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David Dodwell

As Hong Kong braces itself for the Lunar New Year tourist surge, and perhaps long-awaited evidence of a return to the tourism heydays of 2017 and 2018, spare a thought for the US and mounting evidence of a “Trump slump” in US tourism this year.
While UN Tourism data shows that international tourism was up by 4 per cent globally in 2025 – back to levels not seen since the Covid-19 crash in international travel – the US stood alone worldwide, with at least a 4 per cent fall.
US President Donald Trump’s antagonism towards friends and foes alike, imperialist disruption ranging from Greenland and Panama to Iran and Venezuela, and unilateralist tariff strategy that has wreaked havoc in international trade, bear some of the blame for the sharp fall in international interest in travel to the United States.
But equally significant has been a muscular anti-immigrant strategy that has made visas more expensive and harder to get, and has seen paramilitary anti-immigration forces using disproportionate force against citizens in cities across the US – notably in Minneapolis.
Trump’s injudicious baiting of Canadians, who are among the US’ longest-standing allies and who make millions of short trips across the border into the US every year, has had a particularly catastrophic impact. Canadian land travel to the US fell 30 per cent last year. At the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC), CEO Julia Simpson called a spade a spade: “While other nations are rolling out the welcome mat, the US government is putting up the ‘closed’ sign.”
In May last year, WTTC forecast the US would lose around US$12.5 billion in international visitor spending last year, but more recent estimates are more dire. Erik Hansen at the US Travel Association predicted earlier this month a possible fall of 11 million international visitors in 2025, resulting in a loss of US$50 billion in spending and “hundreds of thousands” of jobs. The US today accounts for around 4.8 per cent of international tourism, compared with 8.4 per cent in 1996.

Whether Trump recognises the harm being done to the US tourism sector – and its importance to the overall economy – remains unclear. His obsession with tariffs and merchandise trade suggests that he even now fails to realise the importance to the US of its services economy, of which tourism services are a significant component.
His fondness, alongside Tesla CEO Elon Musk and his fellow “tech bros”, for “moving fast and breaking things”, makes it possible that he recognises the harm caused but believes it could be a force for long-term good. But more likely than not, the harm currently being inflicted ranks among the many unintended consequences of a muddled menu of ill-considered reforms.
Sadly, when a leader moves at such reckless speed, it is immensely difficult either to link causes to effects that can take months or years to become apparent, or to repair the damage done. This is true with Trump’s tariffs, which he continues to believe are a force for good. It may take a long time for the unchallengeable evidence of pervasive harm to emerge.
This is also true of his job cuts across large parts of government, the closure of entire federal agencies, the US withdrawal from over 60 international agencies, and federal funding cuts for universities across the country. Extensive harm seems inevitable, both at home and in the US’ relations with countries that have long been close allies, but Trump may be long gone before the exact extent of the damage becomes clear or remedies can be devised.

So too with tourism. New York reportedly saw a 5 per cent fall in international visitors last year while California, Hawaii, Florida, Texas and Las Vegas are estimated to have seen declines of 7-8 per cent. But it may never be possible to pin down the exact economic consequences or the number of jobs lost and businesses destroyed.
However, a number of coming mega-events in the US may provide proof of harm sooner than Trump imagines. First, this year the US marks the 250th anniversary of its independence – a celebration that Trump undoubtedly hopes will become part of his megalomaniac legacy and which was expected to underpin a surge in international visitors.
Even more front of mind will be the Fifa World Cup between June 11 and July 29, hosted by 16 cities, 11 of them in the US, which are expected to draw a massive number of soccer fans from around the world. Further down the line will be the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics, for which preparations are under way.

There are rising fears that the Trump-induced slump in international tourist interest in the US will jeopardise international support for and interest in such events, with the potentially disastrous economic consequences becoming apparent early enough to create difficulties for Trump’s midterm election strategy.
Already, opinion pollsters are providing unsettling warnings. Rasmussen Reports, regarded by many as Trump’s favourite pollster, this week revealed about a 50:50 split on whether Trump is doing better than former president Joe Biden. A Harvard/Harris poll last week delivered a similar message, while a YouGov/Economist poll in January found 71 per cent of Americans think the US is “out of control”.
So far, the “Trump slump” in tourism has not distracted the US president from his unilateralist, tariff-focused policies, but if anxieties over the midterm elections become more acute, that might quickly change.


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United States

Will tourism slump force Trump to rethink his unilateral approach?

People enjoy the beach as well as the Hollywood Beach boardwalk on February 10 in Hollywood, Florida. Hollywood, also known as the “Quebec of the South,” has seen fewer French-Canadian tourists in 2026 due to recent tensions between the US and Canada. Photo: Getty Images / AFP

A man walks his dog along the St Clair River with the Blue Water Bridge border crossing in the background, in Point Edward, Ontario, on October 24, 2025. Canadian visits to the US have dropped. Photo: AFP

Students walk past Widener Library at Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts, on November 19, 2025. The renowned university has particularly been in the Trump administration’s crosshairs. Photo: Reuters

Fifa president Gianni Infantino (right) presents US President Donald Trump with a ticket to the final match of the Fifa World Cup, in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington on August 22, 2025. Photo: AFP via Getty Images / TNS

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US President Donald Trump signs the USMCA trade agreement during a ceremony on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington in January 2020. Photo: AFP

US President Donald Trump signs an executive order in the Oval Office in March 2025. Photo: EPA-EFE

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. Photo: Reuters

The Gordie Howe International Bridge linking Detroit to Windsor, Ontario, Canada, was seen under construction earlier this week. Photo: Reuters

Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney delivers a speech during the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, last month. Photo: TNS

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US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent speaks at the USA House at the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on January 21. Photo: AP

The US Department of the Treasury building in Washington on November 18, 2024. Photo: AP

South Korea’s President Lee Jae Myung takes a selfie with China’s President Xi Jinping after a dinner at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on January 5. Photo: Yonhap/AFP

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Travellers at Hong Kong International Airport. Photo: Jelly Tse

Travellers check a departure board at Hong Kong International Airport. Photo: Jelly Tse

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Travellers walk through the arrival hall at La Guardia Airport in New York on December 23, 2025. Photo: AFP

Customs and Border Patrol commander Gregory Bovino walks with border patrol agents through a neighbourhood during an immigration crackdown, in Kenner, Louisiana, on December 5, 2025. Photo: AP

Passengers wait by the baggage carousel at La Guardia Airport in New York on December 23, 2025. Inbound visits to the US are projected to fall by 4.5 million in 2025 compared with 2024. Photo: AFP

US President Donald Trump (right) greets Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Palm Beach, Florida, on Monday. Photo: AFP

Travellers wait in a TSA security screening line at Orlando International Airport. The US has stepped up border controls, including tighter vetting and new restrictions on a range of visa categories. Photo: dpa

Opinion

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World

The US president’s policies have antagonised many the world over and may hit attendance at mega-events like the Fifa World Cup, with political repercussions


The US president’s policies have antagonised many the world over and may hit attendance at mega-events like the Fifa World Cup, with political repercussions.


Donald Trump

Tourism

Inside Out & Outside In

US travel

Canada

Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)


Column

Outside In

Will tourism slump force Trump to rethink his unilateral approach?

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}The US president’s policies have antagonised many the world over and may hit attendance at mega-events like the Fifa World Cup, with political repercussions

The US president’s policies have antagonised many the world over and may hit attendance at mega-events like the Fifa World Cup, with political repercussions