How a Chinese company said it used AI to track US bomber movements over Iran

A Chinese company has tried to use AI analysis to track US aerial refuelling missions to detect the strike patterns of bombers over Iran. MizarVision, a private geospatial intelligence firm, published a report earlier this month analysing the activities of US KC-135 and KC-46 tanker aircraft during Operation Epic Fury. The report detailed critical links between known tanker movements and strikes against Iranian targets. Analysts said the tankers could be tracked through Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast signals, which are used to locate aircraft. Tankers are the most commonly tracked type of military aircraft. However, bombers are highly unlikely to broadcast ADS-B signals during operational flights so the firm then tried to match the location of the tankers with known or suspected bomber movements – something that is difficult to track. It was not clear what role artificial intelligence played in the process. The firm had previously conducted a month-long monitoring effort, which also used satellite imagery documenting the deployment of various US military assets across the Middle East. A recent post on one of the firm’s social media accounts – which has since been deleted – mapped the flight paths of US tankers travelling from Israel to the Gulf, alongside specific refuelling orbits for KC-135s in the region. The date of these movements was not disclosed. The report detailed how those tankers established refuelling positions to support US bomber activities. The company did not respond to requests for comment. All three types of US Air Force strategic bombers – B-1s, B-2s and B-52s – have been involved in Operation Epic Fury. Air Force General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told reporters on Wednesday that the United States had staged 62 bomber missions during Operation Epic Fury ahead of Tuesday’s ceasefire agreement. US Central Command had previously said that in the first days of the US-Israeli operation, B-1s had been used to degrade Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities while B-52s struck Iranian ballistic missile and command and control posts. Last week, a Wall Street Journal report cited two US officials who said B-2 bombers had dropped GBU-57 bunker buster bombs, also known as massive ordnance penetrators, on an underground compound belonging to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. MizarVision produced a detailed timeline that divided US tanker operations into three phases to track US bomber strike patterns. The initial phase was from March 1 to 5, which included a “suspected aerial refuelling involving a B-52H” over the Mediterranean on March 3. The firm said that during this initial phase there was limited intelligence available and most of the detectable aircraft activity was over Israel or the Mediterranean. It added this was linked to US efforts to gain air superiority in and around Iran. The next phase, from March 9 to 14, was characterised by the reinforcement of tanker activity over Saudi Arabia and the Gulf to “support B-1Bs and B-2s in striking Iran”. It identified the specific locations in the Gulf of a KC-135 on March 9 and March 14. On March 13, it identified a US tanker flying from Israel to Saudi Arabia, a country it said was “emerging as a refuelling hub”. It also said there was a possible correlation with a B-1B that reportedly landed at RAF Fairford in Britain for missions related to Iran. Operations reached their peak phase between March 15 and 17, including confirmed B-1B strikes. On March 16, the firm identified tanker activities supporting B-1B strikes. On March 17, it geolocated a refuelling position over the Strait of Hormuz along with an E-3C Sentry, an airborne early warning and control plane, and a B-1B that had crossed over the Mediterranean before reaching the Gulf. The operational linkage, it concluded, was a complete chain of airborne early warning, heavy bombardment and aerial refuelling – specifically targeting Iranian naval assets in the Strait of Hormuz and islands such as Kharg Island, a key hub for oil shipments. Hu Bo, director of the South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative, said bomber movements – much like those of fighters – could be inferred from tanker patterns. However, he warned “this method carries a high degree of uncertainty”. Fu Qianshao, a military analyst and former member of the air force, added that monitoring tankers allowed for a plausible assessment of US bomber activity. “Aerial refuelling zones are generally predefined, and tankers circling on station are relatively easy to spot,” Fu said.

How a Chinese company said it used AI to track US bomber movements over Iran

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}MizarVision tried to determine bomber movements based on aerial tanker positions and US attacks on key strategic sites

MizarVision tried to determine bomber movements based on aerial tanker positions and US attacks on key strategic sites