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Dannie Peng

Chinese cities must brace for a potential nuclear attack, a new study has warned, singling out Japan for “sending a major danger signal” to the world.
The report, from a People’s Liberation Army medical team, said the likelihood of a large-scale global nuclear war was relatively low.
“However, the possibility cannot be ruled out that small or medium-sized nuclear-armed or potentially nuclear-armed states, driven by geopolitical or religious conflicts, could carry out a single nuclear-weapon terrorist attack on neighbouring countries or on key cities of major powers,” they wrote.
The study, from the PLA Rocket Force Characteristic Medical Centre, was published last Friday in the peer-reviewed Chinese Journal of Radiological Health.
The researchers specifically named Japan as a major concern.
They said Tokyo had yet to accede to the first legally binding international agreement to ban nuclear arms, signed in 2017, and was considering a change to its long-standing policy, known as the “three non-nuclear principles” of not possessing, not producing and not permitting the introduction of nuclear weapons.
“Japan has still not acceded to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, and the current Japanese government is even openly considering revising the principle of ‘non-introduction of nuclear weapons’ within its ‘three non-nuclear principles’, sending a major danger signal to the international community,” the report said.


In January 2022, the five United Nations Security Council permanent members – China, the United States, Russia, Britain and France – issued a joint statement affirming that “a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought”.
But the PLA study warned: “Once certain countries or terrorist groups take such a risk, the possibility that Chinese cities could suffer a nuclear terrorist attack cannot be ruled out.”
The study modelled a scenario in which a major Chinese city was subjected to a single, low-yield nuclear terrorist attack – using smaller-scale tactical weapons.
Drawing on historical data from the 1945 Hiroshima bomb and simulations carried out around the world, they said medical teams would face a range of challenges after an attack, ranging from hazardous conditions and widespread social disorder to complex injury patterns.
Beijing has already established an emergency rescue network comprising more than 30 bases to treat casualties from a nuclear attack.
The researchers argued that China should further expand its treatment capacity with more resources and specialised training.
They also suggested that local authorities should stockpile sufficient emergency supplies – including antibiotics and radiation-protection equipment – and ensure they were kept in a state of “combat readiness”.
Society as a whole must also strengthen public education on nuclear and radiation safety, rescue protocols and protective measures to minimise irrational behaviour and panic in the event of an emergency, the study added.
Compared with the emergency medical response to a civilian nuclear facility accident, even a low-yield nuclear terrorist attack would cause heavy casualties and complex, multi-trauma injuries.
Such an event would pose a “huge test” for the medical capacity of any city or country, the authors wrote, urging China to “prepare for a rainy day”.
Beijing has repeatedly accused Tokyo of pursuing “remilitarisation” and has long held suspicions about its nuclear ambitions.


An official report released in January alleged that Japan “may already have produced weapons-grade plutonium in secret” and possessed “the technological and economic capabilities to achieve nuclear armament in a short period of time”.
It added that the country had “established a comprehensive nuclear fuel cycle system and possesses robust nuclear industrial capabilities”.
Fears of a renewed global arms race are also escalating. The end of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty – the last remaining cap on US and Russian nuclear arms – has only amplified these concerns.
In April, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres warned that the momentum behind nuclear proliferation was building.
“For too long, the treaty has been eroding. Commitments remain unfulfilled. Trust and credibility are wearing thin. The drivers of proliferation are accelerating,” Guterres said during a gathering to review the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.


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Study by a rocket force medical team also warns there is a risk of attacks on cities ‘driven by geopolitical or religious conflicts’


Study by a rocket force medical team also warns there is a risk of attacks on cities ‘driven by geopolitical or religious conflicts’.


Japan

United Nations

PLA Rocket Force highlights ‘major danger signal’ from Japan in nuclear terror study

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Study by a rocket force medical team also warns there is a risk of attacks on cities ‘driven by geopolitical or religious conflicts’

Study by a rocket force medical team also warns there is a risk of attacks on cities ‘driven by geopolitical or religious conflicts’