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Opinion
As war premiums hit groceries, China deals give Africa room to breathe
While governments must avoid swapping one dependency for another, Beijing’s inroads could help enhance food security efforts
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Göktuğ Çalışkan is a PhD researcher at the International University of Rabat (UIR) in Morocco.
The first tankers that turned away from the Strait of Hormuz did not just redraw shipping maps. They redrew grocery lists, too. After Iran’s partial closure of the strait disrupted a chokepoint that carries roughly 20 per cent of the world’s oil, traders priced in something they know too well: war is not only about missiles; it’s about the bill that lands on kitchen tables months later.
Brent crude climbing back above US$100 a barrel, and touching roughly US$120 on the worst days, is already more than a market headline, affecting the diesel at the pump, the bread in the oven and the fertiliser on a field. Even if forecasts indicate that Brent will average closer to US$90 in the second quarter, the risk premium is already present.
For wealthier economies, this may look survivable. For much of the Global South, it feels more like a stress test. Currencies are weak, reserves are thin and debts are heavy. In net importers such as Kenya, Senegal or Bangladesh, every US$10 rise in crude quickly narrows subsidy space, lifts freight costs and hardens urban food inflation.
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