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How Modi 3.0 could steer India-China relations
- A coalition government and closer ties with the West suggest a more cautious approach. Will Modi choose greater rivalry or cooperation with China?
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India’s latest election marked a resurgence of democracy, as voters pushed back against concentrated power and the ethno-nationalist sentiments in the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party. This shift may force Prime Minister Narendra Modi to reconsider his hardline policies and opt for more cautious approaches. Implemented wisely, such changes could bolster India’s international standing.
India’s return to coalition government brings to mind the diverse alliances from 1989 to 2014. These coalition governments implemented major economic reforms, spurring significant growth across various sectors in India’s journey to becoming the world’s fifth-largest economy.
But a rising India under Modi has also seen its relationship with neighbouring China enter a complex phase. Both vast and competitive economies, they are facing hurdles in building their friendship and, increasingly, security concerns are outweighing economic considerations.
Border clashes – especially in 2013, 2014 and 2017 – have shaped the relationship, and the 2020 Galwan Valley incident signalled a turning point. The long-standing animosity, China’s hegemony in the Indian Ocean and its salami-slicing tactics along the Line of Actual Control – a loosely defined ceasefire line – has pushed India towards the US. At the same time, China is drawing closer to India’s adversary Pakistan.
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