that’s why diversifying is essential
Ivo Ribeiro, Dili-based economics student
But such a single-minded focus carries major risks, according to Charles Scheiner, who has tracked the country’s energy sector for more than two decades.
“The obsession with Greater Sunrise is at the heart of East Timor’s failure to diversify,” said the researcher at Dili-based NGO La’o Hamutuk.
“Oil is running out,” Ribeiro concurred. “And Greater Sunrise will take time even if agreed. That’s why diversifying now is essential.”
Against this backdrop, Dili’s leaders see Asean as a gateway to new investment, deeper integration with regional markets and the tools to build a more balanced economy.

The bloc also offers practical support such as capacity building for officials and businesses, policy coordination through sectoral bodies and targeted aid – tools that have helped other low-income members close the development gap.
Farming forms the backbone of the country’s rural economy, with around 80 per cent of poor households dependent on it for their livelihoods.
“Agriculture is the heart of our economy,” Ribeiro said. “Asean is our chance to lift productivity with better technology, access to markets and private-sector partnerships.”
He told This Week in Asia there was value in learning from regional peers and implementing guidelines on food safety and sustainable agriculture.

Tourism is another sector with much untapped potential. Despite its picturesque landscapes and rich culture, East Timor is one of the least visited countries on Earth. Ribeiro believes that even a fraction of nearby Bali’s visitors could transform the national economy.
“If Bali gets 6 million visitors, 5 per cent of that is 300,000,” he said. “Keep them four nights at US$100 a day and that’s US$120 million – enough to create jobs for ordinary Timorese, not just those with degrees.”
Luis da Costa Ximenes, director of the Dili-based civil society group Belun, said hopes were high that Asean membership would deliver “pathways to jobs, training and rural development”.
“Youth unemployment is high. Many rely on seasonal work overseas,” he said. “If Asean helps create work at home, that would be a real change.”
Not everyone is convinced of the benefits of membership, however. “Domestic producers [already] struggle to compete with imports,” Scheiner said. “I don’t see how joining Asean can help.”

Moral authority
East Timor’s accession comes at a difficult time for Asean, with US President Donald Trump’s return to the White House and imposition of punitive tariffs upending regional trade amid internal divisions over how best to respond.
The bloc has also struggled to contain the fallout of Myanmar’s military coup in 2021, with the junta still barred from its high-level meetings.
Into this turmoil was stepping a new member “regularly ranked the most democratic country in Southeast Asia”, said politics professor Leach.

East Timor is the only Southeast Asian nation that US-based democracy watchdog Freedom House rates as “free” based on assessments of political rights and civil liberties, giving it a unique moral standing.
Leach noted that East Timor’s leadership had in the past been openly critical of Myanmar’s military regime, a stance that, even if moderated in recent months, “suggests its potential to add value to Asean as a significant voice for human rights and democratic accountability within the bloc”.
Dili has already shown how it might play this role. While backing Myanmar’s pro-democracy opposition, it has also sought dialogue with the junta – a pragmatic move aimed at avoiding any last-minute objections to its Asean accession.
East Timor held several meetings with Myanmar opposition figures in 2023, upsetting the generals who retaliated by expelling Dili’s chargé d’affaires.
The two sides have reportedly patched things up since, as part of a dual-track strategy on Dili’s part seemingly designed to uphold democratic principles without undermining Asean consensus.
East Timor has shown itself to be extremely cooperative and sensitive to Asean’s dynamics
Joanne Lin, Asean studies coordinator
“East Timor has shown itself to be extremely cooperative and sensitive to Asean’s dynamics,” said Lin of the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute.
Timorese civil society leaders say their country’s own history of repression and reconciliation equips them well to foster dialogue, even in the most challenging of circumstances.
“We don’t believe in interference, but we do believe in bringing parties to the table,” Ximenes said. “Our history gives us a voice.”
That credibility may yet prove to be East Timor’s greatest strength. It cannot single-handedly resolve the Myanmar crisis, nor can it remake Asean in its image, but its presence does serve as a reminder of the bloc’s founding vision: peace, freedom and prosperity through friendship and cooperation.
For East Timor, membership of the Asean bloc offers a chance to turn endurance into influence and aspiration into opportunity.
For Asean, the arrival of its newest member brings with it an invitation to imagine a region defined as much by hope as by history.


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East Timorese activists hold a pro-independence protest in the capital of Dili in 1999. Photo: Reuters

University students carry East Timor flags and banners during a protest last month against government plans to provide extra perks to lawmakers. Photo: Reuters

East Timor’s President Jose Ramos-Horta gives an interview in Dili on October 10. Photo: Kyodo

Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim (centre, right) waves from an open-top car with East Timor’s Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao (centre, left) in Dili last month. Photo: AFP

An East Timorese student wearing the then outlawed flag in the form of a shirt is evicted from a government building in Jakarta by Indonesian soldiers during a protest in 1998. Photo: AP

A UN military observer ducks for cover as Indonesian troops fire warning shots to disperse the crowd at a border crossing with East Timor in 2000. Photo: Reuters

An oil platform is seen in the Timor Sea between East Timor and Australia in 2004. Photo: AFP

East Timorese villagers process coffee beans during harvest time in 2020. Coffee is one of the country’s largest non-oil exports. Photo: EPA-EFE

People work on a farm in Topu Honis, East Timor, in 2009. Agriculture forms the backbone of the country’s rural economy. Photo: Ian Neubauer

A youth holds a candle near an artwork calling for peace during East Timor’s presidential election in 2007. Photo: Reuters

Electoral workers empty a ballot box as votes are counted during the parliamentary election in Dili in 2017. Photo: AP 

East Timor’s Asean dreams see it mend fences with Myanmar’s military junta

East Timor’s national flag is raised in Dili during a ceremony marking its 20th anniversary of independence. Photo: Kyodo

Representatives of the governments of Myanmar and East Timor hold talks on September 19. Photo: Myanmar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs 

East Timor’s national flag is raised in Dili during a ceremony marking its 20th anniversary of independence in 2022. Photo: Kyodo

Myanmar’s junta chief Min Aung Hlaing arrives to deliver a speech during a ceremony in Naypyidaw last year to mark the country’s Armed Forces Day. Photo: AFP

Members of Myanmar’s Union Election Commission demonstrate a voting machine in Naypyidaw on September 11. The junta has announced plans to hold an election in December. Photo: AFP

What can East Timor bring to Asean as its eleventh member?

East Timor’s President Jose Ramos-Horta delivers a speech at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Secretariat in Jakarta on August 1. Photo: AFP

Members of East Timor’s Special Police Unit demonstrate anti-riot capabilities during a ceremony marking the unit’s 16th anniversary in Dili on August 14. Photo: AFP

A Chinese coastguard vessel fires a water cannon near the contested Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea on Wednesday. Photo: Armed Forces of the Philippines/AP

East Timor has Indonesia’s backing, but road to Asean filled with financial concerns

President Joko Widodo (R) and East Timor Prime Minister Taur Matan Ruak.  Photo: EPA-EFE

President Joko Widodo (right) said following talks with his East Timor counterpart Taur Matan Ruak (left) that a blueprint for the island state was being prepared, with his government leading the initiative. Photo: EPA-EFE

Southeast Asian foreign ministers met in Indonesia’s capital earlier this month. Photo: Indonesian Presidential Palace via AP

Aerial photo of Dili. Photo: Shutterstock

The recently released State of Southeast Asia 2023 survey report – based on a poll of the region’s policymaking elite – showed a 61.5 per cent approval rating across Asean for East Timor’s accession to the bloc. Photo: AP

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With East Timor finally poised to join the Asean family, its leaders and people are clear-eyed about the hard work ahead


With East Timor finally poised to join the Asean family, its leaders and people are clear-eyed about the hard work ahead.


Asia’s youngest nation nears the end of its epic quest to belong

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}With East Timor finally poised to join the Asean family, its leaders and people are clear-eyed about the hard work ahead

With East Timor finally poised to join the Asean family, its leaders and people are clear-eyed about the hard work ahead