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Vanessa Cai

Israel’s efforts to phase out American military aid signal the decline of US alliances under the demands of Washington’s “America first” position, according to a prominent Chinese international relations analyst.
Zhu Zhaoyi, executive director of the Institute of Middle East Studies at Peking University HSBC Business School, wrote in a commentary published on Monday that factors such as rising financial pressures had fuelled an “America first” approach that demanded Washington’s allies shoulder more of their own security costs.
The commentary was published by the Greater Bay Area Review, a social media account launched by the Institute for International Affairs, Qianhai (IIA) at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, and the Centre for China Studies (CCS) at the Chinese University of Hong Kong.
“Israel’s effort to ‘wean itself off’ American aid fits neatly into this broader trend – a challenge that Nato members, Japan, South Korea, and Gulf states may all eventually face,” Zhu wrote.
The US and Israel on June 5 began negotiations on a successor to the current memorandum of understanding (MOU) governing American military aid to Israel.
The negotiations were launched following comments by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu advocating a gradual phase-out of US aid.
In January, Netanyahu said in an interview that he hoped to “taper off” Israel’s reliance on US military aid over the next decade.
Since Trump’s return to the White House last year, Washington has also warned that its allies – including those in Europe – could no longer rely on American security guarantees and must take charge of their own defence.


Zhu noted that a turning point for deeper US-Israeli military ties came in the 1960s.
The aid relationship was truly institutionalised after the 1973 Yom Kippur War. Following the conflict, US aid to Israel ceased to be ad hoc emergency support and instead became a permanent fixture.
The Yom Kippur War, also known as the October War, was fought in October 1973 between Israel and a coalition of Arab states led by Egypt and Syria.
According to Zhu, the 2024 decision by then US president Joe Biden to delay the delivery of a shipment of military aid was the first time Israel realised that the supply pipeline from Washington “could be turned off at any moment”.
Following the most recent US-Israel strikes on Iran, any lasting peace deal faces uncertainties from Israel, which has viewed Iran as its most dangerous enemy for decades.
Hours before the news of the deal emerged, Israeli forces launched air strikes on southern suburbs of Lebanon’s capital, Beirut, in what it said was a response to the Iran-backed armed group Hezbollah firing towards northern Israel. Iran threatened to retaliate.
In Monday’s commentary, Zhu said that, politically, Israel’s freedom to make pre-emptive decisions was narrow.
“More importantly, the more Israel depends on American weaponry, the more its military operations become subject to the scrutiny of US domestic politics,” Zhu said.
“When the aircraft dropping bombs and the artillery shells striking targets are American-made, civilian casualties in Gaza cease to be solely Israel’s problem. They become a political burden for Washington as well.”
“Public pressure in the US can then be translated back into restrictions on how Israel conducts war. The essence of aid is a form of political liability that cannot easily be shaken off.”
Although the US and Israel are allies, their objectives in the Middle East “have never fully aligned”, according to Zhu.
“Washington seeks to manage escalation, stabilise energy markets, maintain ties with Gulf states, avoid being dragged into major wars and shift strategic attention towards the Indo-Pacific,” he wrote.
“Israel’s goals are more immediate: eliminating nearby threats, striking Iran and its network of proxies, and ensuring border security,” he said.
He added that when Israel sought escalation, the US might want de-escalation, while when Washington favoured negotiation, Israel might be forced to compromise.
“The more important US aid becomes, the greater Washington’s leverage,” Zhu said.
Looking ahead, Zhu suggested that Israel was unlikely to be significantly harmed by a lack of American aid.
He added that what Netanyahu really wanted to shed was Israel’s label as an “aid recipient”, rather than its alliance with the US.
Zhu said Israel sought “to reduce fiscal dependence while preserving systemic integration and achieving greater equality in status”.
Meanwhile, Washington wants Israel to reduce its fiscal dependence while continuing to buy American weapons, operate within US-led systems, and serve a broader US strategy in the Middle East, according to Zhu.
“America wants Israel to spend less American money, but not to step outside America’s sphere of influence.”
Zhu noted that a bigger question concerned the future of American hegemony itself.
“As more allies are asked to pay for their own security, and as even Israel – the foremost beneficiary of US assistance – begins contemplating a dignified exit from aid dependence, one must ask whether the alliance system sustained for more than half a century by dollars and weapons may also be quietly approaching the end of its own era.”


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How Israel’s exit from US aid signals wider decline in Washington’s alliances

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (left), shown here with US President Donald Trump in December, has said he hopes to “taper off” Israel’s reliance on US military aid over the next decade. Photo: Reuters

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‘America first’ approach forces allies to shoulder security costs, raising questions about the future of US hegemony, Chinese analyst says


‘America first’ approach forces allies to shoulder security costs, raising questions about the future of US hegemony, Chinese analyst says.


How Israel’s exit from US aid signals wider decline in Washington’s alliances

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}‘America first’ approach forces allies to shoulder security costs, raising questions about the future of US hegemony, Chinese analyst says

‘America first’ approach forces allies to shoulder security costs, raising questions about the future of US hegemony, Chinese analyst says