How China can help Africa build human capital

Whereas then US president Joe Biden initially missed the group photo at the annual Group of 20 summit in Rio de Janeiro last year, requiring a reshoot, his successor did not even bother showing up for this year’s meeting in Johannesburg. US President Donald Trump boycotted the summit due to alleged mistreatment of white people in post-apartheid South Africa. Yet, even in the absence of the US, the G20 managed to make a leaders’ declaration at the start of the summit, which usually comes at the end. As Washington was mulling over whether to send any senior people to this year’s summit, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa could not contain his laughter in response to a journalist’s question about the US asking to participate two days before the event’s start. The White House was not amused. As the host of next year’s G20 summit, the US threatened to bar South Africa, a G20 founding member, from attending the Florida gathering. This year’s G20 in South Africa was the fourth in a row hosted in the Global South. Among the recent G20 summit hosts, South Africa faces a relatively moderate tariff of 30 per cent from the Trump administration – not as low as Indonesia’s 19 per cent, but much better than the 50 per cent imposed on Brazil and India. However, South Africa’s rate is considerably higher than several other economies on the continent, such as Kenya and Nigeria. The G20’s focus on inclusive industrialisation this year is particularly poignant in this regard. As a post-industrialised US leverages tariffs in its attempt to reindustrialise, it is kicking away the development ladder of industrialising nations. African countries in particular confront an acute set of challenges. South Africa, for example, continues to struggle with rampant crime, poor public health and uneven income distribution. Its economy has experienced growth of under 1 per cent per year in the last decade. Many African countries also suffer from the resource curse. The wealth from extractive industries is captured by a small elite and has not resulted in growth benefiting most of the population. As the rich world – from Europe to East Asia – ages, most of the world’s population growth will come from Africa where the median age is 19. By the middle of the century, one in four people in the world – and at least one third of young people aged 15 to 24 – will be African. Human capital, not mineral resources, will shape Africa’s future. As seen in the contrasting industrialisation trajectories of India and China, an educated workforce makes all the difference. China’s industrialisation was preceded by and built upon the increase in literacy among the working age population in the decades before economic reforms. In 1949, China’s literacy rate was about 20 per cent; by 1978, it had more than tripled. While less than half of school-age children were enrolled in primary schools in 1952, 94 per cent were by 1978, with almost universal literacy in China today. In 2022, the literacy rate in sub-Saharan Africa as a whole stood at around 68 per cent. However, literacy rates throughout the region have varied from below 30 per cent in Chad to 90 per cent in South Africa. Perhaps more than infrastructure and industrial estates, the most important lever China can pull in helping Africa’s industrialisation is educational aid. In particular, sending teachers can deliver a broad and lasting impact. China has started a programme to train 40,000 African teachers. In the AI era, it is now possible for the best STEM (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) teachers in Beijing and Shanghai to teach virtually in Africa. AI programmes trained on these teachers’ lesson plans and actual classroom delivery could enhance academic outcomes, delivering the same lessons through whatever language is appropriate, whether in English, French, Swahili or Yoruba. With AI as an equaliser, African students can have greater access to STEM teachers, complementing the efforts of teachers throughout the continent. Moreover, AI-based virtual teachers can be engineered to adjust teaching methods to fit the needs of local students and interactively answer questions in due course. Countries throughout Africa lack the power and infrastructure to fully embrace such roll-outs. Cities like Kigali may be ready but even industrial hubs like Johannesburg struggle with reliable power. Reliable internet access is mostly available in the urban regions of a handful of countries. Solar-powered mini-grids combined with satellite connectivity could provide the necessary infrastructure for digital education. In the age of automation, education is increasingly important. Whereas labour-intensive industries provided the initial steps for East Asian economies to climb the development ladder, workers in Africa are competing with automated production and industrial robots in China in today’s global economy. Industrialisation is an evolutionary and cumulative process. Infrastructure, industrial estates and supply chains are important parts of that. However, human capital provides the foundation for them to build on and reinforce each other. Skilled workers are the enablers and beneficiaries of inclusive industrialisation. The path forward lies in recognising that education and infrastructure must be advanced in tandem. Digital connectivity and reliable power grids can enable AI-powered classrooms that democratise access to education. An educated workforce creates the capacity to expand that very infrastructure. This mutually reinforcing dynamic is the bedrock of inclusive industrialisation, helping Africa harness the potential of its youth and reap the benefits of sustained economic development.

How China can help Africa build human capital

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}To truly harness their potential, countries across the continent seeking to industrialise must develop education and infrastructure in tandem

To truly harness their potential, countries across the continent seeking to industrialise must develop education and infrastructure in tandem