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Shi Jiangtao

Five months and at least two ceasefires into the US-Israeli war on Iran, hostilities have intensified again, with US President Donald Trump reimposing a naval blockade on Iranian ports and American forces trading fresh strikes with Tehran.
The renewed cycle is testing both Tehran’s resilience and Washington’s appetite for a prolonged conflict, prompting some analysts to draw uncomfortable parallels with the political tolls that past US presidents faced in drawn-out wars such as in Vietnam and Afghanistan.
Oil prices climbed on Wednesday as the renewed escalation disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic chokepoint that handled roughly a fifth of global oil and gas flows before the conflict began in late February.
The US military on Wednesday said it had launched a “90-minute wave” of precision strikes that had “further degraded Iran’s ability to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz”.


Iranian officials reported more than 260 people wounded in the latest overnight US strikes, undermining an agreement reached last month.
Tehran, which insists it controls the strait, has launched retaliatory drone and missile attacks on US-linked targets in Jordan, Bahrain and Kuwait, vowing the waterway would stay closed “until the US ends its aggression”.
For the United States, the conflict has proved costly and inconclusive, presenting a complex yet familiar dilemma.
Trump has threatened to widen strikes to include power plants and bridges if Iran does not return to the negotiating table.
He has also drawn a parallel with the Vietnam war, telling CNBC in April that he “would have won Vietnam very quickly” had he been president then, contrasting its 19‑year duration with the Iran conflict.
Jodie Wen, a researcher at Tsinghua University’s Centre for International Security and Strategy, interpreted these remarks as both “a tough signal to Iran and reassurance to domestic audiences” ahead of the November midterm elections.
“The US does not want to get bogged down, but despite its overwhelming superiority, it has struggled to translate its strength into a decisive victory,” she said, noting US-led strikes had so far failed to topple Iran’s regime or resolve the nuclear issue.
Zhu Yongbiao, director of the Centre for Afghanistan Studies at Lanzhou University, also warned that Washington was showing signs of “sinking into a quagmire”, albeit one different from Vietnam or Afghanistan.
“It may not last as long, because from Trump to the military, there remains a certain level of vigilance within the US, and a reluctance to become deeply mired once again. This awareness helps prevent a repeat of past mistakes,” he said.




Yet disengagement remained difficult, he noted, citing Washington’s reluctance to concede while seeking gains in the Strait of Hormuz and hoping other maritime powers would share the burden.
Wen said: “The Vietnam quagmire analogy is not alarmist. If Iran does not play by US expectations, what will the US do next? It is indeed quite a headache.”
Both analysts noted that while the current conflict differed from Vietnam – particularly the absence of large-scale US ground deployments – key similarities remained: an adversary with strong ideological motivation, a high tolerance for costs and the ability to impose asymmetric pressure.
Zhu argued that Iran’s capacity to absorb sustained pressure reflected a combination of structural, ideological and institutional factors developed over decades of confrontation with the US.
“Iran is at least a middle power, arguably a major regional power, and such countries possess a natural, inherent resilience rooted in history, religion, national identity, as well as economic and geographic depth,” he said. “These factors provide Iran with significant endurance.”
Zhu highlighted the role of Shia political culture in the Islamic Republic, with its narratives of sacrifice and martyrdom, and the impact of long-term US-led sanctions in shaping what he described as a durable national temperament.
He added that incremental gains in successive phases of confrontation with Washington, especially perceived “victories” since the start of US-Israeli attacks on February 28, had reinforced Tehran’s determination and confidence to resist.
Wen pointed to Iran’s political institutions as another key source of resilience.
“Even after the targeted killing of senior leaders like Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, domestic politics remained stable and foreign policy coherent,” she said, adding that Iran’s legislative, executive and judicial systems were diverse and robust and leadership transitions had not led to collapse.


“A fundamental reason for this resilience is that neither domestic nor foreign policy relies on any single individual.
“There are relatively well-developed mechanisms that allow hardliners and pragmatists to quickly find a balance within the new power structure. These institutional mechanisms are the fundamental source of Iran’s resilience.”
Wen added that Iran also continued to maintain a strong influence in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and beyond through a network of regional allies and proxies, often referred to as the “Axis of Resistance”, such as Lebanon’s Shiite Muslim party Hezbollah.
“Although this network of proxies and alliances has been weakened by recent battlefield setbacks, it remains dispersed and low-cost, constituting a significant strategic asset for Iran,” she said, noting their abilities to complicate efforts by the US and its partners to weaken Iran’s regional reach.
Both Wen and Zhu also pointed to the Strait of Hormuz as central to Iran’s strategy.
“It is not just an energy corridor but a form of denial deterrence,” Wen said, noting that Iran did not need to fully close the strait to create strategic pressure. The mere risk of disruption could unsettle markets and raise costs for its adversaries.
Zhu characterised the waterway as a bargaining chip, arguing that it had become a focal point that served short-term strategic interests for both sides while giving Tehran extra leverage in negotiations.
He also cautioned against overestimating external backing, including China’s role, despite Beijing’s effort to position itself as a mediator while maintaining economic ties with Iran.
“The decisive factors are Iran’s own will to resist and its capabilities,” Zhu said, adding that external support played a largely auxiliary role, perhaps “as little as one-tenth”, in Iran’s overall resilience.

Wen echoed the view, describing China as an important economic partner and diplomatic advocate for dialogue, but “not a security guarantor”.
But she noted that Iran’s participation in the China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and Brics was vital “because Iran has no other platforms to project its influence as a regional power”.
Pressure from Israel was further complicating US efforts to withdraw, he added, warning that “uncontrollable risks” such as accidental clashes could easily spark a wider escalation.
“Ultimately, this tests Trump’s resolve,” Zhu said. “If he acts decisively, the US has the capacity to withdraw quickly. But hesitation, or the pursuit of additional objectives, especially economic ones, will slow the process and risk dragging America deeper into difficulty.”
On Tuesday, Trump dropped plans to impose a 20 per cent charge on commercial cargo passing through the Strait of Hormuz, less than a day after announcing the proposal, though the US naval blockade targeting Iranian trade continued.
Trump said the fee would be replaced by trade and investment agreements with Gulf states following talks with regional leaders, writing on social media that “highly productive conversations” had led to the shift.
Additional reporting by Teresa Elena Frontado


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US-Iran war: is Trump falling into a Vietnam ‘quagmire’?

Screen grab from video footage released by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards’ Sepah News website purportedly shows missiles being launched from an undisclosed location towards US targets in Bahrain and Kuwait on July 14. Photo: AFP

Smoke rises from an explosion following a drone strike on a warehouse in Al Shuaiba, Kuwait, by Iran. Photo: social media via Reuters

Trump scraps Hormuz toll plan but presses ahead with Iran blockade

US President Donald Trump in the Oval Office at the White House on Tuesday. Photo: Reuters

Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi and US President Donald Trump in the Oval Office. Photo: Reuters

A drone being launched by Iran from an unknown location to attack US positions in Jordan. Photo: IRIB via Reuters

US and Iran trade more attacks as battle over Hormuz intensifies

A projectile is fired during what US Central Command said were strikes against Iranian military targets, in an image taken from video released on July 12. Photo: CENTCOM via Reuters



A target at an unknown location, during what US Central Command said were strikes on Iran, in an image taken from video released on July 12. Photo: CENTCOM via Reuters

Air defence interceptions in the sky above Doha, Qatar on Sunday. Photo: dpa

Cargo ships anchoring near the Strait of Hormuz off the eastern coast of the United Arab Emirates at Khor Fakkan. Photo: AFP

Trump claims Iran wants to resume talks with US despite ceasefire breaches

US President Donald Trump said on Friday that Washington had agreed to resume discussions with Iran despite military exchanges resuming this week. Photo: Getty Images via AFP

US strikes Iran again, Tehran fires back at neighbouring Gulf states

An explosion at an unknown location following what the US military said were strikes on Iranian targets. Photo: US Central Command via Reuters

Mourners surround the coffin of Iran’s late supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Karbala, Iraq, as a fresh wave of exchanges shake a ceasefire. Photo: Reuters

Iran threatens to close more vital seaways as US renews blockade

A woman in Tehran holds a poster depicting US President Donald Trump in the  crosshairs. Photo: AP

An explosion during what US Central Command says are new strikes on Iran on Tuesday. Photo: CENTCOM via Reuters

A drone moments before striking a warehouse in Al Shuaiba, Kuwait. Photo: Social media via Reuters

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Renewed strikes put Washington’s appetite for a prolonged war to a familiar historical test, analysts say


Renewed strikes put Washington’s appetite for a prolonged war to a familiar historical test, analysts say.


US-Iran war: is Trump falling into a Vietnam ‘quagmire’?

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Renewed strikes put Washington’s appetite for a prolonged war to a familiar historical test, analysts say

Renewed strikes put Washington’s appetite for a prolonged war to a familiar historical test, analysts say