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Seong Hyeon Choi

China expanded its nuclear warhead stockpile over the past year and might have increased the number deployed with operational forces, a Swedish think tank report said, warning that major powers were “walking away” from disarmament commitments.
According to the report released on Monday as part of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s (SIPRI) latest yearbook, China added 20 warheads to its nuclear stockpile as of January 2026, bringing the total to 620, up from 600 a year earlier.
China was significantly modernising and expanding its nuclear arsenal, with its warhead stockpile expected to “keep growing over the coming decade”, the report said.
While the vast majority of Chinese warheads are thought to be stored separately from their launchers, Beijing may now be deploying warheads on missiles in a few mobile battalions during peacetime exercises. SIPRI estimates that China may have increased its deployed nuclear warheads with operational forces to about 34 in January, up from 24 in 2025.
The report also estimated that China had 775 land-based missile silos as of January, with intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launchers exceeding those of Russia or the United States, and that Chinese ICBM inventories could match those of the other two countries by the turn of the decade.

Citing US government sources, the SIPRI report said nuclear warheads might have been loaded into some of the 100 missiles housed in three new silo fields, and possibly aboard a nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine conducting near-continuous deterrence patrols.
“[This] would mark a change from China’s long-standing policy of keeping warheads and missiles de-mated,” it said.
“When paired with an early-warning system (currently under development), the purpose of this deployment would appear to be to strengthen China’s second-strike nuclear capability.”




Even if China’s stockpile surpasses 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030, this would still only amount to about a quarter of either Russia’s or the US’ current stockpile, according to SIPRI.
China has also expanded and diversified its nuclear weapons systems, showcasing newly developed ICBMs as well as submarine- and air-launched ballistic missiles at a military parade in September last year.
These advancements included an increase in launchers for the DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missile, the fielding of a new conventional anti-ship version in 2025, and the addition of a long-range nuclear capability to the nation’s conventional bombers, the SIPRI report said.

Beijing has repeatedly said it adheres to a defensive, no-first-use nuclear strategy, maintains its nuclear forces at the minimum level required for national security, and is not engaged in a nuclear arms race.
Wilfred Wan, director of SIPRI’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme, said China’s recent activities could be seen as an attempt to “protect the survivability of its nuclear forces and ensure the credibility of its nuclear deterrent” amid US advances in precision-strike weapons and missile defence that threaten its ICBM force.
“Its missile silo fields are geographically located deeper in the country and are more shielded from attack. Meanwhile, modernisation of its nuclear forces has taken the form of diversification, to strengthen its sea- and air-based deterrence while reinforcing land-based missiles,” Wan said.
“The new systems being deployed or developed have a wider range, better stealth capabilities, are refuellable, and can carry conventional or nuclear payloads.”
The nine countries with nuclear weapons – the US, Russia, China, Britain, France, India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel – continued programmes to modernise and enhance their nuclear arsenals in 2025, with most deploying new nuclear-armed or nuclear-capable weapon systems during the year.

The total global inventory stood at 12,187 nuclear warheads in January, of which 9,745 were in military stockpiles for potential use. An estimated 4,012 of those were deployed with missiles and aircraft, with the remainder in central storage.
Russia and the US together accounted for about 83 per cent of all stockpiled nuclear warheads, though this share continues to shrink as other countries’ arsenals grow.
While the total global inventory fell from the previous year’s 12,241, this was mainly due to Russia and the US dismantling retired warheads, with the number of deployed warheads up from the 3,912 last year.
Between 2,100 and 2,200 of the deployed warheads were kept on high operational alert on ballistic missiles, nearly all belonging to either Russia or the US. Britain and France also maintained small portions on alert, while China and India began occasionally mounting warheads on missiles during peacetime.
“Influential voices, including some world leaders, are advocating nuclear weapons as a guarantee against attack by a hostile state. But making national defence and security strategies dependent – or more dependent – on nuclear weapons could significantly increase nuclear risks,” cautioned SIPRI director Karim Haggag.
The increase in operational nuclear warheads numbers was likely to continue and would “probably accelerate” in the coming years, the report said, developments it described as “more concerning” as states became “increasingly secretive about their nuclear arsenals”.

The shift has been driven in part by the collapse of arms control agreements such as the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New Start), which had required states to exchange data on their arsenals, the report noted.
“Under these circumstances, not only are nuclear stockpiles expected to expand, but the numbers of deployed weapons will also most likely increase.”
New Start was the last remaining nuclear arms control agreement between the US and Russia, capping deployed strategic nuclear warheads and delivery systems. Originally signed in 2010 and extended in 2021, the treaty expired on February 5 this year.
“The evidence is growing that the nuclear weapon states are sidelining, and even walking away from, their disarmament commitments and are instead flexing their nuclear muscles,” said Hans Kristensen, associate senior fellow with SIPRI’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme and director of the Nuclear Information Project with the Federation of American Scientists.
“By reaching for nuclear solutions, states are creating new risks and fuelling arms-race dynamics.”


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Swedish think-tank says Beijing now has 620 nuclear warheads and may be increasing deployment as New Start’s expiry ends arms control era


Swedish think-tank says Beijing now has 620 nuclear warheads and may be increasing deployment as New Start’s expiry ends arms control era.


China adds warheads as nuclear powers ‘walk away’ from disarmament: SIPRI

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Swedish think-tank says Beijing now has 620 nuclear warheads and may be increasing deployment as New Start’s expiry ends arms control era

Swedish think-tank says Beijing now has 620 nuclear warheads and may be increasing deployment as New Start’s expiry ends arms control era