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Terry Su

US president-elect Donald Trump called tariffs “the most beautiful word in the dictionary” during his campaign for re-election. Judging by his now well-known character and first-term record, he is certain to walk his talk after his inauguration on January 20 and impose tariffs across the board on all goods imported into the United States.
Amid all the discussion of a potential new “tariff war”, though, we need to make clear the tension inherent in the term as it is crucial to understanding the complexity of the current international landscape.
The use of the word “tariff” suggests the prospect of difficult trade disputes between the US and its allies, and perhaps the rest of the world too. However, a tariff “war” could turn into something far more precarious – even a hot war – with China, which is much more able to stand up to any US pressure thanks to its manufacturing prowess.
Adam Tooze, a historian and professor at Columbia University, said during an Asia Society speech last month that China’s current industrialisation “is not the industrial revolution done again. Everything prior to this was a prelude to the Chinese industrial revolution of our lifetimes”.
Trump has been described as a master deal maker, but he is ignorant of the subtleties involved in a “tariff war”. China will leave no stone unturned to prepare for such a war, while Washington’s allies will seek to play down the tariffs theme and play up the US-China war game to create more strategic wiggle room for themselves.
To America’s allies, “tariff war” is an exaggeration if not an outright misnomer. The US can in fact confidently exert pressure on them to solve its trade issues. Canada is the latest case in point. Before he has even entered the White House, Trump’s call for tariffs on imports from Canada has heaped pressure on the US’ northern neighbour. Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland has resigned from Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government while Trudeau has faced calls to step down.


This is despite Trudeau having sought to convince Trump that Canada and the US would “be able to do good things together” as the Trump administration was “significantly concerned about international pressures, particular overcapacity by China and unfair trade practices by China”.
That is the Trump who the world must deal with for another four years, one who has issued a warning to all countries against trying to find alternatives to the US dollar when trading with others. In a world without China, it would be simple for the US to do to every other country what it is doing to Canada and what it did to Japan in the 1980s.
But things are different with China. Beijing is standing firm as its status as a manufacturing powerhouse fuels the central government’s drive for national rejuvenation. It has sent tough signals to the incoming Trump administration with moves such as banning exports of certain rare earth minerals to the US, its call for Chinese companies not to use US-made chips and its investigation into Nvidia over what it sees as the US chipmaker’s violations of antitrust rules.
In the meantime, US allies appear to be making moves to ensure Trump’s second term does not go all his own way, most notably over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Earlier this month, French President Emmanuel Macron raised the prospect of stationing foreign peacekeepers in Ukraine, with estimates of up to 40,000 soldiers. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appeared to welcome the idea, though no concrete details have emerged.

This is not the first time Macron has made comments suggesting support for sending European troops into Ukraine, potentially putting him at odds with Washington and Brussels. Mark Rutte, a former Dutch prime minister and now the new chief of Nato, has warned that pushing for a deal that is bad for Ukraine would be “a dire security threat not only to Europe but also to the US”.
Trump famously pledged during his re-election campaign that he would end the war in Ukraine in one day and later asserted that “there should be an immediate ceasefire and negotiations should begin”. Macron and Europe appear to be issuing a challenge to Trump: clean up the mess in Ukraine or leave it to us to do our own way, with the latter option almost inevitably meaning Russia will be part of it.
Dealing with Russia will be a tall order for Trump. Russian President Vladimir Putin has made it clear his country has grander designs for Ukraine than Trump can accommodate, although he has indicated he is ready to talk to the new US president “any time”.


He has also sent public signals to China to provide reassurances about his allegiance to the strategic partnership between Moscow and Beijing. No matter how the world situation evolved, he said during a speech at a forum in Moscow on December 5, Russia would unswervingly advance its relationship with China, and China would always be Russia’s long-term and important economic and trade partner.
A few days after the speech, Russian envoy and former president Dmitry Medvedev was dispatched to Beijing to reinforce the proclamation.
The late Henry Kissinger was worried that the US had entered a strategic contest with China without a proper plan. The second Trump administration will prove that notion correct as its global game of whack-a-mole continues until it is exhausted, its allies are alienated and its attempts to contain China’s rightful rise prove ineffective.


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Why Trump’s tariff war with China is more dangerous than he thinks

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Trump’s plan to wage economic war against China runs the risk of alienating US allies and having no effect on Beijing’s fortunes


Trump’s plan to wage economic war against China runs the risk of alienating US allies and having no effect on Beijing’s fortunes.


US-China trade war

China tariffs

Donald Trump

Canada

Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)


Why Trump’s tariff war with China is more dangerous than he thinks

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Trump’s plan to wage economic war against China runs the risk of alienating US allies and having no effect on Beijing’s fortunes

Trump’s plan to wage economic war against China runs the risk of alienating US allies and having no effect on Beijing’s fortunes