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In China’s arid northwest, state media have been celebrating an increase in much-needed rainfall.
The Ningxia Hui autonomous region usually averages about 300mm (about 12 inches) of rain per year, but the annual total has risen in recent years by around 12mm.
The rain belt was moving northwards, shifting the 400mm precipitation line – the vital boundary that separates China’s arid grazing lands from its humid, agricultural heartland, the Ningxia Broadcasting News Centre reported last month.
This “heavenly fortune” would bring “climate dividends”, the report said, promising that “loess soil will turn green and farming area will expand”.
During the Tang dynasty “warm period”, it said, temperatures in northern China were 1 to 2 degrees Celsius (1.8 Fahrenheit) higher than now, and the area that is Ningxia today used to serve as the granary north of the Great Wall.


“The warming and greening of northwest China is not accidental but the restart of a millennia-long climate cycle,” the broadcaster reported on social media on July 21.
“As the rain belt moves northwards, the north is experiencing a warm and humid climate comparable to the prosperous Tang dynasty (618AD to 907AD). Ningxia is the most vivid example of this benefit.”
But it also warned that climate change was a “gentle double-edged sword”, bringing new challenges such as flash floods, higher evaporation rates and new crop pests.
On July 26, intense rainstorms battered the city of Guyuan in Ningxia, driving the official warning level from the lowest to the highest in just six hours. Peak rainfall reached nearly 100mm, forcing the emergency evacuation of scores of residents.
Climate scientists warn that romanticised narratives ignore the volatile reality of modern climate change.
While they agree Ningxia has seen an increase in rainfall and a warming-wetting trend, they caution that framing it as a “return to a golden age” is scientifically misleading and potentially dangerous for long-term policy and economic planning.
“I would be very cautious about describing this as a simple ‘return to a golden age’,” said Benjamin Horton, dean of the school of energy and environment at City University of Hong Kong.
More rainfall would not guarantee long-term water security, he warned, noting that rising temperatures increased evaporation rates, potentially offsetting rainfall gains while drought risks persisted.
Climate extremes may also worsen, with heavy downpours accelerating erosion, triggering flash floods and damaging infrastructure.
Ecological disruptions could follow, with invasive species, pests and pathogens surviving more easily under rapid greening and warmer winters.


Horton noted that while a supportive climate might have played a role in the flourishing of the Tang dynasty, that was only part of the story.
“While some evidence suggests parts of China were warmer and wetter during periods of the Tang era, its prosperity depended on political stability, trade, technology and governance, not climate alone.”
On a global scale, Horton said, “climate change creates a small number of winners and many losers”, pointing to widespread extreme heat, flooding, drought, sea-level rise, wildfires and food and water insecurity.
“Even Ningxia is not insulated from these wider impacts through supply chains, migration, markets and increasing climate volatility,” he added.
“The scientific takeaway is therefore not that climate change is beneficial but that some regions may experience temporary or localised advantages within an overall global trend that remains overwhelmingly disruptive.”
According to Yu Shiyong, a professor at Jiangsu Normal University’s school of geography, geomatics and planning, while “warming and wetting” trends have historical precedents, they are not uniform climate shifts.
“It was inaccurate to generalise that China’s arid regions became humid during past warm periods,” Yu said, citing research that showed varied responses to past warming.
His recent paleoclimate research found that some 8,000 to 6,000 years ago, growing season temperatures in the Hulun Lake basin in Inner Mongolia – northern China’s largest lake region – were about 1 degree Celsius higher and water levels 2.75 metres (9 feet) higher than today.
Yu urged caution on interpreting the trend.
“The warming and increased rainfall in arid and semi-arid regions of China are more likely manifestations of enhanced water cycle, redistribution of rainfall and increased extremes caused by global warming,” he said.
“Whether this represents a steady transition from arid to humid climate requires long-term observational data for verification.”


The northward shift of the multi-year average rain belt did not guarantee consistent rain every year, nor would rain fall when it was best for crop growth, Yu said, echoing Horton’s point about higher evaporation rates under warmer conditions.
He also highlighted the risk of maladaptation: a social and economic trap in which policymakers and farmers make irreversible, large investments based on a temporary climate window.
“The narrative of ‘heavenly fortune’ could influence land use and investment decisions including expanding marginal farmland and planting more water-intensive crops, increased density of orchards and tree plantations, scaling up cities and industries, and reducing drought preparedness,” he said.
“Decades later, if rain belts shift southwards, evaporation continues to increase or glacial water supply declines, these high-cost agricultural and urban infrastructure would remain locked in.
Yu also cautioned about “hidden degradation”, a phenomenon involving “greening on the surface while the deeper soil dries out”.
“When consecutive droughts occur, excessively high vegetation density could increase the risk of large-scale withering, pests and fires.”
Further, Yu said, global warming was driven mainly by human-induced greenhouse gas emissions at an unprecedented rate and that the risks today with modern cities, populations, agriculture, reservoirs and groundwater extraction were not comparable to those of ancient China.
“This ‘heavenly fortune’ is a real yet time-limited and potentially reversible climatic window,” he said. “It should not be seen as a permanent, unchanging natural condition.”
“It may offer opportunities for local adaptations, but it is not a simple repetition of the Tang dynasty’s climate, much less a natural benefit that can be realised indefinitely.”
Looking ahead, Yu said the evaluation of “wetting and warming” should shift its focus from simple metrics of total rainfall and greening to a comprehensive assessment of effective water balance, soil and groundwater reserves, streamflow stability, extreme events and ecological resilience.


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Higher rainfall across arid Ningxia has invited comparison to prosperous Tang dynasty ‘warm period’, but scientists offer a note of caution


Higher rainfall across arid Ningxia has invited comparison to prosperous Tang dynasty ‘warm period’, but scientists offer a note of caution.


Hong Kong

Benjamin Horton

City University of Hong Kong

Is China’s climate returning to that of Tang dynasty golden age? Experts warn of a trap

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Higher rainfall across arid Ningxia has invited comparison to prosperous Tang dynasty ‘warm period’, but scientists offer a note of caution

Higher rainfall across arid Ningxia has invited comparison to prosperous Tang dynasty ‘warm period’, but scientists offer a note of caution