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Winston Mok

US President Donald Trump’s speech at the United Nations last month will be seen as the watershed moment when America’s and China’s energy paths irreversibly diverged. As China leads the world in the green energy transition, the United States risks being left chained to fossil fuels.
In the last five years, annual renewable energy additions have more than doubled from under 300 gigawatts (GW) in 2020 to over 700GW in 2024. Electricity generation from fossil fuels will plateau within a decade before declining, overtaken by solar and wind by 2035. This green revolution is achieving in a few decades what took the Industrial Revolution more than a century to accomplish.
In his first administration, Trump pulled the US out of the Paris climate accord. In his second administration, Trump swiftly reversed most of the groundwork laid by the Biden administration towards America’s green transition.
Boosted by incentives, clean energy installations in the US surged under the Biden administration. Even with steady annual growth, though, solar net additions in the US reached only 15 per cent of China’s installations in 2024. Now, the green energy sector faces grave uncertainties under Trump.
Trump could well be speaking from the perspective of a petrostate. The US was the world’s top producer of both oil and natural gas in 2023, generating billions of dollars in energy exports. At the same time, the country is generating a larger share of its electricity from fossil fuels than China.
The US is also shirking its responsibility as one of the planet’s leading carbon emitters. While China emitted the most total greenhouse gases in 2023, on a per capita basis the US was a far worse polluter, with emissions around 50 per cent higher than China’s.


As part of the European Green Deal, the European Union has put itself on course to be climate neutral by 2050. China announced at the UN Climate Summit last month that it would reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 7 to 10 per cent from its peak level by 2035.
Given the level of disruption Trump has sent rippling through the world with his many trade wars, his attacks against efforts to combat climate change have mostly been overshadowed. The inexorable tide of the green transition cannot be held back by sheer rhetoric, however, and will be carried forward through science, economics and investment.
Investment in clean energy – including renewables, nuclear and storage – is expected to reach US$2.2 trillion this year, twice the amount fossil fuels are expected to attract. Solar power is likely to be a key impetus behind that level of growth, with solar expected to draw US$450 billion in investment this year.
Even Gulf nations, whose fortunes depend heavily on fossil fuels, have pledged US$100 billion in renewable investment by 2030. These petrostates have become key destinations for green investment. As part of its Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia has a goal of generating half its power from renewables by 2030.


Having installed more solar panels and wind turbines last year than the rest of the world combined, China now accounts for more than 40 per cent of renewable energy capacity in the world. China also plans to increase its solar and wind capacities six-fold from 2020 levels in the next decade.
China dominates global green technology manufacturing, exporting US$177 billion worth of green equipment in 2024. The world’s top five solar panel companies are all Chinese. Since 2023, Chinese companies have unveiled US$168 billion of foreign investments in clean energy manufacturing and infrastructure.
The contrasting visions of the US and China for green energy are shaped by natural endowments and energy needs. Even as a pioneer in renewable energy innovations, the US could not overcome the “resource curse”. Beset by energy vulnerabilities, China transformed necessity into dominance.
The relentless expansion of green energy manufacturing capacities has driven a downward spiral in costs. By 2024, around 90 per cent of new renewable projects were cheaper than fossil fuel alternatives. Solar is now around 40 per cent cheaper than fossil fuels, with offshore wind more than 50 per cent cheaper.

The Trump administration could use economic coercion to force its allies to buy more American oil and gas, but this would do little more than capture market share in mature markets. In ageing, post-industrial economies such as South Korea and Japan, electricity consumption appears to have peaked.
In contrast, much of the growth in power generation is expected to take place in the Global South. Such growth is powered by renewable energy dictated by economic imperatives. By the middle of the century, leading African nations could have leapfrogged the US with superior green infrastructure, building the grid of tomorrow while America maintains that of yesterday.
China is driving a transformative industry of the future while the US clings to a sunset legacy. While the US leverages its raw political power to market its oil and gas, the rest of the world – compelled by economic logic – is surging ahead on an unstoppable green transition. The green revolution has enabled developing nations to leapfrog directly to superior, affordable renewable infrastructure.
Shenzhen – where the buses run on electricity – provides a glimpse of the future after fossil fuels. Unless the US overcomes its parochial interests in fossil fuels, the country itself will become an industrial museum, frozen at its mid-20th century zenith while the world moves on without it.


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Renewable energy

China is driving a green energy future while the US is frozen in the past

Wind turbines are seen at a wind farm in Suichuan county, in China’s central Jiangxi province on July 17. Photo: AFP

US President Donald Trump holds up a sign as he arrives to speak during a rally in Huntington, West Virginia, on August 3, 2017. Photo: AFP

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Illustration: Craig Stephens

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US President Donald Trump signs an executive order to “Make Coal Clean Again,” at the White House in Washington on April 8. Photo: AFP

Storage tanks are seen at the North Jeddah bulk plant, an Aramco oil facility, in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on March 21, 2021. Photo: AP 

Turbines that are part of Constellation Energy’s Criterion Wind Project stand along the ridge of Backbone Mountain on August 23, 2022, near Oakland, Maryland. Photo: Getty Images/AFP 

Opinion

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Even as the US leverages its political power to market its oil and gas, the rest of the world is surging ahead on an unstoppable green transition


Even as the US leverages its political power to market its oil and gas, the rest of the world is surging ahead on an unstoppable green transition.


Solar energy

Energy

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United States

Saudi Arabia

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Belgium

Donald Trump

Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)


China is driving a green energy future while the US is frozen in the past

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Even as the US leverages its political power to market its oil and gas, the rest of the world is surging ahead on an unstoppable green transition

Even as the US leverages its political power to market its oil and gas, the rest of the world is surging ahead on an unstoppable green transition