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Amber Wang

The US military scaled back the frequency of its Taiwan Strait transits last year and kept a low profile during them, even as “Five Eyes” allies stepped up their passage, according to a report by a leading Chinese think tank.
Australia, Canada, Britain and New Zealand – the other countries in the “Five Eyes” intelligence-sharing alliance – deployed six warships to carry out five Taiwan Strait transits in all, the South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative (SCSPI) said in its report released on Tuesday. All the passages were accompanied by official public statements, the report noted.
The “notable rise” in transits by non-US extra-regional countries began in 2024, it said, with growing involvement by European and Oceanic countries compared with the previously dominant United States and Canada.
Hu Bo, director of the think tank, said such transits did not pose a direct military threat to mainland China, but were increasingly politicised.


“A military vessel transiting the Taiwan Strait is actually at a tactical disadvantage because the strait’s hydrographic conditions are not favourable for large warships,” Hu said during a press conference in Beijing to mark the report’s release.
“The Taiwan Strait is also so close to mainland China that foreign militaries gain little operational advantage there. So, these missions are more about sending a signal – what we call declaratory military operations.”
Beijing views Taiwan as part of China to be reunified by force if necessary. It also claims sovereignty, sovereign rights and jurisdiction over the Taiwan Strait, while maintaining that foreign vessels may transit the strait in accordance with international law.
Meanwhile, Washington and many other governments regard the strait – about 128km (80 miles) across at its narrowest point – as international waters, a characterisation Beijing rejects.
In 2025, during Donald Trump’s first year back in office, the US conducted just three Taiwan Strait transits, far fewer than during the inaugural year of his predecessor Joe Biden’s administration.
The US Seventh Fleet has also stopped the practice of issuing statements on every Taiwan Strait passage, a shift widely believed to be aimed at easing tensions.
Hu said the change was consistent with broader trends in China-US military interactions since the 2023 Xi-Biden summit in the US.
“Since the San Francisco summit, there have not been that many unusual close encounters or dangerous incidents between the Chinese and US militaries,” Hu said.
“In contrast, frictions between the People’s Liberation Army and militaries from countries such as Australia and Canada have increased.”
The trend in China-US military ties could continue, Hu said, after the summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Trump this month, where the two sides agreed to establish a constructive relationship of strategic stability.
“Competitions exist between the two sides but one thing is clear – neither side wants conflict, and both are willing to exercise restraint,” he said.
The report also highlighted growing military activities by what it called extra-regional countries – including Britain, France, Australia and Canada – that had continued to expand their military presence in the western Pacific over the past year.
Those activities included reconnaissance patrols, Taiwan Strait transits, forward deployments, drills and exercises, and port calls.
Australia was described as the most “aggressive” among them, having “sent military aircraft to intrude into the airspace of the Paracel Islands every year”.
The report also said Australia maintained year-round rotational deployments in the western Pacific, while most other extra-regional countries only conducted temporary deployments.
In 2025, the Royal Australian Air Force dispatched two P-8A Poseidon aircraft for a three-week deployment from May to June, and three P-8As for a two-week deployment from November to December, the report noted.
There were at least two incidents made public involving Australian and Chinese military aircraft in the South China Sea last year.
One occurred in February, when Beijing accused an Australian aircraft of intruding into its airspace over the Paracel Islands, while Canberra said a Chinese J-16 fighter jet had conducted a dangerous interception of an Australian P-8A patrol aircraft during a routine surveillance patrol in international waters.
A similar encounter took place in October involving military aircraft from both sides.
China claims and controls the contested Paracels as Xisha Islands.
The SCSPI report also noted an incident in October involving a Canadian CP-140 surveillance aircraft. It said the aircraft entered China’s East China Sea air defence identification zone and was intercepted by a Chinese J-16 fighter jet as it approached Chinese airspace and military platforms. According to Canada, the mission was aimed at tracking North Korean vessels suspected of violating international sanctions.


Hu said Beijing’s military responses to those foreign activities in the vast South China Sea were limited and targeted.
He also said that such increased military operations could heighten risks.
“Frankly speaking, these activities are not enough to alter the overall balance of power, nor do they pose a major military threat to China or the PLA,” he said.
“But strategically, they are not conducive to regional stability … China will inevitably respond, and that makes the overall situation appear more tense. Tactically, there is indeed a risk of accidents or unintended clashes.”


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Chinese think tank notes the changing risks: ‘China will inevitably respond, and that makes the overall situation appear more tense’


Chinese think tank notes the changing risks: ‘China will inevitably respond, and that makes the overall situation appear more tense’.


As Five Eyes allies boost Taiwan Strait transits, why is the US going a different route?

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Chinese think tank notes the changing risks: ‘China will inevitably respond, and that makes the overall situation appear more tense’

Chinese think tank notes the changing risks: ‘China will inevitably respond, and that makes the overall situation appear more tense’