A world on edge is headed for a geopolitical reckoning – in May

As the world reels from US President Donald Trump’s sweeping – though now largely paused – “reciprocal” tariffs, next month’s global geopolitical calendar could prove consequential. Nearly every region is on the brink of decisions that could shape the coming years.

Centre stage are Trump’s first state visits of his second term, expected as soon as next month. He will reportedly visit Saudi Arabia first, as well as the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. Trump’s focus highlights Gulf investments in American industry – the UAE has pledged US$1.4 trillion, Saudi Arabia US$600 billion – and critically, may be an attempt to insert himself into Gaza talks.

Trump has floated radical proposals, including resettling Palestinians to transform the Gaza Strip into a luxury retreat. Implausibility aside, such ideas underscore a transactional and disruptive diplomatic style that could deepen Middle East divides.

The tour could also be leveraged for geopolitical theatre: Trump expects to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Saudi Arabia, a sort of “reverse Nixon” to draw Russia closer, away from China. The Kremlin has, however, ruled out this meeting.