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Chris Fitzgerald

The fragile ceasefire between the Taliban and Pakistan has broken, and there is now open war in South Asia.
This week has seen a dangerous escalation between the former allies, starting when Pakistan carried out a series of air strikes on what it says were terror “camps and hideouts” in Afghanistan’s border provinces. Pakistan claims it killed 80 militants, whereas the Taliban says villages were hit and 17 civilians were killed.
The two have since engaged in a deadly tit-for-tat of ground and air attacks that have reportedly killed hundreds of Taliban militants and dozens of Pakistani soldiers. This includes air strikes by Pakistan on Kabul and Kandahar, as well as heavy fighting on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border that the Taliban says has resulted in the capture of Pakistani soldiers and several border checkpoints.
The trigger for the latest round in fighting has been a wave of terror attacks in Pakistan by terror group Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). The group has claimed responsibility for the recent bombing of a mosque in Islamabad that killed 32 people, and has carried out several attacks on civilians and military personnel in Pakistan’s remote Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, which borders Afghanistan.
The TTP is a known Taliban affiliate. The two are ideologically linked, sharing a radical interpretation of Islam, and the TTP receives weapons and money from its patrons in Kabul. This has allowed the group to grow in strength and capability to wage an increasingly existential war against Pakistan’s military and government from its bases in Afghanistan.
Pakistan has a point when it says the Taliban has failed to stop Afghanistan becoming a base for terrorism. According to the Russian Foreign Ministry, there could be as many as 23,000 terrorists based in Afghanistan, including up to 7,000 TTP militants. The consequences have been several terror attacks in Turkey, Iran and Russia by groups operating out of Afghanistan since the Taliban returned to power in 2021.


The Taliban has also shown no sign of keeping its pledge to end its support for TTP, in defiance of repeated warnings by Islamabad. The Taliban sees the terror group as a useful proxy, and there are fears in Kabul that a break with TTP could cause political infighting within the Taliban because of ideological and familial links, leading to more TTP militants defecting to Islamic State and al-Qaeda.
Pakistan has run out of patience with the Taliban and its failure to reign in terror groups. In asking for talks to end this most recent round of fighting, the Taliban seems to be feeling the pressure. Yet Pakistan appears to have no appetite for negotiations, with its officials saying there will be “no dialogue” and that its ground and air operations will continue.
This is not a surprise. Pakistan is the overwhelmingly dominant military power of the two and has shown it can strike Afghanistan when it chooses, while the Taliban relies on military hardware left by the United States and does not have fighter jets.
The Taliban also has few friends in this fight. Washington has publicly sided with Pakistan, saying it has a right to defend itself against the Taliban and TTP. China and Russia are close to the Taliban, but apart from calling for an end to hostilities, they will not directly intervene on Kabul’s behalf. The Taliban is on its own and has few cards to play against its larger neighbour.


However, it is clear aggression will not solve the terrorism problem. Pakistan has been unable to defeat TTP in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and the Taliban and Pakistan cannot win a decisive victory against each other through force alone.
Both parties should instead seek to resolve their concerns through brokered negotiations overseen by regional power brokers and walk away with a long-term peace deal that addresses terror groups based in Afghanistan. Talks will take place eventually, and the Taliban will enter any negotiations as the weaker party. It will, therefore, have hard choices to make.
Despite close links and concerns over the regime’s fracturing, support for TTP is the underlying cause of the conflict and must end. The Taliban should publicly repudiate the group, halt any financial or military support and attempt to absorb TTP militants into the Taliban armed forces. Moving forward, any TTP attacks linked to Afghanistan would be a violation of any agreement with Pakistan.
The Taliban has also shown it can combat terrorism through its counterterrorism efforts that have reduced Islamic State attacks in Afghanistan. The Taliban should work closely with Pakistan, Russia and China to combat terror groups operating in Afghanistan, including Islamic State, al-Qaeda and any remnants of TTP. This would improve the Taliban’s reputation as an honest broker and could even lead to wider international recognition.

The alternative is a long-term cycle of violence that helps no one. Ongoing conflict would only destabilise Afghanistan further, leading to a higher prevalence of terrorism and the undermining of the Taliban as the country’s de facto rulers. Harbouring terrorists toppled the Taliban once before, after all.
For these reasons, the Taliban should renounce terrorism for good. It is a hard choice, but one that benefits the entire region.


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Opinion

Asia Opinion

News

Asia

South Asia

Working with neighbours to combat terror groups operating in Afghanistan will ensure peace and improve the Taliban’s international standing


Working with neighbours to combat terror groups operating in Afghanistan will ensure peace and improve the Taliban’s international standing.


Pakistan

Taliban

Terrorism

War and conflict

Taliban government

Russia

China

United States

Russia’s Defense Ministry

Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)


Taliban’s only hope for peace with Pakistan is renouncing terrorism

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Working with neighbours to combat terror groups operating in Afghanistan will ensure peace and improve the Taliban’s international standing

Working with neighbours to combat terror groups operating in Afghanistan will ensure peace and improve the Taliban’s international standing