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Amber Wang

Alcott Wei

The Chinese defence minister has signalled strategic caution with his call for the country to “shape” a stable environment for Beijing’s broader political and diplomatic agenda, according to analysts.
Dong Jun made the call on Friday during a group discussion involving military and armed police lawmakers at the country’s annual legislative gathering in Beijing.
According to meeting minutes released to the media, Dong stressed four times in his fewer than 400-word remarks that the military’s tasks were to “stabilise” the situation – more mentions than building military capabilities and maintaining combat readiness.
“Efforts should be made to shape a secure and stable internal and external environment and safeguard the period of strategic opportunity,” said Dong, who is also a People’s Liberation Army deputy to the National People’s Congress (NPC).
“[The military] should stabilise the situation and shape the momentum … serve the broader political and diplomatic agenda, conduct resolute and effective struggle, stabilise and manage the situation effectively, and firmly grasp the strategic initiative,” he added.

“Period of strategic opportunity” is a political slogan referring to a historical window when external conditions are favourable for national development and to build power. In 2002, former Chinese leader Jiang Zemin declared that China could enjoy about two decades of strategic opportunity.
In 2020, President Xi Jinping said during the Communist Party’s 19th Central Committee’s fifth plenary session that “currently and in the period ahead, China’s development is still in an important strategic opportunity period”.
Zhu Feng, dean of the school of international studies at Nanjing University, said Dong’s comments on Friday signalled China’s intention to proceed with strategic caution as it faced global uncertainties.
“The basic tone of foreign relations and national security set during this year’s ‘two sessions’ further emphasises and highlights China’s ‘strategic caution’,” he said.
Zhu added that China’s caution on the Iran war and US President Donald Trump’s coming visit to Beijing also suggested a preference for restraint.
China was “unwilling to act as Iran’s so-called security protector” amid America’s attack on Iran, Zhu said, and would not allow the situation in Iran to disrupt Sino-US dialogue.
He argued that similar messaging from Beijing suggested that it had no appetite at the moment for military action on Taiwan.
“I believe the tone of this year’s two sessions indeed sends a very clear signal to the world: [Beijing] will not engage in military action against Taiwan for the time being,” Zhu said.
“Many people are concerned that Trump’s launching of wars might create a strategic window for China. However, China will remain very steady and cautious.”


Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary. Most countries, including the US, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the self-ruled island by force and is committed to supplying it with weapons.
This year, China’s military spending is set to grow by 7 per cent – slower than the 7.2 per cent growth rate over the previous three years.
Stability was also a major theme of Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s press conference on Sunday, with Beijing’s top diplomat mentioning it 19 times and saying that “China has always been the anchor of regional security stability”.
Lyle Goldstein, a senior fellow at the Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University, said Dong’s comments helped to paint a positive picture ahead of the Xi-Trump summit, now expected to take place by April.
“There is clearly an understanding that Chinese military strategy could impact the ‘political and diplomatic agenda’, so that is encouraging and may imply that the Chinese high command is itself trying to send positive signals in advance of the Trump-Xi summit,” Goldstein said.
On the other hand, Beijing’s descriptions such as “resolute and effective struggle” could imply a less optimistic outlook for regional peace, he added.
Recent events in both Taiwan and around the world may have convinced Beijing it has good control of the cross-strait situation and that current trends are favourable, according to Goldstein.
So far this year, the PLA has appeared to be exercising caution near Taiwan.
For the first time in at least three years, Beijing sent no warplanes near Taiwan for seven consecutive days, from February 27 to March 5.
PLA sorties began falling in the second half of 2025, with Taiwan detecting fewer aircraft than numbers recorded during the same period a year earlier, according to data compiled by the South China Morning Post.


Yue Gang, a retired PLA colonel and prominent commentator, said the reduced activity meant Beijing preferred stability this year rather than seeing the Middle East conflict as a window to move militarily on Taiwan.
“This year, the focus is mainly on stability,” Yue added, arguing that Beijing should not see global conflicts as an opportunity for war against Taiwan, even if the US were distracted.
“We cannot act impulsively.”
According to Ni Lexiong, a professor in the political science department at Shanghai University of Political Science and Law, China should have a clear understanding of its capabilities and the military “should not be influenced by radical rhetoric from the media and the public”.
“Currently, some media outlets are using exaggerated rhetoric in their comparisons of strength between China and the US and countries in conflict, which is not based on facts,” he said. “This may sway decision-making and lead to strategic miscalculations.”
Ni said assessments of the strength of other countries must be pragmatic and realistic and that China was learning from experiences, “especially from the conflicts in Iran and Venezuela”.
“I think these two countries had a misjudgment about their own capabilities, but China is not willing to make such mistakes,” he added.
Zhu in Nanjing said Dong’s remarks were also intended for new generals promoted in the PLA following the sidelining of several members of the old guard in the country’s anti-corruption drive.
He said Dong’s remarks sent a message that newly promoted PLA generals should not place their career above national strategy, adding that “no one should act because they want to display their capacity”.
Before this year’s two sessions, China’s seven-person Central Military Commission had dwindled to two members: Xi and the PLA’s anti-corruption chief, Zhang Shengmin. Everyone else had been placed under investigation in recent years.
According to CCTV footage, Xi joined the NPC’s military delegation at this year’s two sessions with a very different line-up compared with last year, with freshly promoted generals sitting among the gathering’s inner circle.


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Dong Jun’s remarks stressing prudence as Xi-Trump summit looms and amid Iran war suggest no military action on Taiwan for now, analysts say


Dong Jun’s remarks stressing prudence as Xi-Trump summit looms and amid Iran war suggest no military action on Taiwan for now, analysts say.


Stability comes first: Chinese defence chief signals Beijing’s strategic caution

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Dong Jun’s remarks stressing prudence as Xi-Trump summit looms and amid Iran war suggest no military action on Taiwan for now, analysts say

Dong Jun’s remarks stressing prudence as Xi-Trump summit looms and amid Iran war suggest no military action on Taiwan for now, analysts say