How the West’s sanctions against Russia are fuelling a protracted war

As Washington, Kyiv, Moscow and European capitals negotiate an agreement for a Ukraine-Russia ceasefire, debate has snapped back to familiar questions: how much land Ukraine should surrender, what security guarantees can be offered and when sanctions might be lifted. Lost in this argument is a quieter reality. After more than three years of war, the sanctions regime has created a profitable shadow economy from the South Caucasus to the Gulf – one that now has a vested interest in keeping the conflict simmering rather than ending it.

When the West imposed unprecedented sanctions on Russia, the goal was clear: cripple its war machine and force a retreat from Ukraine. Paradoxically, Russia’s economy, though wounded, continues to function and countries such as Armenia, Kazakhstan, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates are witnessing surging trade and economic growth.