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The deal between the US and Iran aims to halt the war and energy disruptions that have rattled the global economy, but observers warn the agreement is built on ground too shaky to guarantee a lasting peace.
US President Donald Trump and his Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian electronically signed a long-anticipated memorandum of understanding (MOU) on Wednesday to end the US-Israel war on Iran.
Trump signed it at a dinner at the Palace of Versailles, where he was joined by French President Emmanuel Macron and French first lady Brigitte Macron.
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, a key mediator, posted on social media that the “Islamabad MOU” would enter into force with immediate effect and, as a first step, Iran would instantly reopen the Strait of Hormuz while the US would “immediately lift the naval blockade”.
On the surface, the 14-point deal meant that Washington had made far greater concessions than Tehran, said Niu Xinchun, director of the China-Arab Research Institute at Ningxia University.
“At present, it appears that the United States has made more concessions, largely because Washington is more desperate to disentangle itself from the war,” Niu said.
According to an outline of the agreement released by the US on Wednesday, the deal covers some of the issues most critical to Iran.
Under the MOU, any final agreement would require the US to lift all United Nations and unilateral sanctions against Iran on an agreed schedule. Washington would lift restrictions on Iran’s oil exports, at least temporarily, and fully unfreeze Iranian assets and withdraw forces around Iran within 30 days, while Iran would ensure safe commercial passage in the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days.
The US would work with regional partners on a US$300 billion reconstruction fund for Iran, effective within 60 days of the final agreement, with negotiations continuing for up to 60 days, extendable by mutual consent.
Meanwhile, Tehran seems to have given up very little in return.
When Trump launched the war in late February, he cited Iran’s nuclear programme as the main reason for taking the action.
The US text released on Wednesday said Tehran would reaffirm that it would not produce or acquire nuclear weapons, though there is no requirement for Iran to give up nuclear materials or ship them outside the country.
Tehran has consistently maintained this position since the 1979 revolution, never openly stating any intention to develop nuclear weapons.
On the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the MOU requires Iran to ensure toll-free passage for commercial vessels for at least 60 days, though there was no mention of a permanent waiver.
In a sign of a potential rise in oil flows, three Saudi supertankers carrying six million barrels of crude sailed through the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday. They were the first Saudi-owned crude tankers to cross the strait since the war began. A Chinese fuel tanker, an oil tanker from the United Arab Emirates and a ship carrying Qatari liquefied natural gas (LNG) were also detected passing through the strait, according to Bloomberg.
Speaking in Beijing, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian called on both Iran and the US to maintain “rationality and pragmatism” so as to “achieve positive outcomes” in future negotiations.
Zhang Chuchu, deputy director of the Centre for Middle Eastern Studies at Fudan University, called the deal “a rough temporary framework” with “enormous uncertainty” ahead.
“In the Middle East, peace talks and fighting can happen simultaneously. We need to watch how this actually plays out,” she added.
There has been widespread hope that an end to the conflict – along with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz – would restore some stability to the region, particularly for the Gulf states. In recent months, their energy revenues have been choked off, their economic confidence shattered and their infrastructure battered by Iranian missile strikes.
But the real test will come in the 60-day negotiation period, when Washington and Tehran must hammer out critical details such as nuclear oversight and the implementation of a comprehensive ceasefire, according to Chinese observers.
The waterway’s closure since March has disrupted shipments of vital goods such as oil, gas and fertiliser, driving up prices and inflation around the world.
The language on the Strait of Hormuz also differs in the respective versions released by the US and Iran. The Iranian version stated that it would make arrangements for safe passage “with no charge, for 60 days only”, while the US text omitted the word “only”.
Crucially, the issue of whether Tehran would retain control of the strait remains unanswered.
“Before the US military actions, Iran was not blocking the Strait of Hormuz anyway. But after a round of conflict, Washington has not gained anything but has to promise to lift some economic sanctions on Iran,” Zhang said.


In what could be seen as a concession by Washington, the promised sanctions relief appears to go further than the 2015 nuclear deal, as the US text commits to terminating “all types of sanctions” against Iran – including UN Security Council measures and unilateral American penalties on “an agreed-upon schedule as part of the final deal”.
The Obama-era Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which Trump abandoned in 2018, only lifted secondary sanctions tied to Iran’s nuclear programme.
On the sidelines of the Group of Seven (G7) summit in Paris on Wednesday, Trump defended the MOU, stating that he wanted to prevent an “economic catastrophe”.
He said he did not want to be compared to former US president Herbert Hoover, who presided over the 1929 stock market crash that triggered the Great Depression.
“He was always the one I didn’t want to be,” Trump said. “I didn’t want to see an economic catastrophe.”
Observers agreed that to reach a final peace deal, the two sides would have to navigate uncertainties ahead.
While the MOU called for “immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon”, there is no sign Israel will stop its attacks.
Hours after the US and Iran signed the deal, an Israeli drone attack targeted a car in southern Lebanon on Thursday, killing one person and seriously wounding another, according to Lebanon’s National News Agency.
Israeli Minister of National Security Itamar Ben-Gvir said that Israel was not bound to Trump’s US-Iran ceasefire agreement, after news surfaced on Sunday that Tehran and Washington were expected to sign a deal.
The Iranian foreign ministry said on Wednesday that no formal signing ceremony would take place in Switzerland as the MOU had already been signed.
However, plans remain in place for meetings between the two negotiation teams, led by US Vice-President J.D. Vance and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.
The Swiss foreign ministry said on Thursday that the first negotiations on the implementation of the agreement were expected to take place on Friday at Switzerland’s Buergenstock, a mountain resort that hosted a Ukraine peace summit in 2024.
Trump has tried to press Israel over the attacks in Lebanon, saying that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “has to be more responsible” in dealing with his country’s northern neighbour.
“I suggested to Israel to let Syria take care of Hezbollah. Because, to be honest with you, I think they’d do a better job of doing it,” Trump said on Tuesday, referring to the Iran-backed armed group based in Lebanon.
“I didn’t like where two hours before we’re signing the agreement that there was an attack in Lebanon, in Beirut,” Trump said on Tuesday, adding that he and Netanyahu maintained a “great relationship”.
Zhang said Israel was the biggest unknown.
“This agreement only seems to have substantive meaning for the US and Iran. But the problem is, it was not the US attacking Lebanon in the first place,” Zhang said.
“So this creates a dilemma: if Israel continues its action in Lebanon, it is likely to become a key variable affecting subsequent negotiations.”


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US President Donald Trump (centre) signs a memorandum of understanding with Iran in Versailles, France on June 17 as French President Emmanuel Macron (right) and his wife Brigitte Macron (left) look on. Photo: AFP and X/Scavino47

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Vessels anchored at the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam, Oman, on Tuesday. Photo: Reuters

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US President Donald Trump, flanked by US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick and Secretary of State Marco Rubio during a media conference at the end of the G7 summit. Photo: AP

French President Emmanuel Macron and US President Donald Trump, as seen near a window at the Palace of Versailles. Photo: Reuters

Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian holding a document showing a memorandum of understanding he signed. Photo: AFP

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Analysts say Washington appears to be making more concessions, but the shaky agreement is unlikely to guarantee lasting peace


Analysts say Washington appears to be making more concessions, but the shaky agreement is unlikely to guarantee lasting peace.


Can the US-Iran deal survive a defiant Israel and Hormuz uncertainties?

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Analysts say Washington appears to be making more concessions, but the shaky agreement is unlikely to guarantee lasting peace

Analysts say Washington appears to be making more concessions, but the shaky agreement is unlikely to guarantee lasting peace