How China could play a role in European security as the US retreats

Even if the dust hasn’t settled, the fog over the Ukraine war is not as thick as it once was. Russia is close to regaining full control of the western region of Kursk and, according to its own estimates, controls nearly all of Luhansk and more than 70 per cent of the Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. This is why Russian President Vladimir Putin is not in a hurry to accept a ceasefire agreement. He needs to buy more time to completely win on the battlefield. Then he could look to “solve the root causes” of the war. Russia’s gains merely amount to a Pyrrhic victory. The UN General Assembly has condemned the invasion of Ukraine. Few governments, among them North Korea and Syria’s previous leadership, have expressed support for Russia’s annexation. And a country that needs Iranian weapons and North Korean soldiers doesn’t give the impression of a military superpower. Russia’s arms exports fell by 47 per cent in 2024 compared to 2022 when Moscow launched the war. However, Ukraine is a complete loser. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, a former comedian, will ironically go down in history as a tragic figure. Of course, Ukraine will never recognise the annexation, and the four regions under Russian occupation may become the Kremlin’s Achilles’ heel in decades to come. Nonetheless, Kyiv will have to accept Russia’s occupation in practice. Even if Ukraine joins the European Union before 2030, as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has suggested, its Nato membership ambitions look doomed. Moreover, some researchers say that fewer than half of the 6.8 million Ukrainian refugees plan to return home when the war ends. Europe is another loser, but it is hard to tell whether its failure is more because of Russia or the United States. After US Vice-President J.D. Vance’s speech at the Munich Security Conference, where he launched a blistering attack on European leaders, a disillusioned Europe is keen to spend more on defence. However painful, this is affordable. Even without the US, other Nato members have ample resources to produce many types of weapons and combat systems. Within a decade, Europe’s security architecture could look quite different. But can Europe one day achieve its much-touted strategic autonomy? The short answer is no, as long as Brussels relies on American nuclear weapons as Nato’s ultimate deterrent. Britain and France’s nuclear arsenals combined are dwarfed by Russia’s. This makes French President Emmanuel Macron’s vow to provide extended nuclear deterrence to Europe questionable at best. How many countries believe in such deterrence? Former French president Charles de Gaulle supposedly doubted whether the US would “risk New York to defend Paris” – probably one of the reasons France developed nuclear weapons. Europe’s security depends on its ability to coexist with Russia. To date, Russia’s sphere of influence has shrunk to the extent that only Belarus is considered Moscow’s loyal ally in Europe. Brussels talks about Russia being an existential threat. But if Moscow is unable to gain full control of four Ukrainian regions after three years, how can it successfully invade another country, especially if it is a member of the transatlantic security alliance? Moscow cannot defeat a 32-member strong Nato in a conventional war, and it shouldn’t want to launch a pre-emptive nuclear strike on a Nato country that would surely invite retaliation. Nato is coming to the end of its expansion. It might survive, but it won’t thrive. First, if liberal democracy continues to decline, it is impossible for Nato, as its military tool, to maintain strength. Liberal democracy is in a steady decline globally. It is most likely to continue eroding under US President Donald Trump, who doesn’t give a damn about it. Second, Trump wants to leave Europe’s security to Europeans and focus on the Indo-Pacific region and competition with China. This makes the Europeanisation of Nato inevitable and will add to the military bloc’s decline. The war in Ukraine has prompted expectations for China to play a greater international role, both in the wake of the invasion and after Vance’s Munich speech. Indeed, Beijing wishes to help, as evidenced by its suggested 12-point peace plan and joint efforts with Brazil to gather other Global South countries to support a ceasefire. But China’s real role may come later, after a ceasefire or armistice is agreed. And it depends on two “ifs” – if a kind of collective security guarantee from major powers including China is needed, and if peacekeeping is required to prevent either Russia or Ukraine from violating a ceasefire. The 1953 Korean armistice could offer an example of how an informal settlement endorsed by great powers can reduce hostilities. The truce was chiefly negotiated between China, the US and North Korea. While no peace treaty has been signed, the Korean conflict has not turned into anything comparable to the hot war of the early 1950s. For peacekeeping to happen, it first needs the consent of the warring parties. Then, once the UN issues a mandate, China – the largest troop-contributing country of the UN Security Council’s five permanent members – could take the lead alongside other Global South countries and a few non-Nato European nations. The inclusion of any Nato or EU member state would be flatly rejected by Russia. If these scenarios come to pass, it would be the first time China has been invited to play a role in Europe’s security. It is fascinating to see how the US wishes to retreat into the Indo-Pacific region while China might have to move into the European heartland. This is the dawn of a new era.

How China could play a role in European security as the US retreats

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Depending on how the Ukraine war is resolved, some might expect Beijing instead of Washington to help keep the peace in Europe

Depending on how the Ukraine war is resolved, some might expect Beijing instead of Washington to help keep the peace in Europe