appConfigEntityId

bodyType

customContents

entityId

entityUuid

isVideo

articlePageQuery

article

articleSchemaContent

content

hooksArticlePageAdvertisementConfigArticle

hooksArticlePageFloatingButtonConfigArticle

appConfig

filter

json

liveArticle

Bernard Chan

After winning legislative backing for the Hong Kong Jockey Club to offer basketball betting – an initiative aimed at drawing punters away from illegal online bookmakers and capturing additional tax revenue – the government has now paused the roll-out.
Officials say the rise of prediction markets has altered the landscape and warrants closer examination. So, what is it about prediction markets that unsettles officials?
Prediction markets are online platforms where the menu stretches far beyond sport. Contracts are posted on matters such as conflicts, interest rate decisions and other events – weighty issues recast as wagers, often without the consumer protection normally associated with licensed betting.
In the closing months of the 2024 US presidential race, sums tied to the eventual winner ran into billions of dollars. Prices tracked the news cycle – a strong poll, a weak debate, a court ruling – adjusting within minutes.
Prediction markets do not work like conventional bookmakers, which calculate and adjust odds using their own models. They resemble exchanges, with prices shifting as the market reacts to new information and changing sentiment. Supporters say the process can yield sharper forecasts than polls.
Whether that promise holds up is another matter – and the implications go well beyond basketball betting in Hong Kong. The list of contracts on these platforms is deeply troubling, not only morally but also politically. Traders can, for example, speculate on the Gaza ceasefire, whether a downed fighter pilot will be rescued, and the likelihood of US ground troops being deployed to Iran. In effect, they turn the trajectory of conflicts – with tangible human consequences – into instruments for financial gain.


The companies behind these platforms say they simply aggregate information. Set aside the ethical discomfort, and a more serious structural issue comes into view, one that leads to the most powerful office on the planet.
In his second term, US President Donald Trump’s statements are once again moving markets. Major announcements have been followed by sharp volatility, sometimes shifting billions of dollars in equities and derivatives within minutes. Wall Street’s main fear gauge, the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), tends to spike when he posts.
A threat of steep tariffs one week can be softened the next, prompting investors to reassess policy trajectories. Such swings have drawn intensified scrutiny, particularly as questions arise as to who might have advance knowledge.
Recent cases in the United States underscore the problem. Political candidates placed bets on their own electoral contests, exploiting privileged information about campaign strategy and voter sentiment. A special forces officer involved in planning the operation to capture Venezuela’s president is accused of profiting from classified details, netting hundreds of thousands of dollars through wagers on the outcome he helped orchestrate.
Sizeable stock market trades have been placed shortly before major policy announcements. Journalists have examined the timing, and regulators say they are investigating allegations of insider trading. Prediction markets amplify this dynamic. They let anyone anywhere gamble on potential outcomes. And when one person holds enormous influence over those outcomes, the impact is immediate.

If the US president hints that peace in the Middle East is close, related contracts surge. If the rhetoric shifts towards escalation, they tumble just as quickly. The pattern plays out again and again. Each swing moves the market because of the timing of a speech, an interview or a Truth Social post.
On regulated exchanges, there are rules about talking markets up or down while holding a financial interest in the outcome. In some cases, the authorities may treat this as manipulation, investigate it and, upon conviction, seek a prison sentence.
Prediction markets sit largely outside that framework. They are often hosted offshore and can be easily accessed via a virtual private network (VPN) to avoid local restrictions that limit access to online content or platforms based on a user’s location. Compared with stock or futures exchanges, oversight is sparse – with limited disclosure requirements, no coherent insider-trading regime, and enforcement that falls well short of that in traditional financial markets.
The imbalance is hard to ignore. The people who can most directly influence events may face the fewest questions about whether they, or the people around them, are trading on those events.
It’s hardly surprising that governments are taking notice. The implications touch core concerns: the soundness of financial markets and the credibility of policy decisions that affect millions of people. Those are not marginal issues, and they deserve scrutiny far beyond Hong Kong.
On that point, the Hong Kong government is right: the implications of prediction markets are far-reaching and merit careful examination. What scrutiny will not resolve, however, is illegal gambling. Unlicensed bookmakers will continue to operate, and customers will continue to find them. If there is one prediction that requires no market, model, or algorithm, it is that.


Hong Kong woman, 80, loses HK$6 million to fake online investment expert

Top official to determine responsible department in complex 1823 cases

Bite-mark, DNA tests used to identify dogs after woman dies in suspected attack

Nearly 50% rise in drug seizures by Hong Kong customs in first half of year

Hong Kong society

Why governments beyond Hong Kong are wary of prediction markets

A LED sphere screen shows information at 
“The Situation Room”, a pop-up bar by prediction market platform Polymarket, in Washington on March 20. Photo: AFP

Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a soldier who is charged with using his access to classified information about the operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in January to win money on Polymarket, walks near a federal court building in New York on April 28. Photo: AP

From the US to Hong Kong, there’s no excuse for insider trading

US President Donald Trump and first lady Melania at the Kennedy Centre for the opening night of the musical Chicago on March 31. Oil trades spiked by half a billion dollars minutes before Trump posted a pause on the US attack on Iranian energy sites. Photo: Getty Images via AFP

US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth provides updates on military operations in Iran during a press briefing at the Pentagon on March 19, in Arlington, Virginia. Photo: Getty Images / TNS

Dr Kelvin Wong Tin-yau, chairman of the Securities and Futures Commission, at the Global Financial Leaders’ Investment Summit at Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing in Central, Hong Kong on November 5, 2025. Photo: Edmond So

Why Hong Kong is hitting pause on basketball betting

An advertisement for the Hong Kong Jockey Club’s eWin app at a betting branch in Sheung Wan on February 26. Photo: Eugene Lee


Prediction market platforms in the US, like Polymarket, allow customers to bet on binary outcomes of future events and overlap with sports betting. Photo: AP

Li Tie, then China’s coach, just before a World Cup football qualifier between China and Oman in the Emirati city of Sharjah on November 11, 2021. Photo: AFP

US special forces soldier charged with using classified intel for Maduro removal bet

Nicolas Maduro before his initial court appearance in New York City on January 5. Photo: Reuters

Nicolas Maduro in US custody on January 3. Photo: Reuters

Nicolas Maduro on a US warship after his capture. Photo: @realDonaldTrump/Truth Social via Reuters

US President Donald Trump watching the US military operation in Venezuela from his Mar-a-Lago resort on January 3. Photo @realDonaldTrump/Truth Social via Reuters

Opinion

Hong Kong Opinion

World Opinion

News

Hong Kong

Law and Crime

Society

Politics

World

United States & Canada

Lack of oversight allows prediction platforms to recast weighty issues as wagers and take bets from those exploiting privileged information


Lack of oversight allows prediction platforms to recast weighty issues as wagers and take bets from those exploiting privileged information.


Hong Kong Jockey Club

Donald Trump

United States

Regulation

Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)


Why governments beyond Hong Kong are wary of prediction markets

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Lack of oversight allows prediction platforms to recast weighty issues as wagers and take bets from those exploiting privileged information

Lack of oversight allows prediction platforms to recast weighty issues as wagers and take bets from those exploiting privileged information