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Alex Lo

All hell broke loose in November when Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said a mainland Chinese military attack or naval blockade on Taiwan could be treated as a “survival-threatening situation” for her country. This legal threshold under Japan’s recently changed security laws could trigger a military response from its Self-Defence Forces.
One reason she cited before the Japanese parliament is that the island is only 100 km from Japan. Since then, she has done little to calm the diplomatic row with Beijing.
It’s anyone’s guess why a mainland attack on the island could be construed as an existential threat to Japan. How about staying away? But voluntarily fighting a nuclear-armed China, which has one of the world’s most powerful militaries, would create a genuine self-made existential threat to Japan.
Takaichi didn’t misspeak; she and her hard-right cabinet really meant it. So does Philippine President Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr. Earlier this month, while being interviewed by Japanese news media, he said his country would likely be involved in any conflict over Taiwan because of its proximity to the island.
“In the Philippines, we do not have a choice because Taiwan is so close to the Philippines and we have almost 200,000 Filipino nationals living and working in Taiwan,” he was quoted as saying.
There is always a choice such as staying out of any conflict and evacuating your nationals. Given the history of the Marcos family, it’s hard to know how much they actually care about the Philippine people. They certainly care a lot, though, about what Washington thinks. With the ongoing row between Tokyo and Beijing, Marcos Jnr clearly knows what he is getting into. His message was aimed at Tokyo as much as Beijing and Washington.
Dig a little deeper, and Takaichi and Marcos Jnr are saying the same thing. Yes, geography matters. In fact, it is supremely important in understanding what’s going on in the great power struggle of the 21st century in the Asia-Pacific. Just look at the map.
The first island chain of containment against China runs through East Asia’s coastline, linking Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines down to Borneo. Japan is now remilitarising. It has been fortifying the whole island chain of Okinawa, Miyako, Ishigaki and Yonaguni in the south, which forms a natural military bridge to Taiwan.
Taiwan – once described by General Douglas MacArthur as an “unsinkable aircraft carrier” – is the pivotal centre of this containment chain, its importance exponentially increased as the world’s most important manufacturer of advanced semiconductors. And Washington has been redeploying new military assets in the north and the south of the Philippines.
The US anti-communist containment strategy is one of the longest post-war military institutions that dates back to its occupation of Japan and shortly after its decolonisation of the Philippines. The US first colonised it in 1898 and fought a genocidal counter-insurgency to wipe out resistance, which foreshadowed Vietnam more than half a century later.
This containment strategy is today more active than ever, and likely will remain in place regardless of who sits in the White House. But it is the leadership changes of the island-chain nations such as Japan and the Philippines – and also Australia under the Aukus military alliance with Britain and the United States – that oscillate between slavish adherence to the US and semi-independence from it.
Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party predecessor, Shigeru Ishiba, pursued a friendly posture towards Beijing. This was a sea change from the late, hardline Shinzo Abe, who was Takaichi’s political mentor. Marcos tilts back towards the US after taking office. His predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte, turned anti-American and pro-Chinese.
The Marcoses and the Dutertes are two of the most powerful political families in the Philippines. To get rid of the patriarch, the Marcos government cooperated with the International Criminal Court to arrest and detain the elderly Duterte in The Hague to face trial for crimes against humanity allegedly committed during his brutal war on drugs when he was president.
The late Marcos, the father, was one of the 20th century’s most corrupt and brutal dictators allied with Washington. “Marcos was ruthless,” wrote Stanley Karnow in In Our Image: America’s Empire in the Philippines. “Marcos disowned other [powerful] families to provide his brother Pacifico with insurance, banking and real estate firms, and steered his sister Fortuna into shipping. He even helped his elderly mother gain control of timber, tobacco and food processing companies.
“But his most lucrative privileges went to a group of trusted businessmen who knew how to make money – and furnish him with enormous kickbacks. To favour them, and himself, he effectively created a heavily regulated corporate state that was quickly dubbed ‘crony capitalism’.”
His wife Imelda’s brother Kokoy, according to Karnow, was given businesses in “hotels, factories and shopping centres with loans from government banks”. Kokoy at one time served as ambassador to Washington.
Marcos Snr stole massively from US aid meant for the Philippine people. According to an estimate by the Philippines Supreme Court, over his 21-year rule, he had accumulated up to US$10 billion while in office. That figure was similar to one made by the Central Intelligence Agency. Karnow continues: “Through joint ventures, kickbacks and outright gifts, their cronies helped the Marcoses to accumulate a fortune that CIA analysts put as high as US$10 billion. The real figure will probably never be known … Marcos’ profligate rule had left the Philippines with a foreign debt of US$26 billion.”
Marcos Snr jailed and murdered political dissidents, most notably, Benigno “Ninoy” Aquino Jnr, his chief rival and critic. Most of the family’s fortune remains missing, but they laid the foundations of the Marcos family wealth, which helped fund Jnr’s political career.
Over the decades, some US politicians and prosecutors periodically made noises about recovering the ill-gotten gains. Presumably, US intelligence has a lot of dirt on the family, which can be a strong incentive for the current Marcos government to work closely with Washington today. That, presumably, includes painting a big fat target on his own country by hosting a massive US military build-up aimed at China.


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Opinion

The United States’ anti-communist containment strategy dates back to its occupation of Japan and shortly after its decolonisation of the Philippines. This strategy is today more active than ever


The United States’ anti-communist containment strategy dates back to its occupation of Japan and shortly after its decolonisation of the Philippines. This strategy is today more active than ever.


China

United States

Japan

The Philippines

Taiwan

Ferdinand Marcos Jnr

Sanae Takaichi

Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)


Column