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Liu Zhen

Zhao Ziwen

People’s Liberation Army activities in the Taiwan Strait are being closely watched by the United States and Japan and it needs to find a way to operate effectively while being surveilled, according to analysts.
A report by Beijing-based defence think tank Lande said the PLA’s most recent large-scale drills around Taiwan – dubbed Justice Mission 2025 – were launched with no warning yet the response from the US and Japan was immediate.
It said that highlighted the constant presence in the region of the two militaries and their ability to react quickly.
“Multi-dimensional surveillance” was also pointed out by other analysts, who said the PLA must factor this into planning if its goal was to carry out a surprise attack across the strait.
The think tank report said that when the two-day PLA exercise began on December 29, US and Japanese spy planes had either diverted from routine patrol routes to circle nearby or they carried out sorties to the drill areas.


The aircraft included the US MQ-4C Triton drone and Japanese surveillance plane the Falcon 2000MSA, according to the report, which cited open-source flight path tracking data.
As the surveillance aircraft approached, there was a surge in sensor data being transmitted by the planes in a short space of time, the report said, without giving a source.
“The entire process was not an ad hoc decision, but rather a well-established emergency response protocol was likely activated,” it concluded.
According to the think tank, the PLA must move away from a mindset of trying to avoid detection and recognise that any major deployment would be discovered given the extent of US and Japanese reconnaissance in the area.
“The PLA’s operational planning must pivot from an emphasis on concealing deployments and operational signatures to guaranteeing mission effectiveness,” the report said.
That could be done through “efficient manoeuvring, comprehensive information control, and systemic resilience”.
It said advanced US radar such as the AN/ZPY-3 on the MQ-4C drone and military datalinks could be countered by using an integrated electronic warfare system to “scan, control, jam and deceive”.
The report also suggested the “controlled release” of information to actively mislead enemy intelligence, effectively shaping what the adversary sees.
Other military analysts have also suggested the PLA make efforts to counter surveillance, including electronic jamming and intercepting sonobuoys – sonar devices dropped from aircraft for anti-submarine warfare
Song Zhongping, a military analyst and former PLA instructor, said a key challenge for the PLA was how to tackle the extensive US data transmission networks across the Pacific.
He said while the Kadena Air Base in Okinawa, Japan was a critical “intelligence hub” for the US in the region, its intelligence and data transmission was done mainly via satellite rather than a single location.
“So they can route data to Guam, or even back to the US mainland,” Song said.
The think tank report noted that Kadena and also Naha, a Japanese air base on Okinawa, were vulnerable to strikes.


Yue Gang, a military commentator and retired PLA colonel, said the US and Japanese response to last month’s drills would have been part of a contingency protocol.
But he said during an extended exercise – or even a real battle – the US could rapidly deploy additional military assets for surveillance, reducing its reliance on any single weapon system or base.
“After a day or two, they could mobilise their full range of resources to form a far more comprehensive reconnaissance network,” he said.
Yue noted that as the situation escalated, data collected in Okinawa could be transmitted to the home port of the US Navy’s Seventh Fleet in Yokosuka, Japan, or even to the US Indo-Pacific Command in Honolulu.
He said the PLA could “create obstacles” for intelligence gathering, including through the element of surprise.
Yue added that any PLA operation to counter reconnaissance activities – such as striking US satellites or facilities – would depend on the scale of the conflict.
Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China, to be reunited by force if necessary. It has ramped up pressure on Taiwan since pro-independence leader William Lai Ching-te took office in 2024.
Most countries, including the US and Japan, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state. However, Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the island by force and is legally bound to supply Taiwan with weapons to defend itself.
Last month’s PLA drills were conducted soon after the US enraged Beijing when it approved an US$11.1 billion arms sale to Taiwan – the biggest ever.
It also came after ties between Beijing and Tokyo rapidly deteriorated following Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s suggestion in November that Japan could justify military intervention if there was a conflict over Taiwan.


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Analysts say that after rapid response to latest drills around Taiwan, military must move away from emphasis on trying to avoid detection


Analysts say that after rapid response to latest drills around Taiwan, military must move away from emphasis on trying to avoid detection.


PLA urged to find a way to operate effectively under the gaze of US and Japan

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Analysts say that after rapid response to latest drills around Taiwan, military must move away from emphasis on trying to avoid detection

Analysts say that after rapid response to latest drills around Taiwan, military must move away from emphasis on trying to avoid detection