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Paul Yip

Population figures released by the Census Statistics Department this month show that Hong Kong’s population has risen by 0.1 per cent to just over 7.53 million, the third straight year it has increased. Our population size seems to be stabilising, unlike in Japan or mainland China, where populations are shrinking.
However, upon examining the three key components of population growth – births, deaths and net migration – some trends require attention, despite a lack of discussion in the media.
Despite government measures such as the HK$20,000 (US$2,572) cash support for families with newborns, and 2024 being a dragon year, seen as auspicious for childbirth, the number of births increased to only 36,700 in 2024. This number is the third lowest since 1961.
The government spent HK$734 million on the childbirth handout last year. As the rise in population is partly attributed to the impact of a dragon year, this leads to questions about the cost-effectiveness of the handout.
It is possible that last year’s slight population increase may not continue into 2025 as historical birth data suggests a reduction in the year following the dragon year, as observed in the earlier periods of 1988 -1989, 2000-2001 and 2012-2013.
Additionally, the decrease in marriages in Hong Kong indicates that the increasing number of births in 2024 may revert to a decreasing trend in 2025, further exacerbating the already low fertility rate and serious population ageing.

In 2024, the number of deaths was 51,400, lower than at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic. However, the data suggests that while Hong Kong residents are living longer, they are not necessarily living healthier lives. While Hong Kong enjoys one of the longest life expectancies, data from the Chinese University of Hong Kong suggests an increase in the number of years spent with disability amid a slower increase in disability-free life expectancy.
This puts a significant burden on the healthcare system. With the number of deaths likely to outnumber births in the future, the challenges posed by an ageing population and sustained low fertility rate will persist. There doesn’t seem to be an easy solution.
The decline in natural growth has been somewhat offset by a gain in net migration. However, the one-way permit scheme that allows 150 mainland Chinese into Hong Kong each day to reunite with family members has not been fully utilised, with only 40,800 arrivals between late 2022 and 2023. Monitoring the evolving intentions of mainland Chinese to reunite with their families is crucial.
Since late 2022, Hong Kong has received more than 380,000 applications under the city’s talent admission drive, with around 160,000 arriving by the time of Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu’s last policy address.
A net gain of 21,000 residents suggests that a significant number of locally born residents or some of the new arrivals might have left the city. Ensuring the retention of new arrivals and addressing problems that might cause outmigration is essential for Hong Kong’s demographic stability and growth.

Affordable living costs, education quality, upward social mobility and a balanced lifestyle overall are the common concerns of people moving out of Hong Kong. It seems the government has put more emphasis on attracting foreign talent than retaining home-grown local talent. Could the push-and-pull factors for locals leaving Hong Kong be similar to the reasons for the government’s struggle to retain foreign talent?
Efforts by the Hong Kong government to attract talent from the mainland and overseas through various policy measures are commendable. Promotion efforts should cover a broad area to ensure Hong Kong remains an international city and hub for talent and capital. Meanwhile, initiatives to collaborate with mainland authorities to nurture talent will also strengthen the city as a global talent hub.
While we definitely need quality migrants to replenish our population, we must also show our ability to keep them here. Through providing undergraduate and postgraduate education around the globe, Hong Kong’s universities can play an important role in attracting talented individuals.
Hong Kong’s manpower and population projection must be updated and continuously monitored to attract top-notch talent and enterprises that can contribute to China’s high-quality development.
Low fertility and ageing seem to be an inevitability in Hong Kong and these are not reversible trends, despite the government’s efforts. As such, the government’s emphasis should be on nurturing and cultivating the capacity of people working in Hong Kong, whether or not they are migrants. Native Hongkongers and new Hongkongers alike can call this city home.


The story begins …

Hong Kong’s new chapter

Hong Kong population

Is Hong Kong’s population stabilising? No, but there’s room to grow

People walk across the street during lunchtime in Lai Chi Kok, on November 14, 2024. Photo: Elson Li

Parents hold up their children as they play at Sun Yat-sen Memorial Park, on August 10, 2024. Photo: Edmond So. 

A young person stands in the Hong Kong Talent Engage Office in Wan Chai, on October 30, 2023. Photo: Sam Tsang

Why Hong Kong must be careful about cutting university funding

The Chinese University of Hong Kong on January 8, 2024. Given 87 per cent of public universities’ reserves did not come from government grants, judgments concerning reserves must be evaluated within their entirety. Photo: Yik Yeung-man

The Baptist University campus in Kowloon Tong. Both Baptist and City University have said they can handle a 3-5 per cent cut in public funding over the next three years in the face of Hong Kong’s fiscal deficit. Photo: Felix Wong

Time to ask if non-residents should have Hong Kong healthcare access

A patient is wheeled into the accident and emergency department at Queen Elizabeth Hospital in Yau Ma Tei on January 31. Photo: Jelly Tse

Hong Kong puts Islamic finance experts, accountants on immigration fast track

Lawmaker Rock Chen has said the supply and demand of financial professionals with Islamic market experience in Hong Kong is limited at the moment. Photo: Jelly Tse

Kowloon Mosque. A spokesman for the Financial Services and Treasury Bureau said authorities hoped to further tap into the Islamic bond market with the help of financial professionals with relevant experience. Photo: Dickson Lee

Boost monitoring and outreach efforts to protect Hong Kong’s elderly

Silhouette of lonely old man walking near the window with a walker in the dark room ageing society elderly elder zimmer fram ID 1498775900 Photo: Shutterstock

Will Hongkongers be next to leave US under Trump’s immigration crackdown?

Immigration policy has become a key talking point for the current US administration. Photo: AFP

An academic has said the number of Hongkongers being deported may rise under US President Donald Trump’s administration. Photo: AP

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As the city’s natural population growth rate decreases, we can still ensure that enough local and foreign talent call Hong Kong home


As the city’s natural population growth rate decreases, we can still ensure that enough local and foreign talent call Hong Kong home.


Ageing society

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Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)


Is Hong Kong’s population stabilising? No, but there’s room to grow

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}As the city’s natural population growth rate decreases, we can still ensure that enough local and foreign talent call Hong Kong home

As the city’s natural population growth rate decreases, we can still ensure that enough local and foreign talent call Hong Kong home