Multipolar arms race takes ballistic missile threat to new levels
Cold War-era bilateral arms control treaties simply won’t work as more states emerge with deterrent capabilities, complicating calculations
War is just one press of a button away, and the likelihood of that happening – even if accidental – is not insignificant. The advancement of ballistic missile capabilities has opened up new battle spaces. Just as during the Cold War, today’s adversaries can hold each other’s populations hostage under the threat of nuclear war.
As we mark 80 years since the second world war ended, it is becoming easier to fathom our world at war again. However, while it may be true the “long peace” was more an exception than the norm, the current trajectory of returning to a historical norm of perpetual conflict can be reversed.
The logic of war remains the same but the nature of war – and the scale of suffering we can inflict – has radically changed.