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Asian AngleWhat a US-China ‘grand bargain’ would mean for Southeast Asia
Washington’s Venezuela raid has resurrected old fears about ‘spheres of influence’, sounding alarm bells for Southeast Asian autonomy
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The United States’ military operation in Venezuela, culminating in the capture and removal of President Nicolas Maduro, might at first have appeared distant to Southeast Asia. What should concern the region, however, is not geography but the logic underpinning Washington’s action: a growing willingness to act unilaterally, in this case undermining sovereignty and invoking presidential powers to justify the use of force against a perceived threat.
More troubling still, it dusts off the old geopolitical idea of “spheres of influence”. This notion harks back to a time when major powers “staked out” zones of control, constraining the autonomy of weaker states. Indeed, the latest US National Security Strategy (NSS) explicitly commits Washington to “reassert and enforce the Monroe Doctrine” – a foreign policy position from 1823 associated with US military dominance that frames the western hemisphere as a privileged security space – through what it terms a “Trump Corollary”.
Spheres of influence are established when major powers carve up areas according to their interests, sometimes respecting each other’s spheres so as to reduce the chance of disputes or conflict. In the Venezuela episode, no other power directly challenged Washington’s assertion of a sphere of influence in the western hemisphere, where US military power is unparalleled. China has publicly voiced its opposition, but it is unlikely to actively challenge US President Donald Trump in this instance.
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