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Anthony Rowley

Led by Japan, East Asia seems to be setting off along a road to nowhere – beyond tension and maybe eventual conflict. This may seem a harsh indictment yet consecutive Japanese leaders have shown a lack of vision on the constructive role their country could play in achieving regional peace and economic integration.
The latest manifestation of this is Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s proposal this past week to G7 leaders in France to coordinate the stockpiling of critical minerals, including rare earths, to ease China’s grip on key supply chains.
The Asia-Pacific, according to Asia Undercurrent, a webinar series by Nikkei Inc and the Japanese government, “faces escalating demand for critical minerals, including those that are essential to industries ranging from semiconductors to renewable energy.
“Supply chain vulnerabilities have come to the fore amid recent conflicts that only exacerbate the need for resilient partnerships and technological innovation – and these efforts are on the rise. Yet partnerships between Japan and other nations of the region face the challenges of trade frictions, underdeveloped refinement capabilities and more.”
Takaichi’s argument to G7 leaders may sound sensible, in the same way that coordinating stockpiles of oil to counter the fallout from the US-Israel war on Iran appeared, superficially, to make sense. Likewise, coordinating security agreements between Japan and strategic partners in various parts of the world may appear justified.
Yet the logic (to put it politely) underlying these and similar agreements that seem to be proliferating is faulty and shortsighted at best, and irresponsible and potentially dangerous at worst. It shows a lack of vision and statesmanship that could easily push East Asia into renewed conflict.


The solution to the critical raw material supply problem cited by Takaichi in France lies much nearer home than far-flung nations in the Group of Seven, such as the United States and Canada. Northeast Asia, at the centre of which is Japan, has such critical raw material deposits in abundance, if only Tokyo could bring itself to acknowledge this and pursue greater cooperation with neighbouring countries rather than play up tensions.
Japan’s overtures towards the G7 in this regard assume that China is a threat or enemy which must be countered with collective measures of both an economic and a security nature – a posture which feeds the narrative of nationalist politicians in countries that resort to such strategies, and also fears within China of encirclement and external aggression.
It is significant and somewhat ominous that the government of Japan should be asserting its regional leadership within the G7 by promoting potentially divisive initiatives. It suggests Tokyo is reverting to its self-image as a leader in East Asia and an agent of an all-powerful US.
This image may have been valid in the early post-war decades when China was suffering arrested development (rather than taking a Great Leap Forward) under Mao Zedong. But it is hardly valid now, given that China has achieved a true great leap forward – while the United States is withdrawing as an Asia-Pacific superpower.


What is needed now is more expansive initiatives and a Japanese statesman with the vision of former Asian leaders such as Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew or Malaysia’s Mahathir Mohamad, or even figures such as respected academic and former Asian Development Bank vice-president Stanley Katz.
Back in April 2018, I wrote an opinion piece in the South China Morning Post in which I quoted from various observations in papers published by Katz during his tenure at the East-West Centre in Hawaii. In these, Katz referred to East Asia as the “last major economic frontier” of the Asian continent. It remains so owing to the absence of vision – not least among Asian political leaders such as the current Japanese prime minister.
The incentives for bold actions on Japan’s part are enormous. As the late Katz observed, Northeast Asia (defined by him to include China’s northeastern provinces, the two Koreas, Japan, Mongolia and the Russian Far East) is superwealthy in terms of human and natural resources – if only it were united, which it is not.
This, Katz noted, is partly a result of the political differences that have long divided the countries in Asia (making it possible for outside powers to divide and rule). The challenges to developing the region are huge and include, for example, Russia’s dispute with Japan over the Kuril Islands.

I wrote in 2018 that also, “problems of divergent ideologies within the region explain why cooperation has been so difficult for so long, as noted by Zhang Yunfang, former head of a research centre within China’s State Council, while former Kyoto University professor Takao Fukuchi observed that ‘only Northeast Asia lacks a clear picture for its development’”.
Little has changed in the eight years since I made those observations and, indeed, Japan’s cool reception (again, to put it politely) to China’s Belt and Road Initiative when it was launched in 2013, as well as to the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) launched some years later, further underlined a reluctance to cooperate with close neighbours.
All of this is a great pity and a great loss, economically and politically speaking, because taking the high road in statesmanship (or stateswomanship) could prove to be the golden road towards sustainable prosperity in East Asia, rather than a path towards tension and conflict.


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Japan’s G7 rare earth proposal risks further regional tension

(From left) Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, US President Donald Trump, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz prepare for a group picture at Hotel Royal during the G7 summit in Evian-les-Bains, France on June 16. Photo: EPA

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The problem with Japan’s bid to strengthen energy security, supply chains

World Bank president Ajay Banga and Japanese finance Minister Satsuki Katayama in Tokyo on June 1. Photo: Kyodo

 Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank president Jin Liqun, seen at the AIIB headquarters in Beijing, on June 20, 2025. Photo: Xinhua

Japan, Italy to boost tech, critical minerals cooperation

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi (right) shakes hands with her Italian counterpart Giorgia Meloni at a welcoming ceremony in Rome on Monday. Photo: Kyodo

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni (front) greets her Japanese counterpart Sanae Takaichi before their meeting in Rome on Monday. Photo: Kyodo

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(From left to right) Russian President Vladimir Putin, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping hold a meeting on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan, on June 28, 2019. Photo: SPUTNIK / AFP

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Tokyo’s overtures towards the G7 assume that China is a threat to be countered with economic or security measures


Tokyo’s overtures towards the G7 assume that China is a threat to be countered with economic or security measures.


Rare earths

Sanae Takaichi

Group of 7 (G7)

Commodities

China-Japan relations

Macroscope

United States

Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)


Column

Japan’s G7 rare earth proposal risks further regional tension

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Tokyo’s overtures towards the G7 assume that China is a threat to be countered with economic or security measures

Tokyo’s overtures towards the G7 assume that China is a threat to be countered with economic or security measures