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Lawrence Chung

Nearly half of Taiwanese lack confidence that Washington will continue military aid and arms sales to the island, a new survey shows.
The results of the poll were released on Monday, ahead of this week’s summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
The poll by Taiwan-based United Daily News found 47 per cent were not confident the United States would continue providing military assistance and selling weapons to Taiwan, slightly exceeding the 44 per cent who remained confident. Nine per cent had no opinion.
Conducted by the newspaper since 2010, the annual survey also found fluctuating expectations about direct American military support.
Two years ago, 49 per cent believed the US would send troops to help defend Taiwan, compared with 42 per cent who thought it would not. Last year, 49 per cent said Washington would not intervene.
This year, the balance was reversed again, with 47 per cent expecting US military troops to come and 43 per cent saying Washington would not send them.


“Faced with the threat of military action from mainland China, Taiwan can only rely on US security commitments, yet fewer than half of respondents have confidence in those commitments,” the newspaper said in a commentary.
“This is a deeply worrying figure,” it said.
The findings come as a proposed US$14 billion arms package for Taiwan remains stalled and Beijing presses Washington over weapons sales ahead of the Xi-Trump meeting in Washington on Thursday.
The South China Morning Post reported on Saturday that Washington was considering postponing the announcement of major Taiwan arms sales until after the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) summit in Shenzhen in November.
Multiple sources said there was a strong possibility Trump could extend the delay until the end of the year, given another planned meeting with Xi at Apec and the Chinese leader’s expected attendance at the Group of 20 summit in Florida in December.
According to William Yang, a senior analyst for Northeast Asia at the Brussels-based International Crisis Group, Xi was likely to press Trump over arms sales, including the delayed US$14 billion package.
“Beijing hopes that further delays will deepen doubts in Taiwan and among US allies about Washington’s commitment to the Indo-Pacific,” Yang said.
Jennifer Kavanagh, a senior fellow and director of military analysis at Washington-based Defence Priorities, said Chinese interlocutors she had spoken to suggested one of Beijing’s objectives was to have the package cancelled altogether rather than merely postponed or suspended.
But she rejected suggestions that Trump was preparing to trade Taiwan for concessions from Beijing, saying neither side was likely to view the issue in those terms.




Instead, Trump’s focus on economic ties with Beijing and reluctance to disrupt that relationship meant the package could stay stalled for some time, Kavanagh told a panel organised last week by ReThink Media, a US non-profit strategic communications group.
“I think this topic will definitely come up on the arms sale,” she said. “I think it’s most likely just going to get kicked down the road.”
If Trump and Xi meet two more times this year as expected, the package might remain stalled until 2027, Kavanagh added.
Uncertainty over new sales comes as Taiwan grapples with delays involving weapons it has already bought from the US.
The first two of 66 new F-16 Block 70 fighters ordered by Taipei are still in Hawaii, a month after leaving the continental US.
The aircraft, numbered 6727 and 6728, arrived at Joint Base Pearl Harbour-Hickam on August 21 but have yet to continue to Taiwan. An attempted departure earlier this month was aborted, with no official explanation given for the delay.
The timing has fuelled speculation in Taiwan that political considerations surrounding the Xi-Trump summit could be involved, although technical problems, tanker availability and weather have also been cited as possible explanations. No evidence has publicly established a political reason for the delay.
Lin Pei-hsiang, a legislator from Taiwan’s main opposition party Kuomintang, said such delays helped explain the survey results. Lin questioned how the public could have confidence when weapons bought from the US were not arriving on schedule.
“If weapons could not be delivered on schedule or did not meet Taiwan’s actual requirements after they were purchased, public confidence would inevitably suffer,” he said.

Su Chi, honorary chairman of the Taipei Forum Foundation and a former senior Taiwan security official, was more pessimistic, saying the chances of new US arms sales had become “very, very low”.
Beijing had made its opposition to Taiwan arms sales clear during Trump’s May meeting with Xi and would react strongly to further approvals, he argued.
Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary.
Most countries, including the US, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the self-ruled island by force and is committed to supplying it with weapons.
The survey also found that 56 per cent of respondents regarded cross-strait military relations as tense, little changed from last year but below a peak of 64 per cent in 2022.
Another 27 per cent described relations as moderate and 10 per cent considered them friendly.
Despite those tensions, respondents generally considered the likelihood of war relatively low.
On a scale of one to 10, with 10 representing the highest likelihood of conflict, the average score was 4.4 – broadly unchanged over the past five years but 1.2 points higher than a decade ago.
Asked without being given a list of options what was contributing most to cross-strait tensions, respondents most frequently identified Taiwan independence as the biggest variable.


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‘Deeply worrying’ result comes as US$14 billion arms package to island stays stalled ahead of this week’s Xi-Trump summit in Washington


‘Deeply worrying’ result comes as US$14 billion arms package to island stays stalled ahead of this week’s Xi-Trump summit in Washington.


Nearly half of Taiwanese lack confidence in US defence commitments, survey finds

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}‘Deeply worrying’ result comes as US$14 billion arms package to island stays stalled ahead of this week’s Xi-Trump summit in Washington

‘Deeply worrying’ result comes as US$14 billion arms package to island stays stalled ahead of this week’s Xi-Trump summit in Washington