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Daniel Wagner

US President Donald Trump’s plan to eviscerate the liberal post-war order is off to a great start. In less than 50 days, he has managed to seriously damage the trusted relationship America has enjoyed with Canada, Mexico and the European Union.
Trump has put the Nato alliance into question, turned America’s policy on Russia upside down, compromised Ukraine’s sovereignty and prompted the world’s economists to contemplate a global recession as a result of his absurd tariffs.
It is not just the American house he wants to burn down, but the status quo of the entire world.
The impact his actions have had on the US and the world is already profound. Four years from now, the global economy, multilateral institutions and America’s alliances will be unrecognisable.
By 2028, the cumulative effects of Trump’s policies are likely to result in an even more multipolar world order, and thus, perhaps less stability and predictability. Traditional US allies are rightly already seeking greater autonomy in defence and economic matters and they will understandably be strengthening their non-American alliances.
The weakening of institutions like Nato may embolden rival powers, leading to increased regional conflicts. Sustained trade tensions and protectionist measures will undoubtedly have hindered global growth, severely disrupted supply chains and contributed to recurrent market instability.


The long-term impact on international cooperation, particularly in addressing global challenges such as climate change and public health, will be significant, necessitating a reassessment of time-tested multilateral strategies.
The self-imposed purging of American leadership in some multilateral institutions will undermine global cooperation on trade, security and health. The multilateral system will not collapse but will become more fragmented and unstable.
This will open the door for China to pick up the slack – not from a voting rights perspective, but in terms of its behind-the-scenes influence in the multilateral institutions. Beijing will no doubt seek to play an enhanced role in global finance as a result of a weakened International Monetary Fund and World Trade Organization.
In light of reduced US security commitments, the European Union will have an incentive to pursue greater strategic autonomy. Initiatives to bolster defence capabilities and reduce reliance on external powers are already under way.

Nations such as Japan, Turkey and Poland will probably seek to expand their influence regionally, filling some of the vacuums left behind. Japan’s military modernisation, Turkey’s regional assertiveness and Poland’s leadership in Eastern Europe already exemplify this trend.
The global economy will be lucky to maintain a modest growth rate but it may prove to be insufficient to foster sustained economic development, particularly in emerging markets and developing economies.
The rise in global defence spending in 2024 is likely to continue, with nations enhancing their military capabilities to address evolving security challenges. Investments in defence are likely to spur technological innovation, potentially benefiting civilian sectors.
European nations are expected to significantly increase defence spending, by up to 3.5 per cent of gross domestic product. While enhancing the continent’s military capabilities, this will also almost certainly result in higher taxes or increased borrowing, presenting a challenge to existing fiscal policies.

While the world will be worse off as a result of many of the changes that will have occurred, some nations and institutions will benefit. European nations may end up better off as a result of the emphasis on self-reliance and increased self-funding.
Depending on how peace unfolds in Ukraine, Russia is likely to be the net beneficiary. China will benefit by filling the gaps America leaves behind and establishing an enhanced presence in multilateral institutions.
Developing nations will, of course, be worse off because of reduced funding for development aid. The environment is sure to be a net loser without American support for climate change initiatives as it was the first time Trump was in office.
The biggest loser will be America itself. During Trump’s first term, there was a chance for the US to regain its dignity and restore fractured alliances. That will be much harder to achieve this time.
America’s allies will never again be able to assume that its guarantees are ironclad or be able to rely on US support in times of crisis. People around the world will have lost faith that America stands for freedom, liberty and democracy. Instead, the US will have become synonymous with authoritarianism and dictatorship.
Trump’s policies are suicidal for America in the long term and make little sense. Four years from now, it will have become evident that his administration was the last one during which the US had omnipotent influence in the world.
After his term ends, the shifts in alliances, the rise of national self-reliance, a recession-laden global economy and a permanently altered landscape may make it impossible for the US to regain its pre-eminence, much less its dignity and credibility.


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While the Trump administration is upending the status quo of global security and trade, the biggest loser will be the US itself


While the Trump administration is upending the status quo of global security and trade, the biggest loser will be the US itself.


Donald Trump

European Union

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Ukraine

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Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)


Trump’s damage to American credibility might be irreparable

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}While the Trump administration is upending the status quo of global security and trade, the biggest loser will be the US itself

While the Trump administration is upending the status quo of global security and trade, the biggest loser will be the US itself