China BriefingIs conflict between the US and China inevitable? Not if they talk to each other

The bombshell revelation that a top US general held secret phone calls with his Chinese counterpart reveals the risks inherent amid rising tensions

But Biden and Xi’s conversation this month is a promising sign that fraught ties can be reset when there are open lines of communication

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Chinese President Xi Jinping shakes hands with US President Joe Biden in 2013, when Biden was vice president. Photo: Reuters

Published: 9:30am, 18 Sep 2021

Is China-US conflict inevitable? That question, long debated in academia, has burst into the real world. Since former US president Donald Trump launched the trade war against China in 2018, their bilateral ties have been in free fall, particularly with rising tensions over Taiwan and the South China Sea. This has heightened concerns about the so-called Thucydides Trap, a theory surmising that a rising power and an existing power will inevitably come into conflict, leading to war.

The risks of this were highlighted in the bombshell revelation this month that a top US general had held two secret phone conversations with his Chinese counterpart in the final months of Trump’s presidency to reassure Beijing that Washington would not attack China.

The revelation came just days after Chinese President Xi Jinping had held a lengthy phone call with his American counterpart Joe Biden over a wide range of strategic issues and tried to set a framework for bilateral ties.

These developments once again highlight the utmost importance of communication, and provide grounds for cautious optimism that the world’s two largest economies are able to manage rising tensions and avoid conflict. The lack of communication has reduced opportunities for both sides to reset fraught ties after four years of Trump’s chaotic presidency. The phone conversation was Biden and Xi’s first in seven months and only the second since the former came to power.

Both leaders seemed to suggest this would change. According to Xinhua, Xi told Biden the two countries could continue their engagement and dialogue to advance coordination and cooperation on climate change, the response to Covid-19, and economic recovery, as well as on major international and regional issues.