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Cliff Buddle

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer swept to power two years ago, winning a landslide election victory with a promise to bring change. In his victory speech, the Labour Party leader pledged to forge national renewal, rebuild the country and “relight the fire”, after 14 turbulent years of Conservative rule. Change, he said, “begins now”.
Last week’s local and regional election results demonstrated in stark terms that he was right about one thing: change is coming. But the transformation of British politics unfolding is not what Starmer planned.
The outcome of the polls, which saw new regional parliaments formed in Scotland and Wales, along with local elections in England, were a catastrophe for the government. That was no surprise. It is deeply unpopular.
Now, Starmer is fighting for his own survival amid calls from more than 30 Labour MPs for him to set a timetable for stepping down. The prime minister vowed to see out his five-year term. “The voters have sent a message about the pace of change, how they want their lives improved. I was elected to meet those challenges. I am not going to walk away now and plunge the country into chaos,” he said. Cabinet ministers, at least publicly, appear to be standing by him – for now.
But a dramatic change in British politics is under way, as frustrated voters continue to shun the two major parties – the Labour government and Conservative opposition – in favour of upstart challengers to the status quo. A new era of multiparty politics appears to have dawned.
The biggest threat to the long-established order comes from Reform UK, the right-wing champion of anti-immigration policies led by the charismatic Trump-like figure Nigel Farage. He revelled in the gains made by Reform UK, hailing “a truly historic shift”. But the surge in support for the party in recent years is not the only problem faced by Labour. It is also losing left-wing voters to the Green Party, with its promise to tax the rich.
Labour lost in Wales for the first time since the creation of a devolved legislature there 27 years ago. Plaid Cymru, which supports Welsh independence, became the largest party with Reform in second place. The Scottish National Party, in favour of Scottish independence, won its fifth election in a row.
The carnage continued in England, where Labour lost more than 1,400 local council seats, a staggering result. The Conservatives, meanwhile, lost more than 500 councillors. Reform was the biggest beneficiary, securing over 1,500. The Greens gained more than 380 seats while the Liberal Democrats made modest gains.
England’s local elections, by their nature, return councillors to attend to local matters. They are not supposed to be about national politics. In the rural ward where I live, the Conservative Party’s pitch focused on the threat of “overdevelopment”, better co-ordination of roadworks and fixing potholes. The Tunbridge Wells Alliance, a community-focused group that has enjoyed success in council elections in the past, highlighted work including support for local farmers and protecting nature.
These are issues that lie at the heart of local politics. But it is interesting that a key election message conveyed by both of these parties was that they were best placed to stop Reform. This is now a feature of British polls. Reform UK divides the crowd, voters either love them or hate them. Many in the latter camp adopt tactical voting, taking the view that anything is better than allowing the right-wing, populist platform of Farage’s party to prevail.Reform UK did not even try to pretend local issues should dominate the polls. In a characteristically simple but – for many – compelling message it declared a vote for the party would lead to the downfall of Starmer.
Reform’s rise has been dramatic, but is easy to explain. Many Brits, like their counterparts in other Western democracies, are disillusioned with traditional politics. They want to see a change that will improve their lives, as they struggle with the rising cost of living, declining public services and problems with the national health service. Immigration often gets the blame.
This desire for a shift in direction is not new. It fuelled the UK’s misconceived 2016 vote to leave the European Union, the landslide “get Brexit done” election victory for Boris Johnson in 2019 and Starmer’s thumping win in 2024 with the promise of change. Now, it is driving support for Reform UK and the Greens. But voters should be careful what they wish for. The challengers to the mainstream parties might appeal in opposition, or as a protest vote. Their policy platforms and ability to govern, however, remain unclear. Reform’s credentials will be tested now that it has gained control of so many local councils.
Results at a local level do not always translate into seats in parliament in a general election. But the prospect of Farage becoming prime minister is, as things stand, a real one. His party has momentum, although it is worth noting that Reform’s projected national vote share in last week’s polls was lower than in similar elections last year. Some analysts suggest its support might be peaking. And the general election is two years away.
Starmer will fight on, beginning with a reset speech tomorrow and the King’s speech, in which new bills will be announced, on Wednesday. He is swimming against the tide, with many voters blaming him personally for the government’s failings.
The view that Labour cannot win unless it ditches its unpopular leader is gaining strength within his party. It is, in the aftermath of the disastrous election results, difficult to see how Starmer can survive for long. But changing the prime minister will not solve the many challenges faced by the government, from the impact of the Iran war to the damage done by policy U-turns and a scandal over the appointment of an ambassador to the US with links to child sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.
The party will also be wary of following the example set by the Conservatives, who frequently switched leader when in government. Stability is a virtue the Labour Party should not sacrifice lightly.
Voters have, as Starmer recognises, sent a clear message. The government must do much better. If you promise change you must deliver it in the form of policies that resonate with voters. People must feel the benefit.
In his victory speech two years ago, Starmer was right about something else. Bringing change would not be easy, he said, noting that the “sunlight of hope” would be pale at first. Today’s weather forecast for Labour is dark and stormy with little sign of those shining rays of light.


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My Take

Starmer was right about political change. But this is not what he planned

Britain’s Reform UK leader Nigel Farage reacts next to newly elected councillors at the Havering Town Hall, following the results of the local elections, in the London Borough of Havering, Britain on Friday. Photo: Reuters

Defiant Starmer digs in after UK Labour’s local election drubbing

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and his wife arrive at a polling station in London on Thursday. Photo: Xinhua

Reform UK party leader Nigel Farage (centre) arrives at Havering Town Hall in London on Friday. Photo: EPA

A man carrying a child leaves a polling station in the Golders Green area of north London on Thursday. Photo: AFP

UK PM Starmer says some pro-Palestinian marches could be banned, cites intifada chants

People attend a rally organised by the Campaign Against Antisemitism in London on Thursday, following the stabbing of two Jewish men a day earlier in Golders Green, north London. Photo: AFP

A forensics officer works at the scene in Golders Green, London, where two Jewish men were stabbed on Wednesday. Photo: Jordan Pettitt/PA Wire/dpa

Opinion

Frustrated voters continue to shun Britain’s two major parties in favour of upstart challengers such as Reform UK. But now their credentials will be tested


Frustrated voters continue to shun Britain’s two major parties in favour of upstart challengers such as Reform UK. But now their credentials will be tested.


Iran

Britain

Nigel Farage

UK Labour Party

Reform UK party

Conservative Party (UK)

Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)


Column

Starmer was right about political change. But this is not what he planned

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Frustrated voters continue to shun Britain’s two major parties in favour of upstart challengers such as Reform UK. But now their credentials will be tested

Frustrated voters continue to shun Britain’s two major parties in favour of upstart challengers such as Reform UK. But now their credentials will be tested