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Connor Mycroft

Nearly 670 Hongkongers have been granted settlement in the United Kingdom under its bespoke BN(O) visa pathway, although the total number of applicants has fallen short of the British government’s lowest “core” estimate five years after its launch.
While tens of thousands of Hongkongers are set to qualify for Indefinite Leave to Remain, or settled status, this year, experts suggested that uncertainties over the UK’s long-term settlement of migrants could deter future applications.
The UK introduced the pathway for relevant passport holders in January 2021 in response to the Beijing-imposed national security law.
While the UK announced it would double the permanent settlement qualifying period for migrants to 10 years, Hongkongers on the BN(O) route remain able to qualify for Indefinite Leave to Remain after just five years, followed by citizenship after another year.
According to figures released last week by the Home Office, Britain’s interior ministry, nearly 670 Hongkongers had been granted settlement under the British National (Overseas) route as of the end of 2025.
It noted that some individuals may have qualified earlier as time spent on other migration routes counted towards the five-year residence period.
According to the statistics, about 46,900 Hongkongers arrived in the UK under the scheme in its first year of implementation, and thus will soon be able to apply for permanent settlement.
The latest figures also show that UK authorities received 191,665 out-of-country BN(O) visa applications between 2021 and 2025, with about 172,000 successful applicants having arrived in the country.
The Home Office also recorded about 50,000 in-country extensions over the same period.
But those figures fall short of the lowest “core” estimate the Home Office formulated in 2020, ahead of the scheme’s launch, when it compiled an impact assessment related to the estimated social and economic costs of the programme between 2021 and 2025.
In the document, the Home Office assessed the cost based on what it called two “core scenarios”, with one estimating 258,000 applications and the other 322,400.
Heather Rolfe, a senior research fellow with the London-based think tank British Future, said the shortfall was likely due to the previous Conservative government overestimating expected applicants out of “political caution”.
Previous UK governments had “significantly underestimated” the interest in other migration schemes, she said.
“Given that migration is a highly salient and contentious issue in the UK, they would have wanted to avoid that kind of controversy,” she said.
Other factors affecting interest included that Hongkongers were given other options to resettle, such as in Canada, as well as the costs associated with the visa itself, Rolfe noted.
She also expected more applicants to apply for the scheme following a relaxation that was announced earlier this month in light of the sentencing of former media boss Jimmy Lai Chee-ying in his landmark national security trial.
In response to Lai’s 20-year term, the Home Office announced that it would expand the scheme to include Hongkongers who were minors at the time of the 1997 handover to China and whose parents had not applied for a BN(O) passport beforehand.
The Home Office said it expected 26,000 arrivals under the expanded scheme over the next five years.
But Rolfe said “current uncertainty” over the long-term settlement of migrants in the UK could deter further applications in the short term, pointing to an overhaul of the migration model proposed in November.


While Hongkongers under the BN(O) scheme expressed relief about the unchanged five-year qualifying period, they were plunged back into anxiety after discovering they would be subject to tighter English-language requirements.
An income threshold requiring applicants to show earnings of at least £12,570 (US$16,940) for three to five years was also being considered.
UK Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood previously indicated that any changes were expected to begin to take effect as early as April.
In a letter dated February 13, a day after the consultation ended, UK Migration Minister Mike Tapp said the government understood how important the issues were to the Hong Kong community and that it was now “carefully reviewing” the submissions it had received.
“This analysis will help inform the development of the final earned settlement model, including consideration of any potential exemptions or transitional measures,” he said.
Brandon To, a Hongkonger who settled in the town of Harrow under the BN(O) scheme, shared the minister’s letter on X, writing: “We are delighted to hear that the government is finally considering ‘transitional measures’.
“We look forward to more concrete promises from the government to protect Hongkongers’ rights in the UK.”


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Applications fall short of target as 670 Hongkongers settle in UK with BN(O) visa

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Experts also suggest uncertainties over country’s long-term settlement of migrants could deter future applicants


Experts also suggest uncertainties over country’s long-term settlement of migrants could deter future applicants.


Applications fall short of target as 670 Hongkongers settle in UK with BN(O) visa

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Experts also suggest uncertainties over country’s long-term settlement of migrants could deter future applicants

Experts also suggest uncertainties over country’s long-term settlement of migrants could deter future applicants