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Opinion
Why coastguards, not warships, are shaping future of South China Sea
The test is not claimants resolving their disputes but whether they preserve the infrastructure that keeps encounters from becoming a crisis
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Robin Hu is Asia chair emeritus at the Milken Institute.
When ships from China and the Philippines encounter each other near the Second Thomas Shoal, most incidents are resolved without diplomatic intervention. No shots fired, no ministerial calls, no carrier deployments. Within days, encounters are logged, reviewed and absorbed into routine reporting channels.
That administrative resolution reveals how stability is maintained in the South China Sea. Debate over these waters still defaults to navies, deterrence and great power rivalry. However, most days in Southeast Asia’s contested waters are shaped by different actors: coastguard patrols, incident handling protocols and the bureaucratic infrastructure that determines whether encounters get filed away or escalate.
This is not about denying the relevance of naval power. It is about recognising what governs daily friction management: how vessels meet, how incidents are recorded and which escalation steps are avoided.
Daily behaviour is shaped by coastguard patrols, real-time incident management, evidence assembly and surveillance confirmation. Through these interactions, claims are reinforced, reputations formed and escalation risks either reduced or compounded.
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