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SCMP Editorial
SCMP Editorial

EditorialHong Kong’s U-turn on basketball betting a prudent move

Officials have warned that launching the betting scheme at this time would encourage participation in illegal prediction market gambling

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A screenshot of the NBA news website is juxtaposed against the Hong Kong Jockey Club betting branch in Shatin on September 11, 2025. Photo: Sam Tsang
SCMP Editorial
Hong Kong’s move to legalise basketball betting has suffered a setback. The government suspended the plan on Monday pending further study, citing the emergence of prediction markets which it says may prompt more people to turn to illegal gambling. Embarrassing as it is, the U-turn is a prudent step to ensure that the plan proceeds in the right direction.

Prediction markets are platforms where people buy and sell contracts on the outcomes of future events, with the prices directly reflecting the crowd’s collective probability estimate. The trading volume in these markets hit US$64 billion last year, a 300 per cent increase from US$16 billion in 2024. The amount is expected to jump fivefold by 2030, with more than 40 per cent linked to sports.

Officials were not being alarmist when they warned that launching basketball betting under such circumstances would encourage participation in illegal prediction market gambling. “To protect public interest from harm, new betting projects should not proceed until conditions are mature,” a government spokesman said.

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It is not unusual for policy and legislative machinery to be outpaced by technology and trends. The regulatory framework for basketball was put in place in a relatively short time, with the law passed last September, just seven months after it was unveiled in the government budget last year. While the about-face is a responsible step that enables deeper assessment of possible impacts, it raises questions about the policymaking and scrutiny processes. Arguably, the prediction market boom should have been known when the government opted for regulation.
The decision to hold back is as controversial as the go-ahead was in the first place. Similar to the contentious move to legalise soccer betting in 2003, the government had argued that authorised basketball betting could combat thriving illegal operations while opening up a new source of revenue amid spiralling public expenditure. It was estimated that the public coffers could receive an annual HK$1.5 billion (US$191.5 million) in tax revenue within years.
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It is good the authorities have not caved in to fiscal pressure and pushed ahead with the regulation without fully ascertaining the adverse impact on the public, especially the younger generation who are more attuned to emerging online moneymaking activities. It is incumbent upon the government to clearly explain the rationale behind the suspension while critically examining how the expanding prediction market business may affect local gambling business. The setback can be a good opportunity to ascertain whether authorised basketball wagering remains feasible and conducive to public finance without causing undue harm to the public.

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