Opinion

Will India’s economy continue to benefit from China’s own goals?

Wall Street is talking up India’s emergence as a key engine of global economic growth, amid high hopes for Modi’s third term

On Xi’s watch, China’s self-inflicted wounds from “zero Covid” chaos to the tech crackdown have only added to India’s appeal

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A worker spreads wheat grains for drying at a wholesale grain market in Jalandhar, India, on April 22. India’s agricultural sector, a vital employer, has underperformed, according to Nomura. Photo: AFP

William Pesek is a Tokyo-based journalist, former columnist for Barron’s and Bloomberg and author of “Japanization: What the World Can Learn from Japan’s Lost Decades”.

Published: 3:30pm, 30 Apr 2024

The China-versus-India debate of the past decade always seemed rather fanciful as Asia’s biggest economy boomed and hoovered up jobs and investment from every direction.

As 2024 unfolds, though, some of the globe’s top CEOs and investors rushing India’s way are entertaining the five most dangerous words in economics: things are different this time.

Apple is scaling up iPhone production in India’s youthful market of 1.4 billion people. Boeing is taking record orders. Tesla CEO Elon Musk is arguing that India has “more promise than any large country in the world”.

Consider, too, the reports that Wall Street is snubbing China for India in a historic shift. In January, India briefly overtook Hong Kong as the world’s fourth-largest equity market, the culmination of a US$6 trillion Chinese stock rout that began in 2021. Morgan Stanley predicts Mumbai will be the third-biggest equity bourse by 2030.