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Fan Chen

Washington has reopened discussions on billions in arms sales to Taiwan, casting a shadow over a leaders’ summit just weeks away – a meeting already burdened by bilateral trade frictions.
US President Donald Trump is expected to submit a US$14 billion Taiwan arms package to the US Congress soon, according to senior Republican lawmaker Michael McCaul on Tuesday.
“I am confident the president will forward soon another package to Congress with an additional US$14 billion in critical military defence articles,” the Texas congressman said at a security forum during his third visit to Taiwan, where he received an award from the island’s leader William Lai Ching-te.
Although observers doubt the deal will go through before Chinese President Xi Jinping’s trip to the US, they warn that Taiwan is a strict red line and any arms package could derail bilateral talks.
The package remains under review by the Trump administration and was described by the US president as “a very good negotiating chip” with Beijing during his high-stakes state visit to China in May.
In the same month, acting US Secretary of the Navy Hung Cao said the US$14 billion arms sale to Taiwan was paused to ensure American forces had enough weapons for the Iran war. McCaul added that US policy did not allow diplomatic relations with Beijing to “tie up arms sales to Taiwan”.


The amount would exceed that of a historic Taiwan arms package approved late last year – a move that prompted strong condemnation from Beijing, which held a two-day military exercise near the island soon after.
“Last December, Congress signed off on the largest foreign military sales package in history at US$11 billion – and we aren’t stopping there,” McCaul said.
The Chinese foreign ministry has yet to comment on McCaul’s remarks.
Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China and has not renounced the use of force to reunite it with the mainland.
The United States, like most countries, does not recognise self-governed Taiwan as an independent state, but is opposed to any attempt to take the island by force and is legally committed to supplying it with weapons.
Wu Xinbo, dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, said the underlying intent of McCaul’s remarks was largely domestic.
He said that reviving the topic of arms sales reflected pressure from China hawks in Congress and the administration, who see Trump as bogged down in Iran amid rising Republican discontent that could jeopardise the coming midterm elections.
“As for the Trump administration, it is currently beset by troubles at home and abroad. Therefore, to stabilise things within the Republican Party – especially to win over China hawks – it may also need to play the ‘Taiwan card’,” Wu said.
Zhang Chi, a senior researcher at the Centre on Contemporary China and the World at the University of Hong Kong, said McCaul’s visit was aimed at “testing the waters” with both Beijing and Taipei.
Given McCaul’s close ties with Taiwan, Zhang said his remarks were “not surprising”, but they were delivered with “notable caution and diplomacy” without signalling any immediate action or deliverables.
“All of this underscores the central question: how will Trump handle the Taiwan issue as he attempts to build a ‘constructive strategic stability’ in US-China relations? Trump did learn a hard lesson on Taiwan early on … but it remains doubtful whether he fully grasps the issue,” Zhang said.


Trump and Xi agreed to the phrase “constructive strategic stability” to define the new framework of bilateral ties during their May summit in Beijing.
In that meeting, Xi called the Taiwan issue the “most critical matter” in relations with Washington, urging the US to handle the issue with “extreme caution”. He warned that if it did not, the two countries would clash and push bilateral ties “into a very dangerous situation”.
Trump said he and Xi “talked a lot” about the island during his trip, though the topic was omitted from the White House’s official statement about the meeting.
The American president told Fox News in May that the US would not fight a war over Taiwan. But he has sent mixed signals about future arms sales.
William Yang, a senior analyst for northeast Asia at the International Crisis Group, said it was unlikely that Trump would submit the arms sales to Congress ahead of Xi’s planned visit, as he would probably prioritise the summit.
“He has made it known that maintaining a cordial working relationship with Xi is one of his priorities when it comes to US-China relations,” he said.
Submitting the budget before Xi’s visit could risk delaying or cancelling the summit, Yang added.
“If the Trump administration thought they could use arms sales to Taiwan to impose pressure on Beijing, they could be miscalculating. In Beijing’s eyes, its position on Taiwan is non-negotiable.”
Zhang in Hong Kong stressed that there would be no guarantee that bilateral relations could maintain the current level if the “hard-won momentum” was disrupted again.
Both sides are paving the way for another leaders’ summit in Washington in September.
US Senator Steve Daines is expected to return to China for another round of talks ahead of Xi’s planned visit to help finalise the agenda and bridge differences, according to earlier reporting by the South China Morning Post.
Last month, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi discussed the Chinese leader’s trip with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Manila.




When asked about the arms deal, Rubio said it was still under internal review because Washington had to take its own stockpile into consideration.
Ma Zhaoxu, China’s foreign vice-minister, made a two-day trip to the US in July and met US officials. The visit was widely viewed as an effort to lay the groundwork for Xi’s trip.
Meanwhile, trade tensions between China and the US have continued to fester.
On Wednesday, Beijing announced a barrage of counter-sanctions targeting a group of American entities and a tightening of export restrictions on the drone supply chain.
The move was a response to a series of moves by Washington, including the addition of 43 Chinese companies to its entity list over allegations of forced labour in Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, as well as a ban by the US Federal Communications Commission on importing and selling new foreign-made robotic devices and power inverters.
Yang said these economic frictions would put the fragile trade truce under pressure, further testing the two countries’ ability to reach a consensus.
“In other words, both countries could find themselves falling back into the more escalatory competition mode if neither side is willing to soften their position,” he said.


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Chinese President Xi Jinping (left) attends a welcome ceremony for US President Donald Trump at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China on May 14, 2026. Photo: EPA

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Observers say US leader may be ‘miscalculating’ if he attempts to use the US$14 billion package to ramp up pressure on Beijing


Observers say US leader may be ‘miscalculating’ if he attempts to use the US$14 billion package to ramp up pressure on Beijing.


US hawks push Trump on multibillion-dollar Taiwan arms deal ahead of Xi summit

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Observers say US leader may be ‘miscalculating’ if he attempts to use the US$14 billion package to ramp up pressure on Beijing

Observers say US leader may be ‘miscalculating’ if he attempts to use the US$14 billion package to ramp up pressure on Beijing