Russia’s rare earth gamble is about killing 3 birds with 1 stone

By December 1, Russia is likely to approve and present its long-term road map for developing its rare earth sector, following President Vladimir Putin’s directive to the cabinet on November 4. On the surface, this is a domestic industrial policy story about catching up in the hi-tech arena. However, this view misses the woods for the trees. This road map is a sophisticated geostrategic manoeuvre, a single stone aimed at three strategic birds: reclaiming autonomy over strategic resources, fracturing Western resolve and recalibrating Moscow’s lopsided partnership with Beijing. The first target is Russia’s own vulnerability. For a nation that styles itself as a great power, its position in the global rare earth supply chain is embarrassingly weak. The US Geological Survey estimates that Russia sits on the world’s fifth-largest reserves, a massive 3.8 million tonnes of rare earth oxides. Russia’s Ministry of Natural Resources claims significantly higher figures, a reserve of 15 types of rare earth metals totalling 28.7 million tonnes. Yet, it only produces about 2,500 tonnes annually, less than 1 per cent of global supply. Its entire production hinges on a single operation: the Lovozero mine on the Kola Peninsula, whose ore is processed at the Solikamsk magnesium plant in the Urals. This is a classic case of the resource curse for the technological age, owning the treasure but lacking the tools to unlock its full value. Russia’s ambition to catapult itself into being a leading global producer is a direct assault on this paradox. The recent state-orchestrated takeover of the colossal Tomtor deposit – one of the world’s richest niobium and rare earth fields – by oil giant Rosneft signals the Kremlin’s intent to treat this as an urgent matter of national security. For a heavily sanctioned country, self-sufficiency in minerals critical for everything from missiles to electric vehicles is not just an economic goal; it is an imperative for strategic sovereignty and a path out of marginalisation. The second bird in Putin’s sights is US strategic coherence. The road map serves as a brilliant spoiler, challenging the logic behind continued US support for Ukraine. In May, the Trump administration explicitly linked aid for Kyiv with access to Ukraine’s mineral wealth. A deal was signed, creating a fund to leverage Ukraine’s resources, including rare earths – many of which are located in its embattled eastern regions. Trump has even said he wants Ukraine to supply the US with rare earths to offset the cost. By aggressively developing its own, far larger reserves, Russia could send a subtle but clear message to Washington: why engage in a costly, protracted struggle for resources in a conflict zone when a stable, long-term supply can be negotiated with us? This would create friction between the US’ strategic goal of weakening Russia and its economic desire for resource diversification. While any formal US-Russia rare earth deal is still politically toxic, the mere possibility undermines the resource payoff narrative that underpins a significant part of Washington’s argument for sustained involvement in Ukraine. The third and most nuanced target is Russia’s partnership with China. Beneath the rhetoric of camaraderie lies a stark asymmetry. Since the invasion of Ukraine and the imposition of Western sanctions, China’s share of Russian imports has skyrocketed, soaring from 23 per cent in 2021 to 57 per cent in 2024. Russia has been portrayed by many as a junior partner, supplying raw materials while becoming dependent on Chinese machinery, electronics and consumer goods. The rare earth road map is a long-term play to regain leverage. By building its own integrated supply chain, Russia seeks to transform itself from a mere source of hydrocarbons into a strategic player in the hi-tech resource arena. Of course, Beijing still controls around 90 per cent of global processing and magnet production. In fact, Russia is in talks to acquire Chinese extraction technology, highlighting its present dependency. Nonetheless, the potential for a future where Russia emerges as a real competitor and collaborator in this strategic sector gives Moscow a stronger hand in negotiations over everything from gas prices to political alignment. A Russia with options is a Russia that is less susceptible to pressure. Sceptics will argue that a Russia seeking rare earth independence, or even engaging the US as a resource partner, threatens the Sino-Russian partnership. However, the current level of strategic trust and shared interest makes a “reverse Nixon” scenario – a full Russian pivot to Washington – highly improbable. A more confident Russia with more strategic leverage is a more stable and reliable partner for China. An economically desperate, dependent Russia is a liability. A Russia with its own sources of strength fosters a healthier, more equitable and more sustainable relationship. Beijing, confident in its unassailable position in the processing sector, can afford to see its partner become more resilient. Putin’s rare earth road map is far more than an industrial plan. It is a geopolitical declaration. While it faces Herculean challenges in financing and technology, the strategic intent is unambiguous. In the 21st century great game, where critical minerals form the bedrock of economic and military power, Russia is signalling its determination to be a masterful player, not a passive prize. By aiming for sovereignty, leverage and parity with a single stone, the Kremlin is playing a long and calculated game that will reshape the contours of global power long after the final draft of the road map is approved.

Russia’s rare earth gamble is about killing 3 birds with 1 stone

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Bogged down in Ukraine and wary of its reliance on Chinese imports, Moscow seeks to overcome the resource curse

Bogged down in Ukraine and wary of its reliance on Chinese imports, Moscow seeks to overcome the resource curse